2012 Republican Calendar - The Road to Tampa Bay

2,286 total delegates. 1,144 needed to nominate.  Overview  |  Totals.  
Tallies from other news organizations: CNN, New York Times (AP), Real Clear Politics
GOP Unbound 2012 "the social 2012 Republican delegate count" for iPhone and iPod touch
Older RNC tallies: March 2, March 9, March 16

     revised May 15, 2012
Date
State
 Contest
 RNC
 CD
 AL
 Total
Jan. 3
 Iowa
 Precinct Caucuses
 3
 12
 13
 28
 +
Jan. 10
 New Hampshire
 Primary


12*
 +
Jan. 21
 South Carolina
 Primary


25*
 +
Jan. 31
 Florida
 Primary


50*
 +








Feb. 4
 Nevada
 Precinct Caucuses
 3
 12
 13
 28
 +
Feb. 7*
 Colorado
 Precinct Caucuses
 3
 21
 12
 36
 +

Minnesota
 Precinct Caucuses
 3
 24
 13
 40
 +
Feb. 4-Feb. 11
 Maine
 Municipal Caucuses
 3
 6
 15
 24
 +
Feb. 28
 Arizona
 Primary


29*
 +

Michigan
 Primary


30*
 +








Mar. 3
 Washington
 Precinct Caucuses
 3
 30
 10
 43
 +
Mar. 6
 Alaska
 District Conventions
 3
 3
 21
 27
 +

Georgia
 Primary
 3
 42
 31
 76

Idaho
 Caucus
 3
 6
 23
 32

Massachusetts
 Primary
 3
 27
 11
 41

North Dakota
 Caucus
 3
 3
 22
 28

Ohio
 Primary
 3
 48
 15
 66

Oklahoma
 Primary
 3
 15
 25
 43

Tennessee
 Primary
 3
 27
 28
 58

Vermont
 Primary
 3
 3
 11
 17

Virginia
 Primary
 3
 33
 13
 49
Mar. 6-10
 Wyoming
 County Conventions
 3
 3
 23
 29
 +
Mar. 10 Guam
 Territorial Convention
 3
6
 9
 +

No. Mariana Islands
 Territorial Convention
 3
6
 9
 +

Kansas
 CD Caucus
 3
 12
 25
 40
 +

Virgin Islands
 Territorial Caucus
 3
6
 9
 +
Mar. 13
 Alabama
 Primary
 3
 21
 26
 50
 +

Am. Samoa
 Territorial Convention
 3
6
 9

Hawaii
 Precinct Caucuses
 3
 6
 11
 20

Mississippi
 Primary
 3
 12
 25
 40
Mar. 17
 Missouri
 Local Caucuses
 3
 24
 25
 52
 +
Mar. 18
 Puerto Rico
 Primary
 3
20
 23
 +
Mar. 20
 Illinois
 Primary
 3
 54
 12
 69
 +
Mar. 24
 Louisiana
 Primary
 3
 18
 25
 46
 +








Apr. 3
 Maryland
 Primary
 3
 24
 10
 37
 +

Washington, DC
 Primary
 3
16
 19

Wisconsin
 Primary
 3
 24
 15
 42
Apr. 24
 Connecticut
 Primary
 3
 15
 10
 28
 +

Delaware
 Primary
 3
 3
 11
 17

New York
 Primary
 3
 81
 11
 95

Pennsylvania
 Primary
 3
 54
 15
 72

Rhode Island
 Primary
 3
 6
 10
 19







May 8
 Indiana
 Primary
 3
 27
 16
 46

North Carolina
 Primary
 3
 39
 13
 55

West Virginia
 Primary
 3
 9
 19
 31
May 15
 Nebraska
 Non-Binding Primary
 3
 9
 23
 35

Oregon
 Primary
 3
 15
 10
 28
May 22
 Arkansas
 Primary
 3
 12
 21
 36

Kentucky
 Primary
 3
 18
 24
 45
May 29
 Texas
 Primary
 3
 108
 44
 155








Jun. 5
 California
 Primary
 3
 159
 10
 172

Montana
 Non-Binding Primary
 3
 3
 20
 26

New Jersey
 Primary
 3
 36
 11
 50

New Mexico
 Primary
 3
 9
 11
 23

South Dakota
 Primary
 3
 3
 22
 28
Jun. 26
 Utah
 Primary
 3
 12
 25
 40








Notes:
- The Missouri primary on February 7 was non-binding; Missouri Republicans started their process on March 17.
 
- The Texas primary date was not set until March 1, 2012 to legal battle over redistricting.  The primary was scheduled for April 3, then moved to May 29.

- Penalties per Rule 16 are -
New Hampshire - 12 delegates. 
South Carolina - 25 delegates. 
Florida - 49 delegates. 
Arizona - 29 delegates. 
Michigan - 29 delegates.

- In terms of the number of delegates each of the candidates has won at a particular point in the campaign, one often sees different numbers reported.  The RNC presents one set of numbers, various news organizations have estimates, and the campaigns themselves have their own tallies.  Differences arise because news organizations add in information they have developed about unbound/unpledged delegates and delegates gained as state processes move through county, district and state conventions; the RNC numbers are very conservative.  As an example on March 30, here is what different organizationas were reporting:

Romney
 Santorum
 Gingrich
 Paul
 Unbound
CNN*
 		571
 264
 137
 71
AP via New York Times**
 568
 273
 135
 50
Real Clear Politics 565
 256
 141
 66
RNC
 478
 182
 133
 26
 322
* CNN totals include 39 unpledged RNC (34 for Romney, 2 for Santorum and 3 for Gingrich).
**NYT/AP numbers "include the preferences of superdelegates, Republican party leaders who are free to support any candidate."

The campaigns and their allies talk up delegate prospects; see for example Romney (March 7), Santorum (PDF) (March 10), Gingrich (March 13),
Romney (March 14) and RWB Fund (PDF) (March 22).


- Although Romney has experienced quite a few bumps on the road to inevitability, by the end of March and first week of April he was seen as increasingly likely to be the nominee, being far ahead in terms of number of delegates, backing of the Republican estalishment, and available financial resources.  Politico's Mike Allen reported on March 27 that Gingrich's campaign would lay off about a third of full-time staff, although the former Speaker vowed to continue on to Tampa.  Speeches by Obama (+) and Romney (+) on March 30 outlined the broad themes of a general election match-up between the two.  Romney's wins in the three April 3 primaries further advanced that storyline.  On April 3 and 4 Obama and Romney delivered contrasting speeches (+) to newspaper editors and executives that many saw as presaging the general election.  On April 4 Romney campaign's Spencer Zwick announced formation of Romney Victory, a joint fundraising committee with Romney for President, the Republican National Committee, and several battleground fund states.  Santorum's announcement on April 10 (+) that he was suspending his bid made Romney the presumptive nominee.  In the succeeding days more of the Republican establishment including House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and another half dozen governors endorsed his candidacy.  Romney also began to make additions to his national campaign team.

[Santorum, who had been the strongest challenger to Romney, had been looking towards the April 24 primary in his home state of Pennsylvania, and his supporters wanted to press on (+), although others were calling for him to bow out, saying it was time for unity.  A confluence of factors including the health of his daughter Bella and the possibility that he might lose in his home state prompted Santorum to end his campaign]. 

The prospect of a brokered convention, which changes in Republican rules made more likely than in past cycles, dwindled, but there was still considerable uneasiness over Romney's prospects, and some delegate mathematicians who believed Romney would not quite be able to achieve the requisite 1,144.

Newt Gingrich pressed on, presenting himself as the conservative alternative.  In an April 20 memo (+) his campaign manager highlighted Romney's weaknesses, pointed out there were 17 states remaining, and cited the example of Ronald Reagan's campaign in 1976.  "If Newt does well in North Carolina, it could -- just as it did for Reagan -- set off a firestorm in places like Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas and California," Vince Haley wrote.  The scenario had one major problem.  The North Carolina primary was on May 8; Romney swept all five primaries on April 24, even tiny Delaware where Gingrich had focused his attention.  Gingrich suspended his campaign on May 2.

Ron Paul continued to draw large crowds into May (+) and his campaign worked to accumulate delegates through caucus/convention processes.  Finally on May 14 the campaign issued a statement that it would, while continuing on to the convention in Tampa, "no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted."  (1, 2, 3).