MEMO: Iowa State of the Race

TO: Interested Parties

FROM: Kane Miller, Hillary for Iowa State Director

DATE: Thursday, November 3, 2016

With just two days until the start of GOTV, it’s clearer than ever that Iowa is going to be decided by one of the slimmest margins in the country. In the year and a half since Hillary Clinton announced her run for President, grassroots supporters have been actively building an unrivaled organization that is now primed to deliver the margin of victory over the final days of this campaign and deliver Iowa’s six electoral votes for Hillary Clinton.

Due to an unquestionably superior ground game, Democrats hold a clear lead as we head into the home stretch. More than 42,000 Democrats have voted early than have Republicans so far this year.

Registered Democrats have accounted for 43% of all early votes in Iowa, with Republicans trailing behind at 35%. No Party voters make up 23% of all early voters, and considering Donald Trump’s record of insulting and degrading women, minorities, those with disabilities, and even Gold Star families, we expect many of those No Party votes to break for Hillary Clinton.

Specifically, 2016 has seen a surge of in-person early voting across the state, driven largely by increased participation among millennials and college aged voters. This year at Iowa State University, more people have voted at on-campus satellite locations than did in 2012. We expect on-campus early vote turnout to surpass 2012 totals at the University of Iowa as well, despite that campus having fewer satellite sites open this year.

We’re not done growing our lead yet, however. Johnson, Linn, Scott and Story counties still have satellite locations open the rest of the week, making it easier for more voters in these Democratic-leaning counties to cast their votes early than ever before.

And thanks to our strong on-the-ground organizing efforts, Democrats will continue to return ballots and vote early at a higher rate than Republicans.

In the month of October alone, Iowa Democratic Party staff and volunteers knocked on the doors of nearly 390,000 Iowans - and this organization is going to provide a crucial edge over Donald Trump in the closing days of this campaign.  As Election Day approaches, one thing is abundantly clear - the stakes in this election couldn’t be higher, and there is simply nothing that is going to derail our momentum.

Democrats have out-organized and out-performed Republicans in early voting, and with each passing day that margin grows. It’s getting increasingly difficult to see a scenario where Donald Trump’s non-existent organization can turn out enough voters on Election Day to overcome the significant advantage currently held by Democrats. That said, we’ve never taken anything for granted on this campaign and we’re going to finish it where it started, by fighting for every last vote until 9:00 PM on November 8th.

The choice is clear. Given the current state of the race, we expect that on November 8th, Iowans will stand up for a candidate that will stand up for our values and reject Donald Trump’s dark, divisive vision for America.