PRESS RELEASE from AFL-CIO
...see also MEMO, below
October 27, 2010
Working Families Launch
"Final Four" Get Out The Vote Push
AFL-CIO Officers
Hit Six States in Final Travel Sprint
(Washington, DC, Oct. 27) - From Saturday, October 30 through Tuesday,
November 2, working families across the country will hit the streets
for the AFL-CIO's "Final Four" GOTV push. This closing turnout
effort builds on the immense AFL-CIO Labor 2010 grassroots persuasion
program where 200,000 volunteers reached 17 million union voters in 26
states.
AFL-CIO President Trumka, Secretary-Treasurer Shuler and Executive Vice
President Holt Baker will be criss-crossing battleground states to join
union members for this final GOTV push.
"One-on-one grassroots contact will be key for this election," said
AFL-CIO Political Director Karen Ackerman. "Union families trust
and rely on the information their union provides and it cuts through
the noise of unprecedented corporate cash being spent on false
ads. Turnout will be decisive in many of these races and our
'Final Four' GOTV program is going to hold the line for candidates who
fight for working families."
For the "Final Four" GOTV push working families will:
- Have 90,000
volunteers working from 1,200 staging locations;
- Make 5.6
million phone calls;
- Knock on 4.1
million doors;
- Pass out 1.9
million fliers while talking to union members at 2,500 work sites.
This final GOTV push builds off a massive persuasion program where
union volunteers handed out over 17.5 million flyers at workplaces,
made over 23.6 million phone calls, knocked on over 1.3 million doors
and sent 18.6 million pieces of mail. This resulted in an
increase in the generic congressional ballot among union members from
D+8 to D+25 and doubled the lead for our Senate candidates among union
members.
AFL-CIO officers travel schedule:
President Trumka:
- 10/29 – GOTV
worksite leafleting and phone banking in Chicago, Illinois.
- 10/30 – GOTV
walks in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania with Congressman Sestak.
- 10/31 – GOTV
activities in Columbus, Ohio.
- 11/1 & 11/2
– GOTV activities in western Pennsylvania.
Secretary-Treasurer Shuler:
- 10/27 – GOTV
phone banking in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.
- 10/28 &
10/29 – GOTV walks and phone banking in Louisville, Kentucky.
- 10/30 – GOTV
walks in Los Angeles and Orange County, California.
- 10/31 – GOTV
walks in Denver, Colorado.
- 11/1 & 11/2
- GOTV activities in Chicago, Illinois.
Executive VP Holt Baker
- 10/28 – GOTV
phone banking in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
- 10/29 – GOTV
worksite leafleting in Bucks County, Pennsylvania.
- 10/30 – GOTV
walks and phone banking in Bridgeport, Connecticut.
- 10/31 – GOTV
activities in Cincinnati, Ohio.
- 11/1 & 11/2
– GOTV activities in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Contact: Eddie Vale (202) 637-5018
MEMO
from
AFL-CIO
October 18, 2010
To: Political Directors
From: Karen Ackerman, AFL-CIO
Political Director
Re: 'State of the
Field' – Two Weeks Out
Date: Monday, October 18, 2010
He [John Boehner] thought there was no reason for organized labor. NYT
10/14/10
INTRODUCTION
As we head into the final two weeks of the 2010 campaign I want to take
a moment to update you on the 'state of the field' of our united
AFL-CIO political program. The AFL-CIO's grassroots political
program has an incredible reach, with union families talking to 17
million of their co-workers; comprised of union members, their
families, retirees and members of Working America.
Outside the political party committees themselves, we have the largest
political mobilization operation in the country.
Union members view us, and rely on us, as a trusted source of
information. Because of it, we cut through the clutter of the
unprecedented amounts of unreported corporate cash being funneled
through the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove's right wing groups.
This direct one-on-one contact is going to make the difference in key
races.
I'm not saying there won't be losses. There will be. The
economic climate remains tough because we are still climbing out of the
economic hole George Bush and big business dug. Meanwhile, the
same corporations and right wing groups that created the economic
crisis are spending record amounts of undisclosed money to lie to
voters about which candidates will fight for the middle class.
Despite the challenges we face, we are turning working people's anger
into action and fighting for economic patriots who will stand with
working people.
Our grassroots program is going to make the difference, race by race,
to hold majorities that work for working
families. And here is why:
THE RACES WE FACE:
-
House
Math
o 39 Net Seat Gain Needed by
Republicans
o 75 Democratic Seats in Play
o 37 High Union Density Democratic
Seats in Play
o Scenario I: No Republican Losses
= GOP needs to win 52% of Democratic Seats
o Scenario II: Democrats Pick up
Four Seats = GOP needs to win 59% of Democratic Seats. ** NOTE **
The WA 08 race has recently become very competitive, opening up the
distinct possibility of a 5th pickup
o 2006: Democrats win 56% of
Republican Seats
o Holding 60% of union dense
districts means republicans require 75% of the remaining seats for
victory
o Union Voters are the firewall for
candidates that support working families
- Our
Members Are Where the Races Are
o HI-01 – 86,949 union voters
o IL-14 – 60,328 union voters
o NY-24 – 96,479
o NV-03 – 80,075 union voters
o OH-13 – 94,938
o PA-03 – 64,526 union voters
o PA-12 – 104,721
o PA-11 – 75,246 union voters
o Overall there are 37 House
battleground districts with over 40,000 union voters
-
The Math – Our Grassroots Program is Moving the Numbers
o In July, when our grassroots
program began, the generic battleground congressional ballot among
union members was D+8;
o By October 10, our grassroots
program moved that number up significantly, to D+25;
o Since these numbers are only as
of October 10 we still have nearly a full month of grassroots
campaigning to continue to move the numbers.
-
Senate
Math
o Since Labor Day, we have doubled
the margin of support for our Senate candidates among union members.
o For example, in Pennsylvania on
Labor Day, Sestak had a slim 45% to 39% lead among union members.
Since then, Sestak's lead has ballooned to 29 points (55% to 26%), a
major reason Sestak trails Toomey by a single point in the most recent
polls.
o And Pennsylvania is not the
exception. Over the last month we have seen similar margins
reached for Senators Reid, Boxer, Murray, Feingold and for
Giannoulias's campaign.
o Union members in West Virginia
know who is on their side, giving Governor Manchin a whopping 40 point
margin.
HOW OUR GRASSROOTS PROGRAM GOT US TO
WHERE WE ARE TODAY
-
Direct Member to Member Contact
o Union volunteers have given out
17.5 million leaflets, while talking to workers one-on-one, at over
4,000 worksites.
o We have made over 23.6 million
phone calls.
o We have knocked on over 1.3
million doors.
o All of these "traditional" voter
contact methods have been supplemented through our new media tools
including national and state emails, national and state websites and
blogs, Facebook and Twitter and text messages.
o We have over 2,000 release staff
from affiliated unions across the country, working with over 3,000
local union coordinators, to support the tens of thousands of union
volunteers each day who are undertaking this grassroots work.
o On just this past Saturday we
knocked on 183,000 doors.
- Direct Mail
o We have been testing and refining
our direct mail program for many cycles and found that mail is much
more effective among union members than among general public
voters. The reason is they see it as a communication from a
trusted source, their union, which they want to read. Our testing
shows union members spend much more time reading the pieces, and retain
more information from them, than the general public does. ** NOTE
** - We are finding that Republicans are most vulnerable on outsourcing
and social security and the threat they pose to workers'
rights.
o This week alone we are sending
4.1 million pieces of mail.
o Overall, we have sent 18.6
million pieces of mail so far.
o Between now and the election
there will be additional flights of GOTV mail.
- Officer
Travel
o Since July, when the political
mobilization program started, President Richard Trumka,
Secretary-Treasurer Liz Shuler and Executive Vice President Arlene Holt
Baker have been traveling the country joining working families in
grassroots activities.
o From just October 14 to October
20 they will be hitting eight states over six days – Del.; Ill.; Ind.;
Ohio; Ore.; Pa.; Texas; and Wash.
o Presidents and officers of
affiliate unions have been traveling the country extensively,
participating in grassroots activities with union members.
o More trips for officers will be
announced shortly.
-
Affiliated Organizations
o Working America is talking to
their 3.2 million members about jobs and the economy, door knocking
over 25,000 households a week. WA members are also getting direct
mail from the AFL-CIO.
o The Alliance for Retired
Americans is talking to their 4 million members through phone banks and
town halls about the dangers we face from right wing plans to privatize
social security. ARA members have also been getting direct mail
from the AFL-CIO.
o The Union Veterans Council lets
union veterans talk to their fellow vets about the issues facing them
in the election through canvassing and phone banks. This past
Saturday they joined Congressman Murphy for a large canvass in PA 08.
WHERE OUR GRASSROOTS PROGRAM IS TAKING
US
o There is Still Time on the Clock
- As I outlined above, all of this grassroots field work has moved the
polling numbers significantly. Those polling numbers are as of
October 10, leaving nearly an entire month to have a greater impact
with our voter contact. And as we know, this is when our program
is at full capacity.
o We are Already Putting Votes in
the Bank – As I write this, it's not just two weeks until Election Day,
voting has already been going on for weeks. Our field program is
tailored in each state to take into account their early voting
laws. Whether it's early voting in person, vote by mail or no
excuse absentee voting all of our activities and materials are
customized. Accordingly, we are not just talking to union
members about the candidates; we are already getting votes for them.
-- An early indication of the
effectiveness of these programs can be found in Ohio and Iowa where ABC
News reported on the disparity between Democratic and Republican early
voting. Professor Michael McDonald, an expert in voting
statistics and trends told them, "I don't know what the heck to make
out of what we're seeing out of Iowa and Ohio. I feel like I'm in
2008, it's like déjà vu all over again."
-- Another interesting example of how our
program is tailored to each state is Nevada. Starting Monday in
Las Vegas, we will have continuous shuttle bus services for union
members in the hospitality and gaming industries, to provide them
transportation to early voting sites.
o GOTV – Although early voting is
becoming more prominent, millions and millions of union members will be
voting on Election Day and will be contacted through our final massive
GOTV push. We will be providing more details on our GOTV efforts
shortly.
CONCLUSION
Looking at all of these facts and figures together in one place, it is
truly inspiring to see the massive grassroots power and reach of
millions of working families. But there is still much more work
left to do.
We still face a tough economic climate the Bush administration and big
business dumped on us.
The electorate is awash in undisclosed cash from the Chamber of
Commerce and Karl Rove.
There is no escaping the fact that there will be losses for candidates
we are supporting.
But despite the challenges we face, our grassroots program is going to
make the difference, race by race, to hold majorities that work for
working families.