DCCC Memo "Seven Reasons House Democrats Will Be Successful in November" July 2010

DCCC MEMO July 2007

Seven Reasons House Democrats Will Be Successful in November

Republican Leader John Boehner, Republican Whip Eric Cantor, and NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions have all boasted that Republicans will win the House in November. But, the Republicans cannot overcome seven obstacles this cycle:

1. Elections are a choice between two candidates
2. The NRCC has not put enough seats into play
3. The NRCC and Republican candidates can not afford to compete
4. The NRCC has recruited fatally flawed candidates
5. Republicans have a Tea Party problem
6. The NRCC has yet to show that they can win one hard election, not to mention 39 of them
7. Democrats are prepared

The bottom line: Democrats will retain a strong majority in the House.

Elections are a Choice

Just like the three special elections House Democrats won this cycle in Republican-leaning swing districts, this November, voters will have a clear choice between two candidates.

A Democratic candidate who works to get the economy on track, creates jobs, and protects Social Security.

Or a Republican candidate who wants more unpaid tax cuts for the wealthiest that add billions to the deficit, taxpayer funded tax breaks for Big Oil, removing the new checks on Wall Street, taxpayer funded tax breaks for companies that ship American jobs overseas, and privatizing Social Security and Medicare.

The Republican brand still is, as Tom Davis called it, "dog food" and the Republican agenda remains widely unpopular.

Democrats are trusted more than Republicans to handle the economy by an eight (8) point margin. [Washington Post/ABC News poll, 07/07/10]

Only 26 percent of likely voters have confidence in the Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country‘s future, trailing both Congressional Democrats and President Obama. [Washington Post/ABC News poll, 07/07/10]

NRCC Does Not Have Enough Seats in Play to Win the House

Republicans will need to win 39 seats to take back the House. Democrats will win at least four Republican seats (the best opportunities include: LA-02, HI-01, IL-10, DE-AL, FL-25). As a result, the real number of seats Republicans will have to pick up to win a majority is at least 43.
To win 43 seats, the NRCC would need to put 70 to 80 seats in play. The NRCC have simply not put that many Republicans seats in play and do not have the resources or caliber of candidates to do so.

As history shows, significant gains in a wave election come from open seats. In 2006 Democrats won eight of 20 competitive open seat races and in 2008 Democrats won 12 of 30 of open seat races.

Republicans will likely follow the same statistical trend – meaning there are not nearly enough opens in play. This cycle, there are only 20 Democratic open seats, including several that are in safe districts. If Republicans have a great election night, they would still only win 50 percent of the Democratic open seats. Conservatively, Republicans would then need to beat 35 Democratic incumbents to win the House – which is simply not possible given the Republicans resources deficit.

Republicans Can Not Afford to Compete in Enough Seats to Win

The NRCC does not have enough money to compete in more than 30 districts and there are not enough well financed Republican candidates.

The DCCC has$16.78 million cash on hand advantage over the NRCC.

When the tables were turned and Democrats were in the minority in 2006, the DCCC already had a $4.8 million COH advantage over the NRCC at this point in the cycle…and yet could only afford to pick up 30 seats.

It is nearly impossible for a challenger to overcome two-to-one cash on hand advantage and defeat an incumbent.

32 of 42 challengers to Frontline Members, Democrats‘ most threatened incumbents, have more than a two-to-one cash on hand deficit, and 20 of those challengers have more than a four-to-one cash on hand deficit

26 of the NRCC‘s candidates challenging non-Frontline targeted Members have more than two-to-one cash on hand deficit and 20 have more than a four to one cash-on-hand deficit.

Fatally Flawed Republican Recruits

The NRCC has not recruited high caliber candidates capable of beating incumbent Members. Many Republican candidates have fatal flaws. For example:

David Harmer (CA-11) – While Harmer constantly rails against TARP, the company he worked for paid him a bonus and severance after it took bailout funds.

Michele Rollins (DE-AL) – Michele Rollins lined her bank account with taxpayer dollars, saw her compensation quadruple after her firm received TARP funds, and her company paid out millions in bonuses, despite the fact that they‘ve yet to pay back tax payers.

Jon Runyan (NJ-03) – Runyan is trying to run as a fiscal conservative, but has abused the farmland assessment program to get an absurd break on his own property taxes and has repeatedly failed to pay his own taxes on time.

Jim Renacci (OH-16) – Renacci fought – in court – not to pay taxes on $13.7 million in income, while supporting three separate measures to raise property taxes in Ohio

Republicans’ Tea Party Problem

The Tea Party has presented three problems for Republicans. The most glaring problem is where the Tea Party candidate has defeated the moderate (and more electable) Republican candidate. Second, Republican candidates are being forced to take unpopular extreme positions to satisfy the ideological base to avoid defeat in their primaries. Third, we are seeing numerous Tea Party candidates run as third party candidates which is splitting the Republican vote.

Examples of moderate candidates who were beat by Tea Party candidates include: Beth Coulson (IL-10), Ethan Hastert (IL-14), Jeff Reetz (KY-03), and Jim Gibbons (IA-03)

There are more than 100 conservative third party candidates on the ballot. This is important because it lowers the win number for the Democratic candidate.

Examples of third party candidates include: Doug Hoffman (NY-23), Libertarian Linsey Sutton (OH-18), Independent Kenny Golden (VA-02), Independent Jeffrey Clark (VA-05), and U.S. Taxpayer Scott Sughney (MI-07)

NRCC Has Yet to Win a Single Tough Election

After the NRCC‘s humiliating eight point loss in PA-12, the NRCC has failed to correct any of the infrastructure or candidate problems. If the NRCC could not successfully walk and chew gum at the same time while running one election, how do they expect to do it in dozens of races?

The Cook Political Report: "Democrats out-thought, out-planned and out-executed Republicans on both sides of the equation. This [Republicans PA-12 loss] was not a candidate problem, but a problem in messaging, organization, and technical proficiency…Democrats are still operating by an expert playbook that has won races in very tough places and situations since 2006." [GOP Must Learn Right Lessons from PA-12, 5/20/10]

The Wall Street Journal: "Republicans also got outsmarted on message. The GOP's made-in-Washington strategy was to 'nationalize' the race ..." [A Republican Defeat, Wall Street Journal, 5/20/10]

Politico: "Republicans failed spectacularly, losing on a level playing field where, in this favorable environment, they should have run roughshod over the opposition. Given the resources the GOP poured into the effort to capture the seat and the decisiveness of the defeat—as it turned out, it wasn't really that close—the outcome casts serious doubt on the idea that the Democratic House majority is in jeopardy," [The GOP's special failure, Politico, 5/19/10]

Democrats are Prepared

Democrats have known from day one that this would be a challenging election cycle. As a result, Democrats are prepared and have the money, message, mobilization, and management in place to succeed.

Democrats will retain a strong majority in the House.