FR: Nathan Daschle, executive director, Democratic Governors Association

TO: Interested parties

RE: General Election Landscape: Opportunities in Governors Races

With exactly six weeks to go and the general election landscape now set in the governors races, one major development over the past six months has markedly improved conditions in an otherwise volatile and challenging landscape for Democratic gubernatorial candidates: the GOP Civil War. The rabid insistence of the party's fringe base to nominate ideological purists and extremists over pragmatic centrists has provided openings to Democrats that will blunt the impact of what seemed to be a Republican wave year on par with 1994, when Republicans netted 10 governorships.

Based on both public and internal polling, general election voters in 2010 want competence and common-sense problem-solving, not extremism or ideologically driven agenda in their governors. Instead, the GOP nominated half a dozen Christine O'Donnells in the governors races. Republicans weakened their opportunities for victory by nominating a class of candidates whose backgrounds, lack of experience and radical visions would make Sharron Angle blush.

Republicans are advancing two types of candidates in key battlegrounds this cycle: Tea Party standard-bearers and those scarred by the Tea Party. This dynamic has already helped better position Democrats in the three biggest prizes of the 2010 governors races: California, Florida and Texas. The following is a breakdown of key states where the GOP Civil War has changed race dynamics in our favor:

• California: Meg Whitman's naked attempt to buy the governorship has Californians continuing to be skeptical of her candidacy, despite record spending of nearly $120 million. In her primary, Whitman alienated herself from mainstream voters by moving far to the right on issues like immigration to beat back a late surge from Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Attorney General Jerry Brown is within single digits while Whitman's unfavs are twice her favs, according to most public polling.

• Colorado. Tea Party/Tinfoil Hat nominee Dan Maes has been abandoned by national Republicans in this 2012 battleground state. His candidacy falls so short of meeting the standard for holding public office that Tom Tancredo, himself a discredited extremist, is running as a third party candidate in the state. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper has a healthy double-digit lead, according to public polling.
  

• Florida: Rick Scott, the Madoff of Medicare, led a company that committed fraud against taxpayers and seniors on such a massive scale that it was forced to pay $1.7 billion - the largest fine ever. With the backing of Tea Party groups, Scott beat out career politician Bill McCollum. He's the type of person who is willing to take the fifth 75 times in a deposition about his leadership. Scott now faces even more damaging revelations about his fraudulent business practices - including recent news that he was aware of warnings inside his company that Medicare rules were being flaunted. Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who is running on a platform of common-sense leadership and restoring the economy, is maintaining a single-digit lead in most public polling.

• Georgia: Nathan Deal, one of the most corrupt members of Congress, is the Christine O'Donnell of the South. Like O'Donnell, his personal financial problems are creating an uproar in Georgia, as he failed to report his millions in debt and is reportedly near bankruptcy or foreclosure. Former Gov. Roy Barnes is in a dead heat with Deal, with the momentum on Barnes' side.
  

• Illinois: Bill Brady, another Tea Party candidate, emerged from the hard-fought GOP primary. Since then, he has proposed such radical ideas as lowering the minimum wage in a recession and he has sponsored legislation for the mass gassing of dogs and cats. While this race remains tight, Brady's extremist views and incompetence give Gov. Pat Quinn an opening in the final weeks.

• Maine: Tea Partier Paul LePage melted down and swore at reporters in recent press conferences when they asked him why he didn't pay property taxes in Maine. LePage not only ran as a Tea Partier but also has the backing of a state party that adopted the Tea Party platform at its convention. There is no available public polling since LePage's dramatic outburst. 
  

• Minnesota: Tom Emmer surged to his nomination only with the last-minute blessing of Sarah Palin and her Tea Party backers. In the general election, he has proposed one radical idea after the other, including his assertion that restaurant employees make too much money and their minimum wage should be reduced. He also defends a Christian rock group that suggests executing homosexuals should be applauded. His extremist views sparked a nationwide boycott of Target Corp. after the company donated to efforts to elect Emmer. Recent polling shows Mark Dayton in the lead.

• New York: Tea Party candidate Carl Paladino defeated longtime politico Rick Lazio. Paladino's laundry list of scandals, whether it's his bestiality emails or his statements that people in public housing should take hygiene lessons, put him in a class to himself. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads by healthy double digits in public polling.
  

• Texas: Part-time Governor Rick Perry is more interested in running against Washington, in selling his future book and in relaxing in his $10,000-a-month taxpayer funded luxury mansion than he is in solving the state's ever-expanding budget hole. Perry, who hinted that the state should secede from the union in his primary, is losing moderate supporters to Houston Mayor Bill White. He's further alienating voters by refusing to debate White, who just earned the endorsement of the Houston Chronicle. Public polling shows the race in a dead heat.

Democrats continue to have strong pickup opportunities in additional states that Republicans now control, including Connecticut, Hawaii Rhode Island and Vermont.

In addition to pickup opportunities for our party, Democratic incumbents, despite the historic trends and the worst recession in generations, are faring well in making their case to voters. We are winning or neck-and-neck in most of our incumbent races. We will continue to aggressively support incumbent governors who are well-positioned to win tight races across the map in Ohio, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Maryland, Iowa, Illinois and Arkansas.

What to look for in the weeks ahead

With a historic and political environment that would seem to favor the GOP, leading Republicans like Newt Gingrich have all but guaranteed that the party will pick up even more than the 10 governorships they clinched in 1994. What Republicans are ignoring, however, are factors that are unique to 2010.

First, damage from the GOP Civil War has been substantial. The unorthodox candidates and their radical positions will, we believe, provide further opportunities for Democratic candidates.

Second, this is not the GOP of 1994. The party of 2010 is marked by division, cynicism and extremism. There is no groundswell of support for the GOP, as there was in 1994, because this GOP isn't offering new ideas or a constructive, positive vision of our country.

Finally, thanks to strong Democratic candidates and incumbents who are running on an agenda of common-sense solutions and restoring our economy, our party is in a competitive position in our targeted states. Reinforcing these individual campaigns is a record-breaking $50 million DGA campaign - the largest in our history - that will exploit every opportunity to defend incumbents and win key races, particularly California, Florida and Texas.