NRCC MEMO: THE DEMS' "RUN FOR COVER SUMMER"

FROM: NRCC CHAIRMAN PETE SESSIONS
TO: REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
DATE: JULY 30, 2010
SUBJECT: THE DEMS' "RUN FOR COVER SUMMER"
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On behalf of the NRCC and Vice Chairman Greg Walden, I want to commend each and every Republican candidate who is on the campaign trail selling the fight and helping us achieve our goal of retiring Nancy Pelosi. As Congress adjourns for a six week August recess, it is all the more important that Republican candidates build on the success we have achieved thus far.

Democrats may have lost the month of August last year, but their actions this coming month could very well decide just how many seats they will lose in November. Since last summer, House Democrats have done everything they can to ignore and evade the concerns of the voters who elected them. Now, in what was originally billed as the "Recovery Summer," Democrats plan to spend the next month asking voters to overlook their job-killing policies by distracting them with dishonest attacks on Republican candidates. But this is much more than just a political strategy against Republicans – it is yet another insult to the American people whose voices have been ignored by Democrats for the past 18 months. Republican candidates will not be taking the bait, and neither will the hard-working Americans who have been affected by Nancy Pelosi's big-government agenda in Washington. Soon, "Recovery Summer" may well be known as the Democrats' "Run for Cover Summer."

Since last summer, Democrats have done their best to avoid confrontation, hiding from the constituents who elected them:

"With images of overheated, finger-waving crowds still seared into their minds from the discontent of last August, many Democrats heeded the advice of party leaders and tried to avoid unscripted question-and-answer sessions." (Jeff Zeleny, "Democrats Skip Town Halls to Avoid Voter Rage," New York Times, 06/06/10)
 
Now President Obama and Speaker Pelosi are urging House Democrats to distract voters and launch dishonest attacks on Republican campaigns:

"House Democrats plan a six-week messaging campaign for the August recess in which they'll warn voters that putting Republicans back in power would mark a return to failed George W. Bush administration policies." (Michael O'Brien, "Democrats' summer strategy," The Hill, 07/27/10)

"…[T]he DNC will unveil a ten point blue print on how they claim the ‘Republican-Tea Party' would govern if they reclaim the majority in Congress in the midterm elections." (Paul Steinhauser, "Dems label GOP as 'Republican-Tea Party,'" CNN Political Ticker, 07/28/10)

The fact is that no amount of spin or political attacks will save Speaker Pelosi and her party from being held accountable for their unpopular agenda on Election Day.

Regardless of whether vulnerable Democrats actually choose to follow this advice from party leaders, Republican candidates should continue doing everything in their power to get in front of voters over this recess period. House Republicans plan to be visible and active over the course of the next six weeks, discussing solutions with their constituents on how Washington can empower the free enterprise system and learn to live within its own means. Republican candidates should not only continue to call out their Democrat opponents for their unpopular policies, they should continue to engage voters in a dialogue about their positive plans to lessen our tax burden, get our economy moving again and get America – and Washington – back to work.

Democrats have their backs against the wall for good reason. With momentum on the side of our party in several key campaign indicators, Republican candidates not only have a golden opportunity to engage with voters – they have an obligation to do so in order to make our case and set the stage for the coming months:

GOP CHALLENGERS LEADING INCUMBENTS IN POLLS: Two dozen public polls showing GOP challengers leading and several more showing Democrat incumbents in the mid-40s.

REPUBLICANS MAINTAIN LEAD IN GENERIC BALLOT: Real Clear Politics Generic Ballot Average: Republicans 44.7, Democrats 44.1 (R+3.3)

PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL DIPPING: "A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Mr. Obama's approval rating dipping to 45 percent in June, from 50 percent in May. Recent election history shows that presidential approval of 50 percent or higher is critical for the party in power to avoid major mid-term losses in Congress." (John Harwood, "Obama Approval Rating Slips to 45%: NBC-WSJ Poll," CNBC, 6/23/10)

NRCC CLOSING FUNDRAISING GAP:

• June marked the NRCC's highest revenue month for the cycle, highest revenue quarter for the cycle, and highest revenue month since July 2008.
• NRCC's best June fundraising figure since 2006
• Best 2nd Quarter fundraising for the NRCC in five years
• Increased COH by $5million, putting us $8.5 million ahead of June 2008 cash on hand.
• In the first six months of 2010, the NRCC has increased its cash on hand by $11.3million more than Jan-June 2008.
• The NRCC has raised more in the first six months of 2010 than all of 2009.
• As recently as December 2009, we faced a 6-to-1 cash on hand disadvantage with the DCCC.
• Historically, the NRCC outperforms the DCCC in the last half of the election year.

POLITICAL ANALYSTS CONTINUE TO PREDICT GOP GAINS:

"We reiterate our view that substantial Republican gains are inevitable and are increasing our target for most likely GOP gains from 25-30 seats to 28-33 seats. However, it is important to note that considerably larger Republican gains in excess of 39 seats are quite possible." (Rothenberg Political Report, 7/19/10)

"Since last summer, the Cook Political Report has been predicting a very tough political environment for Democrats come November, with severe losses likely, significantly greater than the average first-term midterm loss of 16 seats in the House…" (Charlie Cook, "Democratic Pressure Points," Cook Political Report, 6/8/10)
 
It's clear that the Democrats' policies have already failed – and that's why they are employing a political strategy for the coming months that only aims to distract from their record. As long as Republican candidates stay on offense, the Democrats' political games will flop as well. With less than 100 days to go before the election, Republicans cannot afford to let Democrats off the hook for saddling our country with a burden of reckless spending and record deficits that our children and grandchildren will be forced to pay for years to come.

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