NRCC October 5, 2010 Memo "Pushing the Boundaries of the House Playing Field"

MEMO from the National Republican Congressional Committee

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC CHAIRMAN PETE SESSIONS
DATE: OCTOBER 5, 2010
SUBJECT: PUSHING THE BOUNDARIES OF THE HOUSE PLAYING FIELD

Now that October is here, the final month of the campaign is upon us and Democrats are still on their heels as candidates begin to make their closing arguments. Democrats made a mad dash for the exits when they voted to adjourn Congress without putting a stop to the job-killing Obama tax hikes in order to return to the campaign trail. Now, they once again face the harsh reality that voters are eager to hold them accountable for the destructive agenda they have put in place over the last 21 months. Republican candidates continue to campaign against reckless items like the failed ‘stimulus,’ the government takeover of healthcare, the National Energy Tax, failure to pass a budget, and now the Obama tax hikes. The record accumulated by House Democrats during the current Congress proves that this majority is incapable of governing according to the will of the American people.

We need to look no farther than the current playing field to see how badly the political environment has deteriorated for the majority party. Throughout the summer and now into the fall, the playing field has continuously expanded, pulling once-safe Democrats into the fray to join their endangered colleagues. While many scoffed even at the idea of a Republican majority when the current Congress convened in January 2009, the size of the playing field confirms that the House is in play. The Rothenberg Political Report now puts 86 Democrat-held seats in danger of flipping to the Republican column.

Democrats have already begun to admit as much. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already started cutting ad time for districts that appear beyond saving. As Democrats across the country are forced to play defense, the DCCC has told many incumbents – and some open-seat candidates – that they are on their own. Due to significant independent expenditure cuts in states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, and Illinois, the DCCC has signaled that Republican candidates in these battleground districts should be considered the prohibitive favorites for victory in November.

Exacerbating the problem for Democrats: As Election Day gets closer, competitive seats continue to appear in places where few expected. Rothenberg recently moved Rep. Tim Bishop’s Long Island, New York seat into the “Toss-Up/Tilt Democrat” column, one of his most competitive rankings. The NRCC is now airing ads to make a serious play for retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt’s Massachusetts congressional district. And Democrats have found themselves paying to play defense in the most unexpected places. The DCCC has placed major ad buys in the districts of Phil Hare in Illinois and Sanford Bishop in Georgia – Democrats who were not found on anyone’s watch list just a few months ago.

Republican congressional candidates are also enjoying the prospects of a significant boost from strong upticket performances by Republican nominees. In key congressional districts in states like Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa, Republican House candidates will likely benefit from strong performances by top-notch gubernatorial and Senate candidates. In a midterm election where turnout could be a key factor in deciding which party holds a majority in Congress, enthusiasm for GOP candidates at the top of the ticket will benefit Republicans in battleground districts.

Thanks to the hard work of Republican candidates and members of Congress, our prospects for November are bright heading into the final stretch of the campaign. In publicly-available polling in key districts nationwide, Republican challenger and open-seat candidates have either earned an advantage or have put themselves in a strong position to win. The RealClearPolitics average of the generic congressional ballot shows the GOP with a 3.5-point lead – a margin that could allow the GOP to win the requisite 39 seats. Making life even more difficult for Democrats on the campaign trail, Gallup finds President Obama’s average approval rating sitting at a paltry 45 percent.

Republicans have spent the last 21 months putting the pieces in place for a majority in 2011. All factors indicate that our hard work will pay off if we continue to hold Democrats accountable for the reckless Obama-Pelosi agenda. With less than a month to go, it’s clear that Democrats will, at the very least, lose functional control of the House. The next four weeks will determine the extent of their losses. Americans deserve a Congress that is willing to listen to the voice of the people. With Republicans on the brink of large gains, it’s now time to close the deal.

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