MEMO from National Republican
Congressional Committee
TO: REPUBLICAN MEMBERS OF CONGRESS AND CANDIDATES
FROM: NRCC CHAIRMAN PETE SESSIONS
DATE: JUNE 9, 2010
SUBJECT: WHAT SUPER TUESDAY TOLD US
Though the five months between now and Election Day might seem like an
eternity in politics, at least one thing is clear: Top tier Republican
candidates are solidifying the playing field and ensuring that the GOP
will challenge more than enough Democrat-held seats to put the majority
in play. As we enter the height of the campaign season, both the field
of candidates and the issues at hand are becoming crystal clear and
they all bode poorly for Democrats. A significant number of Republican
candidates in targeted races have cleared the final hurdle before the
general election. They are now ready to dedicate the next five months
to holding their opponents accountable for an agenda that has been
entirely ineffective in stemming the tide of a devastating recession
and, in the eyes of many voters, has actually made the situation worse.
Combined with a political environment that grows more turbulent by the
day, Democrats will be on the run from now until November.
GOP CANDIDATES ALREADY CAMPAIGNING FOR
NOVEMBER
With over 50 percent of the country’s primaries now behind us, top-tier
Republican candidates are already playing offense against Democrats in
over 40 seats – a larger number than we need to win back the majority.
These top-tier candidates have either already won their primaries or
are on pace to win the Republican nomination, which will allow them
focus on their path to victory with an eye toward November.
Contrary to assertions that recent contested primaries have left the
GOP divided, we need to look no further than last night’s results to
see that strong candidates have emerged to give Republicans the best
possible chance for victory in November. By and large the primary
contests that have taken place have served to strengthen the respective
candidacies of those like Robert Hurt and Scott Rigell in Virginia and
Kristi Noem in South Dakota. In these districts and countless others,
Republicans and independents are quickly coalescing around GOP nominees
in a concerted effort to send Democrats a message on Election Day.
From a district-by-district standpoint, the numbers are stacked against
the Democrats. The Cook Political Report has consistently predicted “a
very tough political environment for Democrats come November, with
severe losses likely, significantly greater than the average first-term
midterm loss of 16 seats in the House.”
REPUBLICANS SURGE ON THE GENERIC BALLOT
An abundance of quality Republican candidates makes life difficult
enough for establishment Democrats, but recent polling is even more
troubling for the majority party. A survey released last week by the
Gallup Organization revealed the best showing for Republicans on the
generic ballot in the history of the polling firm. Republicans
climbed to a 49%-43% lead over Democrats while also maintaining a
15-point advantage in voter enthusiasm. According to Real Clear
Politics, this indicates an even wider advantage for Republicans once
likely voters are taken into consideration.
Yesterday’s Gallup Poll builds on the anti-establishment mood that has
been developing for well over a year. Sixty percent of registered
voters believe that it’s time for new blood in Congress, representing
one of the highest measures of anti-incumbency since Gallup began
tracking the question. For a party that controls every level of
government in Washington, this predominant national mood will present
serious problems.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: DEMOCRATS HAVE NO
PLAN FOR JOB GROWTH
It’s not difficult to see why the American people are ready to give up
on this Democrat majority. From day one, it’s been clear that the aim
of their legislative agenda has been advancing political goals rather
than presenting a plan to stem an ongoing economic crisis and put the
country back on track. The failed stimulus, the National Energy Tax,
the government takeover of healthcare, and a litany of unnecessary and
wasteful spending bills all present a convincing case: This Democrat
majority is either committed to forcing through an agenda that stands
in the way of economic recovery or simply is not capable of creating
legislation that eases the burden of spending and debt on the economy
and puts Americans back to work. Even the Obama administration’s budget
director said that sending budget cuts to Capitol Hill Democrats would
be a “fruitless exercise” that would “go nowhere.”
Now, it looks as though House Democrats will refuse to pass a budget
for the upcoming fiscal year. Instead of creating a plan that cuts
government spending, decreases the size of the federal government, and
restores fiscal responsibility, Democrats have decided that they will
continue spending at will – and they refuse to give the American people
a blueprint on how their taxpayer money will be used. Despite the
prevailing notion that the viability of the Democrat majority depends
on the country’s economic outlook over the coming months, the
Democrats’ election strategy appears to be pursuing business as usual
and hoping for the best.
AN UNPRECEDENTED POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
Adding to the laundry list of challenges facing Democrats as they
attempt to hold onto the House of Representatives is a developing
political reality that they refuse to accept. As they push forward with
their unpopular agenda and runaway spending spree, Americans are left
dealing with the consequences of a faltering economy. The national
unemployment rate now stands at 9.7 percent, a figure never before seen
in an election year. In fact, according to nonpartisan election analyst
Charlie Cook, unemployment has never been above nine percent for an
entire election year since the Great Depression.
The troubling mix of anti-incumbent attitudes, a toxic political
environment, and a faltering economy means that Democrats are facing a
monumental challenge, the severity of which may very well continue
growing throughout the summer. Combined with a field of aggressive
Republican candidates who will be able to spend the next several months
holding the majority accountable for its reckless political agenda,
Democrats will be playing heavy defense from now through Election Day.
With five months to go, Republicans have established a foundation of
candidates that will only grow as we continue our fight to retire Nancy
Pelosi and take back the majority in the House of Representatives.
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