"As the largest swing state in the nation,
with 10 media markets and an electorate that is representative of the
nation as a whole, Florida is always a critical test for presidential
candidates and their campaigns. A candidate must to be able to win in
Florida to win the White House. Our early primary ensures that
Floridians will once again play a crucial role in selecting the GOP
nominee." --RPOF Chairman Lenny Curry
Pushing to the Front
As they did in the 2008 cycle, Republican leaders in
the
Florida
legislature looked to set an early primary. On May 19, 2011
Gov. Rick Scott
(R) signed an elections law (+)
that
among
other
provisions
established
a
ten-person
Presidential
Preference
Primary
Date
Selection
Committee
which
was
to
pick
a
date
(between
Jan.
3,
2012
and
March
6,
2012)
by
October
1, 2011.
On Sept. 16, 2011 the members of the committee were announced (+). In its efforts to
maintain a more measured primary calendar, the RNC
actively
worked for months to restrain Florida efforts to hold an early primary,
but it
was all for
naught. On
Sept. 30, 2011,
the
Date Selection Committee voted 7-2 to set the date of the presidential
preference primary on January 31, 2012 in violation of RNC and DNC
rules.
Shaping the Race
Even before the primary on January 31,
Florida had a significant impact on
the Republican race. By moving the primary forward, Florida
Republicans
prompted the traditional early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South
Carolina to move the dates of their contests forward, compressing the
calendar.
The Republican Party of Florida's Presidency 5 (P5) event in Orlando on September 22-24, 2011 propelled businessman Herman Cain to the top tier of candidates and put a damper on Rick Perry's prospects even before his famous brain freeze episode. Almost 3,500 delegates from around Florida gathered for the event, and when the straw poll results were tallied Cain had finished a surprising first with 37.1% followed by Rick Perry (15.4%), Mitt Romney (14.0%) and others in the field following.
A Big State Poses Big Challenges
With a diverse population of 18.8 million, 67 counties
and 10 media markets (+), Florida poses
huge challenges to the campaigns that made it through the first-in-the
nation contests. A key
question to look at is which campaigns have the resources to compete
effectively.
Hispanics comprise a significant proportion of the
electorate. According to Pew Hispanic Center analysis (+),
in
2008
1,844,000
eligible
voters
(14.5%
of
the
total)
were
Latino.
The
Hispanic
population of Miami-Dade County is over 1.5
million (behind only Los Angeles County, CA and Harris County, TX).
The 2000 Bush v. Gore debacle in Florida highlighted
the importance of
the Sunshine State. In 2010 Florida saw another closely fought
race as Rick Scott (R) defeated Alex Sink (D) by a margin of 48.9% to
47.7%. Florida will clearly be a battleground state in Fall
2012 (1,
2).
As a result of reapportionment following the 2010 Census,
Florida has 29 electoral votes (an increase of two), tying it with New
York as the third biggest block. As a measure of Florida's
importance in the Fall, Republicans selected Tampa-St. Petersburg as
the site of their national convention; from Aug. 27-30, 2012 the state
will again be center stage.