There were two scenarios. If President Obama were re-elected, one expected to see substantial re-tooling of his Administration. If voters elected a new president, he or she would have to make effective use of the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day so as to "hit the ground running."
The 2012 Transition
After the excitement of
Election Night, it is time to turn attention to governing. The
two transition scenarios were re-election of the President Obama and a
revamping of the government, or election of a President Romney and a
complete overhaul.
Had he been elected as he and his campaign expected, former Gov. Mitt Romney was ready to hit the ground running. Former Utah Governor and HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt headed Romney's transition efforts starting in May 2012. As a result of the Pre-Election Presidential Transition Act of 2010, Romney had the resources to open a large transition office in Washington, DC in September 2012. The Romney Readiness Project, R2P, Inc., involved close to 500 people [organization], and according to reporting by Time magazine, the Romney transition cost the federal government about $8.9 million (1).
President Obama was of course re-elected, and there has been a fairly typical level of turnover in the Administration. Out of his 22-person Cabinet, eight Cabinet secretaries and several other Cabinet level officials left. There were several controversies. U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice, said to be a leading contender for Secretary of State, withdrew from consideration on Dec. 13. Obama's choice of Sen. Chuck Hagel as his nominee for Secretary of Defense generated a fair bit of opposition, primarily over his views on Israel and Iran (see ads 1, 2). After a party-line vote in the Senate Armed Service Committee on Feb. 12, the Hagel nomination failed on Feb. 14 to get enough votes for cloture in the full Senate, and was held over recess until he was finally confirmed on Feb. 26 in a 58-41 vote. Labor Secretary nominee Tom Perez ran into opposition from Republicans over concerns of liberal activism. On May 2, Obama named his Commerce and USTR picks, leaving only the Cabinet-level SBA Administrator post to be announced. (April 30 marked the first 100 days of Obama's second term).
Department |
Date
Annc'd
Resign. |
Nominee |
Date Annc'd Nom. |
Date Hearings Begun |
Date
Conf. |
|
State | H. Rodham Clinton |
Sen. John Kerry |
Dec.
21 |
Jan. 24 |
Jan. 29 |
|
Defense | Leon Panetta |
Fmr. Sen. Chuck Hagel |
Jan.
7 |
Jan. 31 |
Feb. 26 |
|
Treasury | Tim Geithner |
WH CoS Jack Lew |
Jan.
10 |
Feb. 13 |
Feb. 27 |
|
WH CoS | Jack Lew |
Dep. Nat'l Sec. Adv. Denis McDonough |
Jan.
25 |
n/a |
n/a |
|
Commerce |
Rebecca M. Blank, acting |
Mar. 18 |
PSP Capital Partners CEO Penny
Pritzker |
May 2 | May 23 |
June 25 |
OMB |
Jeffrey Zients, deputy |
Sylvia Mathews Burwell | Mar. 4 | Apr. 10 |
Apr. 24 |
|
EPA |
Lisa Jackson |
Dec. 27 |
Assist. Administrator Gina
McCarthy |
Mar. 4 |
Apr. 11 |
July 18 |
Labor |
Hilda Solis |
Jan. 9 |
Assist. AG Tom Perez |
Mar. 18 |
Apr. 18 |
July 18 |
Interior |
Ken Salazar |
Jan. 16 |
REI CEO Sally Jewell |
Feb. 6 |
Mar. 7 |
Apr. 10 |
USTR |
Ron Kirk |
Jan. 22 |
Dep. Nat'l Sec. Adv. Mike Froman |
May 2 |
June 6 |
June 19 |
Transport. |
Ray LaHood |
Jan. 29 |
Mayor Anthony Foxx |
Apr. 29 |
May 23 |
June 27 |
Energy |
Stephen Chu |
Feb. 1 |
Physics professor Ernie Moniz |
Mar. 4 |
Apr. 9 |
May 16 |
SBA |
Karen Mills |
Feb. 11 |
Turnover is not
limited to the Cabinet; for example on the
same day he announced the Hagel nomination, Obama announced John
Brennan as his nominee for director of the CIA. The Brennan
nomination provided the occasion for Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)'s 12 hour 52
minute filibuster on drones on March 7.
On the issues agenda, discussions
between the Obama Administration and congressional Republicans on how
to avert a "fiscal cliff" dominated the latter part of November and
December; ultimately a short-term deal was reached.
The horrific shootings at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newton, Connecticut on Dec. 14 elevated the issue of gun violence to the fore. Vice President Biden led a working group on gun violence, and on Jan. 16 President Obama announced proposals to address the problem. However, on April 17 legislation to expand background checks and other meaures failed in votes in the U.S. Senate.
President
Obama's strong showing among Hispanics
spurred considerable talk that immigration reform would be
addressed. A bipartisan group of senators initiated the debate on
Jan. 28, announcing a
framework for comprehensive immigration reform, and President Obama set
out his views on the issue in a speech in Las Vegas the next day.
The bipartisan "gang of Eight" introduced its bill, the "Border
Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act" (S.744),
on April 16.
Second terms can be difficult--one recalls for example
the dissatisfaction with the Iraq War and late-term economic
difficulties of President George W. Bush's tenure or the Lewinsky
scandal during President Bill Cinton's second term. By May 2013,
President Obama had hit some rough patches. In addition to the
failure on gun legislation, the Adminstration's handling of the attacks
on Benghazi. apparent political targeting at the IRS, and the challenge
of implementing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) in the face of
ongoing Republican opposition presented an environment sure to test the
president's leadership skills.
Transition Version One: Re-tooling
One can compare President Obama's 2012-13 transition with President George W. Bush's 2004-05 transition and President Bill Clinton's 1996-97 transition.
Following the 2004 election President Bush moved quickly and decisively to re-shape his Cabinet, accepting resignations from nine department secretaries in little more than one month. Bush nominated people already serving in the administration to fill most of these positions. However there was one botched nomination; Bush's first choice to replace Tom Ridge at Homeland Security, Bernard Kerik, pulled his name from consideration amid controversy. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld retained the President's support despite statements from some Senators expressing a lack of confidence.
During the transition, Bush made it clear that he intended to tackle big issues in his second term. On December 15 and 16 he convened an economic summit in Washington, DC where he emphasized his determination to address the nation's economic challenges. The conference included six panels: State of Our Economy, Tax and Regulatory Burdens, The High Costs of Lawsuit Abuse, Making Healthcare More Affordable, Financial Challenges for Today and Tomorrow, and Preparing for the Jobs of the 21st Century.
Following the 1996
election, President Clinton accepted resignations of seven department
secretaries as well as White House Chief of Staff Leon Panetta and
Senior Policy Advisor
George Stephanopoulos.
Transition Version Two: Hit the Ground Running
If the incumbent is defeated, the new president-elect and his transition team must make effective use of the time between Election Day and the Inauguration so as to "hit the ground running." Amid euphoria and exhaustion, responsibility looms. Expectations are high. The one-time candidate must assume a "presidential aura."
Charles Jones, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, has an interesting way of describing the process. He notes that the campaign is centered around one person, the candidate. After the campaign, the challenge is "attaching that person to the government." The transition requires skilled management. A certain amount of tension in this period is inevitable. People who have worked hard on the campaign now see others being brought in to manage the transition. There is much jockeying for position, various constituencies make their cases, and resumes proliferate.
The transition is not only the beginning of a new administration, but the end of an old one. Handing over the reins of power requires considerable preparation on the side of the outgoing administration. The new team must be briefed; records must be boxed and filed. During its waning days, the outgoing administration will also endeavor to get as much done as possible, attempting to produce some last accomplishments to add to its legacy and making a final round of appointments, executive orders, regulations, and pardons.
With assistance from the General Services Administration, the transition sets up in an office in downtown DC. In the transition office the focus is on the nitty gritty of building a new administration. Careful attention is given to selecting sub-cabinet personnel, learning about the pending issues in various agencies, and figuring out what policy initiatives to advance. Myriad sub-Cabinet posts must be filled, including deputy secretaries and agency heads. (2) The White House staff also takes shape. There is no shortage of aspirants for positions in the administration; the transition office will receive tens of thousands of resumes. Every manner of interest group and a large number of interested individuals weigh in on policies and priorities for the new administration.
Meanwhile, there is
much speculation in the
media about possible Cabinet picks, and it is the president-elect's
Cabinet selections that make headlines. Typically Secretary of
State or Secretary of Treasury
nominees are the first named. Care must be taken to avoid early
flaps which can
undercut the fledgling administration's effectiveness and
support. Although vetting is intense,
there are often a few miscues, meaning there may be a nominee or two
who ends up withdrawing
from consideration. In due time Senate confirmation
hearings of Cabinet nominees begin in relevant committees. Each
nominee
will have a team to guide him or her through the
confirmation process; there are policy, legal, press and congressional
affairs aspects to consider. Traditionally the Senate will not
block a nominee unless he or she has ethical problems or is not
qualified.
Much attention is given to the first 100 days. One hundred is a nice round mumber, but arbitrary. The original first 100 days refers to the start of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt's tenure in 1933 during the Great Depression (+), and the 100 days continues to be used as a convenient marker to measure a president's early progress. Just as one cannot judge how a runner will perform in a marathon from the first two miles, one should not draw too many conclusions about a term of 1,461 days from the first 100 days. Six months provides a better marker. Nonetheless the early actions of a new administration are fraught with symbolism and can give a sense of how it will operate.
The beginning of any
administration is a time of many firsts. There is the President's
first official act, his or her
first full day in office, his first formal interview as
President,
his first trip to Capitol Hill, his first trip to the Pentagon as
commander-in-chief, his first piece of legislation signed, his first
news conference
as President, his first trip overseas as President, his first meeting
with a
foreign leader at the White House, his first
Cabinet meeting, his first State Dinner and so forth. [2008
| 2000]
Typically
the leadership of both national party committees changes after a
presidential election.
The president or president-elect will select the chairman of his or her
party. For the losing side, a number of hopefuls compete to
rebuild
the party, and there is much discussion about how to move beyond the
recent defeat (1,
2).
The
2012
post-election
scenario
was
a
bit
different.
President
Obama
asked
Rep.
Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz
to
stay
on
at
the
DNC,
and
Reince
Priebus
was
re-elected
to
continue
at
the
helm
of the
RNC. Priebus formed a Growth & Opportunity Project which
presented its recommendations on March 18.
Notes.
1. On Oct. 16, 2010, President Obama signed
into law
S.3196, the Pre-Election
Presidential
Transition Act of 2010, providing for the General Service
Administration to provide for transition planning resources starting
after the nominating conventions. Sen. Ted Kaufman (D-DE) and
several other Senators introduced the bill in April 2010 (+),
based on recommendations in a report from the Partnership for Public
Service.
The book Romney
Readiness
Project:
Retrospective & Lessons Learned (R2P,
Inc., May 2013) offers the definitive account of the Romney transition
effort.
A good early article on Leavitt's role: Jonathan
Martin
and
Alexander Burns. "Mike Leavitt, the man planning the Romney
presidency." Politico, June 3, 2012.
See also the excellent article: Katy Steinmetz. "The Cost of Romney's Government-Assisted Transition: $8.9 Million." Time, Dec. 19, 2012.
2. On Aug. 10, 2012, President Obama signed into law S.679, the
Presidential Appointment Efficiency and Streamlining Act of 2011, which
reduces the number of executive positions subject to Senate
confirmation.
U.S.
General
Services Administration: Presidential Transition
Office of Personnel Management:
Transition to
a
New Presidential Administration
Christopher Liddell, Daniel Kroese and Clark Campbell. May 1,
2013. ROMNEY READINESS
PROJECT 2012: Retrospective & Lessons Learned. R2P,
Inc..
--. Jan. 13, 2010. READY
TO
GOVERN:
Improving
the
Presidential
Transition.
Washington, DC: Partnership
for
Public
Service.
Anne Joseph O’Connell. Jan. 15,
2009. LET'S GET IT
STARTED: What President-Elect Obama Can Learn from Previous
Administrations in Making Political Appointments.
Washington, DC: Center
for
American
Progress.
Stephen
Hess. Nov. 2008. WHAT
DO
WE
DO
NOW?:
A
Workbook
for
the
President-elect. Washington, DC: Brookings
Institution
Press.
L. Elaine Halchin. Nov. 25, 2008 update. "PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITIONS: Issues Involving Outgoing and Incoming Administrations." Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.
U.S. Senate Committee on Governmental
Affairs. Nov. 12, 2008. Policy and
Supporting Positions.
Washington, DC: U.S.
Government Printing Office. [The Plum Book]
U.S. Senate. Sept. 10, 2008. "Managing the Challenges of the Federal Government Transition." Hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, Subcommittee on Oversight of Government Management, the Federal Workforce, and the District of Columbia.
U.S. General Accountability Office. June 2002. THE WHITE HOUSE: Allegations of Damage During the 2001 Presidential Transition (GAO-02-360).
Martha Joynt Kumar and Terry
Sullivan , eds. Feb. 2003. THE WHITE HOUSE WORLD:
Transitions, Organization, and Office Operations (Joseph V.
Hughes, Jr., and Holly O. Hughes Series in the Presidency and
Leadership Studies, No. 13). Texas A&M University Press.
Richard E. Neustadt. Oct.
2000. PREPARING TO BE
PRESIDENT: The Memos of Richard E. Neustadt. AEI Press.
John P.
Burke. Sept.
2000. PRESIDENTIAL
TRANSITIONS: From Politics to Practice. Lynne Rienner
Publishers.
Carl M. Brauer. Dec.
1988. PRESIDENTIAL
TRANSITIONS: Eisenhower through Reagan. Oxford University
Press.