For Immediate Release
October 26, 2012
Contact
Laura Pereyra, Center for American Progress Action Fund
ADVISORY:
Accurately Counting the Latino Vote Matters- CAP Action and
Latino Decisions React to National and State Polls’ Lack of
Representative Samples of Latinos’ Voices
Washington, D.C — On
Monday, October 29, 2012, the
Center for American Progress Action Fund and Latino Decisions will host
a press call to discuss the causes and consequences of many
pre-election national and state polls’ misrepresentation of the Latino
Vote. For
years, polls
have failed to accurately account for Latino voters in their samples
across the country for three reasons: 1) their sample sizes of Latinos
are often far too small; 2) their Latino samples are often not
representative of the Latino population; and 3) Latinos are often not
being interviewed in Spanish at the correct proportions.
This miscalculation and misrepresentation of Latino voters continues
today as Latino Decisions pointed out in a recent
blog. Take the recent
Monmouth University poll,
in which only 48 percent of Latino voters supported Romney versus 42
percent who supported President Obama. This is not consistent
with
eight recent national polls of Latinos, where an average of 70
percent
of Latinos supported President Obama while just 22 percent supported
Gov. Romney.
Nor does it make much sense when some state polls have
Romney leading among Hispanics in Florida or
Obama leading by just eight points among Nevada Latinos.
These
findings
are
reminiscent of the 2010 election when Nevada polls
drastically underestimated Harry Reid’s lead among Hispanics voters and
consequently had the election outcome completely wrong.
In addition to errors in the pre-election polls, exit poll samples of
Latinos have been notoriously wrong. In 2004, national exit poll
partner Warren Mitofsky noted after the fact that their Latino data was
not representative, and included too few Spanish speaking
Latinos. In
2010 the exit polls reported that anti-immigrant candidate Sharon Angle
won 30 percent of the Latino vote, but post-election analysis revealed
she likely won 10 percent or less. Barreto and Teixeira will discuss
the problems and pitfalls of poor polling and poor exit poll data.
Given how crucial the Latino vote will be in this election, pollsters
need to do a better job of analyzing the Latino vote and ensure that
they represent the voters’ true intentions. Please join CAP
Action
polling expert Ruy Teixeira and Latino Decision’s Matt Barreto to
discuss how the problems and pitfalls of poor polling and poor exit
poll data blur the true measure of the Latino voter.
What: Press call to discuss how national and state polling has
distorted the voices of Latino Voters.
When: Monday, October 29, 2012 at 1:00 p.m. EST
Who:
- Ruy Teixeira, Senior Fellow, Center for American
Progress Action Fund and the Century Foundation
- Dr. Matt A. Barreto, Founding Principal of Latino
Decisions and Professor at the University of Washington, Seattle
Call info:
[omitted]
###
The
Center for American Progress Action Fund is the
sister advocacy organization of the
Center for American Progress.
The Action Fund transforms progressive ideas into policy through rapid
response communications, legislative action, grassroots organizing and
advocacy, and partnerships with other progressive leaders throughout
the country and the world. The Action Fund is also the home of the
Progress Report.