Early Voting:
The View from the Obama Campaign and the Democrats
see also: The
View
from the Romney Campaign and the Republicans
MEMO from Democratic National Committee
MEMORANDUM
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Patrick Gaspard, Executive Director, Democratic National
Committee
DATE: October 25, 2012
RE: GOP Ground Game Bluff
Now that early voting has begun in many
battleground states, Republicans are in full spin mode trying to
overplay their hand and shape a narrative that puts them ahead of
Democrats in the ground game contest.
To that end, the RNC released a misleading memo Tuesday on where the
Presidential contest stands when it comes to early voting.
Like Mitt Romney’s tax plan – the early vote numbers from the GOP just
don’t add up.
For example, when the GOP talks about early voting
they are referring only to early vote in person and do not account for
the fact that Democrats currently enjoy solid leads when early vote by
mail is also included. In Iowa data shows
Democrats leading 45% to 30% in vote by mail requests, ahead by 18
points in returned mail ballots and outperforming Republicans by 15
points in total ballots cast. Polling from NBC/WSJ and PPP show
Democrats ahead 35 points and 29 points respectively among
Iowans who have already cast a ballot either in person or by mail.
When the truth just isn’t in their favor,
Republicans are choosing to make up numbers that fit the false
narrative showing Mitt Romney ahead. Republicans contend that
Democrats have seen a 65% drop this year in our
margin among Iowa early voters when compared to a similar period in
2008, resulting in a net swing for Republicans of 1.65%.
Left unexplained by the GOP is how a 65% collapse in
Democratic margin would result in only a meager 1.65 percentage point
gain for Republicans.
But the GOP math isn’t just fuzzy in Iowa. Public
polling from several battleground contests all refute GOP assertions
that they are outperforming Democrats in early voting. Every
single
poll gauging support among those that have voted
early and requested ballots in battleground states show President Obama
and Democrats ahead as is evidenced by the charts below:
Polling
Among
People Who Say They Have Already Voted
(WI: Also Includes Those Who Say They
Will Vote Early)
State |
Pollster |
Dates |
Obama/Romney |
Margin |
FL |
Mellman |
Oct 18-21 |
50/45 |
+5 |
IA |
PPP |
Oct 18-19 |
64/35 |
+29 |
IA |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Oct 15-17 |
67/32 |
+35 |
NV |
PPP |
Oct 22-24 |
61/39 |
+22 |
NV |
ARG |
Oct 19-22 |
57/43 |
+14 |
OH |
Time |
Oct 22-23 |
60/30 |
+30 |
OH |
PPP |
Oct 18-20 |
66/34 |
+32 |
OH |
CBS/Quinnipiac |
Oct 17-20 |
54/39 |
+15 |
OH |
SurveyUSA |
Oct 20-22 |
58/39 |
+18 |
OH |
Rasmussen |
Oct 23 |
53/43 |
+10 |
WI |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Oct 15-17 |
64/35 |
+29 |
Total Ballots Cast
(Mail and In-Person)
State |
D |
R |
Difference |
CO |
120,429 |
126,026 |
R +5,597 |
FL |
362,384 |
413,644 |
R +51,260 |
IA |
169,162 |
113,576 |
D +55,586 |
MI* |
258,572 |
129,679 |
D +128,893 |
NC |
412,144 |
243,750 |
D +168,394 |
NV |
92,248 |
70,752 |
D +21,496 |
OH* |
408,788 |
355,388 |
D +53,400 |
VA* |
91,468 |
76,434 |
D +15,034 |
WI* |
45,734 |
19,157 |
D +26,577 |
Total |
1,960,929 |
1,548,406 |
D +412,523 |
*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register
with a party when they register to vote. ‘D’ and ‘R’ in these
states
are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008.
Absentee Ballot
Requests
State |
D |
R |
Difference |
CO |
692,288 |
701,317 |
R +9,029 |
FL |
1,008,962 |
1,046,119 |
R +37,157 |
IA |
192,821 |
129,771 |
D +63,050 |
MI* |
596,206 |
282,780 |
D +313,426 |
NC |
58,185 |
105,780 |
R +47,595 |
NV |
29,344 |
29,106 |
D +238 |
OH* |
624,078 |
615,075 |
D +9,003 |
VA* |
82,426 |
75,900 |
D +6,526 |
WI* |
84,069 |
37,386 |
D +46,683 |
Total |
3,368,379 |
3,023,234 |
D +345,145 |
*Note: Voters in MI, OH, VA and WI do not register
with a party when they register to vote. ‘D’ and ‘R’ in these
states
are defined as voters from precincts won by Obama/GOP in 2008.
CO
-
Among non-midterm voters, Democrats lead
Republicans 33% to 23% in mail ballot requests (211,069 to 145,021),
37% to 28% in mail ballots cast (18,678 to 13,857), 36% to 28% in
in-person ballots cast (2,884 to 2,294) and 37% to
28% in total ballots cast (21,562 to 16,151)
FL
-
The GOP’s traditional absentee ballot
request advantage is down 86% compared with this time four years ago
from 261,479 to just 37,157– a Democratic gain of D +224,322 ballots
-
Note that in 2008, Democrats won Florida by 3 points (D 51.0 to R 48.2)
IA
-
Democrats lead Republicans in early voting: D 169,162 (47%) vs. R
113,576 (32%)
-
Democrats’ lead is up 14% compared with this time four years ago
(increased from D +48,581 to D +55,586)
-
Democrats lead Republicans on every metric
and with every group – ballots requested, ballots cast, in-person,
mail, midterm voters and non-midterm voters
-
Note that in 2008, Democrats won Iowa by 9.5 points (D 53.9 to R 44.4)
MI
-
Precincts that voted for Obama in 2008 are out-voting Republican
precincts by a 67% to 33% margin (D 258,572 vs. R 129,679)
-
In ballot requests, Obama precincts lead GOP precincts 68% to 32% (D
596,206 to R 282,780)
NC
-
Democrats lead Republicans 51% to 30% in early voting (D 412,144 to R
243,750)
NV
-
Democrats lead Republicans on every metric:
mail ballots requested (D 29,344 to R 29,106), mail ballots returned (D
12,861 to R 12,294), in-person early voting (D 79,387 to R 58,458) and
total ballots cast (D 92,248 to R 70,752)
OH
-
There is no party registration in Ohio, but
counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a
higher rate than GOP counties and precincts
-
In counties that Obama won in 2008, 10% of
registered voters have already cast ballots. In GOP counties,
only 7%
of registered voters have cast ballots
-
Voters from precincts that voted for Obama
in 2008 have cast 408,788 ballots (53%) in 2012 compared with just
355,388 ballots (47%) from GOP precincts
-
The difference (D +53,400) is 80% higher than the difference at this
time four years ago (D +29,706)
VA
-
There is no party registration in Virginia,
but counties and precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a
higher rate than GOP counties and precincts
-
In counties that Obama won in 2008, 3.4% of
registered voters have already voted. In GOP counties, only 2.8%
of
registered voters have voted so far
-
Obama precincts have cast 91,468 ballots (54%) to date compared with
just 76,434 (46%) for GOP precincts
Even for a campaign that said it wouldn’t be
dictated to by facts, the RNC is hard-pressed in making a credible case
that they are winning the ground war in this election.
From the very beginning of this campaign,
Democrats have made clear we would invest heavily in standing up the
largest grassroots effort in history to mobilize our supporters to the
polls and lay out the strong contrast between President
Obama’s vision for a stronger middle class and the top down failed
economic policies of the past Republicans and Mitt Romney want to
return the country too.
We understood that our success resided in
grassroots people power – not the special interest dominated campaign
of our opponents. With just 12 days to go until Election Day our
investment is paying off and the American people are choosing
to support President Obama’s vision for a stronger middle class built
from the middle out and not the top down.
BLOG POSTING from Obama
for America
October 24, 2012
Inside
the
early
vote numbers
By Jeremy Bird, National Field Director
Our campaign is about inclusiveness, and we’ve always been focused on
bringing new people into the process. As our supporters vote early in
huge numbers around the country, we have the perfect example: we’re
turning out voters who have been traditionally less likely to
participate, sometimes called “sporadic” voters.
A common misconception about early vote is that both parties have a set
number of voters, and all early vote does is let some of them cast
their ballots before Election Day. That’s simply not true. What early
vote does is help us mobilize sporadic voters by giving them more time
and more convenient ways to make their voices heard. It also broadens
the universe of voters and frees up more of our get-out-the-vote
resources later, especially on Election Day. When you look inside the
numbers so far, among sporadic voters it’s not even close.
More sporadic Obama voters are voting than sporadic Republicans in the
battleground states. Along with the more than 20,000 people who came
out to see the President yesterday in Ohio and Florida after he
dominated the final debate, these trends are a sign both of enthusiasm
for President Obama and our organizational strength.
Here are some numbers illustrating the progress we’re making:
Non-Midterm Voters: Across
nine battleground states, Democrats have a 19.7 point advantage in
ballots cast among non-midterm voters. More than half (51.5 percent) of
non-midterm voters who have voted already are Democrats, while fewer
than a third (just 31.8 percent) are Republicans.
For example, in North Carolina, 51.5 percent of those who have already
voted are Democrats, compared with just 25.1 percent who are
Republicans. That’s a major advantage. And among these non-midterm
voters who have voted in North Carolina so far, 87 percent of them are
youth (under 35), African-American, Latino or new registrants
(registered after the 2008 election).
All Voters: Among all voters,
Democrats have a 10.7 point advantage over Republicans. Just under half
(49.6 percent) of voters who have cast ballots are Democrats, while
just 38.9 percent are Republicans. In the only two states--Colorado and
Florida--where Republicans lead right now in total ballots cast,
Democrats are cutting into traditional Republican leads there; we’re
doing better today than at this point in 2008. And once in-person early
voting is included (it just started in Colorado on Monday and starts in
Florida this weekend), Democrats will take the lead.
·
The plan we’ve been building from the beginning is modeled exactly for
this – to broaden the electorate, and make sure as many Americans as
possible have a chance to take part in this historic election. That’s
why we’ve spent years building neighborhood teams that are stronger
than last-minute, turnkey phone-bank operations. Our volunteer leaders
will be getting the people in their precincts to the polls
because they’ve registered them, called them, went to their doors –
because they know them.
Overall, we’re winning early vote in the battleground states that will
decide this election – a key part of our plan to get to 270 electoral
votes. We’re outperforming our early vote margins in key states
compared to 2008, and we’re ahead of where we were against John McCain
– and most importantly, ahead of Mitt Romney.
You can’t fake a real ground game, and you can’t underestimate early
vote. When more people get to vote, it’s a good thing.
###
MEMO from Obama for
America Iowa
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Tuesday,
October 23, 2012
CONTACT:
Obama for America Iowa Press
DES MOINES – Today Obama for America Iowa released a memo from
State Director Brad Anderson highlighting our recent early voting
accomplishments in Iowa.
Memo
from
Brad
Anderson,
Iowa
State
Director re: Early Voting in Iowa
The day after a strong final debate performance, Democrats are building
upon the historic grassroots organization we built in Iowa in 2008,
including our 67 Obama for America offices and hundreds of
well-trained, experienced volunteer-led neighborhood teams in every
corner of the state. As a result of that strong foundation and
enthusiasm for President Obama, today we are ahead of where we were at
this time against John McCain – and ahead of Mitt Romney.
Unprecedented early voting numbers show enthusiasm for the President
and the strength of OFA’s organization, while Republicans were caught
completely unprepared for early voting.
Iowa Democrats Maintain a Significant Lead in Early Voting
·
Topline: Democrats have a huge lead in
early voting, and that lead is growing every day. Ten days ago,
for example, Democrats led by D +52,681 in total ballots cast, and
today that advantage has increased to D +54,968.
·
Winning Across the Board: Democrats lead
on every early vote metric - Vote by Mail requests, mail ballots
returned, in-person ballots cast and total ballots cast
|
D |
R |
Margin
|
Vote by Mail Requests
|
188,359 |
125,148 |
D +63,211 |
Mail Ballots Returned
|
123,134 |
75,452 |
D +47,682 |
In-Person Ballots Cast
|
36,668 |
29,382 |
D +7,286 |
Total Ballots Cast
|
159,802 |
104,834 |
D +54,968 |
|
D |
R |
Margin
|
Vote by Mail Requests
|
45.6% |
30.3% |
D +15.3 |
Mail Ballots Returned
|
49.6% |
30.4% |
D +19.2 |
In-Person Ballots Cast
|
41.9% |
33.6% |
D +8.3 |
Total Ballots Cast
|
47.6% |
31.2% |
D +16.4 |
·
Winning by More than 2008: In 2008, Barack
Obama won Iowa by 9.5 percentage points. At this time in 2008, we
led by D +57,004 in mail ballot requests, D +29,513 in mail ballots
returned and 44,686 in total ballots cast. Our early vote
advantage this year is bigger than it was at the same time in 2008.
·
Snapshot: In-Person Early Vote
o
Democrats are leading Republicans 36,668 to 29,382
in in-person early vote.
o
Students are voting early in record numbers,
including 477 students voting at Cornell following the President’s
speech on October 17
th – 1/3 of the student body.
·
Registration: One of the untold
stories of the ground game in Iowa is OFA’s historic voter registration
effort this year. Democrats lead Republicans in registered voters
by D +17,486 (D 689,794 vs. R 672,308). In the last three months
alone, 16,257 registered Democrats were added to the rolls compared
with just 2,428 Republicans. As a result, the Democratic
registration advantage increased from D +3,657 in August to D +17,486
today. The Democratic advantage continues to grow every single
day as new voters register, and will continue growing right up through
Election Day. Since August, Democrats have added 22,406 active voters
to the rolls and Republicans have added just 5,924.
Why OFA’s Ground Game Matters
·
OFA Iowa
has 67 offices across the state,
with hundreds of trained team leaders, leading thousands of
volunteers. OFA has volunteers in all 99 counties.
·
Democrats are winning the battle
for early non-midterm voters. Democrats lead Republicans among
non-midterm voters in mail ballots requested, total ballots cast, mail
ballots cast and in-person ballots cast.
Among Non-Midterm Voters Only
|
D |
R |
Margin
|
Vote by Mail Requests
|
59,336 |
27,778 |
D +31,558 |
Mail Ballots Returned
|
27,115 |
12,798 |
D +14,317 |
In-Person Ballots Cast
|
8,823 |
4,092 |
D +4,731 |
Total Ballots Cast
|
35,938 |
16,890 |
D +19,048 |
|
D |
R |
Margin
|
Vote by Mail Requests
|
43.4% |
20.3% |
D +23.1 |
Mail Ballots Returned
|
46.1% |
21.8% |
D +24.4 |
In-Person Ballots Cast
|
40.3% |
18.7% |
D +21.6 |
Total Ballots Cast
|
44.5% |
20.9% |
D +23.6 |
The Romney Campaign is Struggling in Iowa
·
“I see the early vote numbers, and I grimace a
little bit. … It feels like an Obama state.” – former Iowa
Republican Party political director Craig Robinson. [
National Journal,
9/21/12]
·
Recent GOP early vote numbers do not show
momentum, they simply show that the Romney campaign did a mass,
“1-million person” mailing, according to GOP Romney operative Matt
Strawn.
·
Early Republicans tried to push early voting as
Rep. Paul Ryan reminded Iowans during an event in September. Iowa
Republican operative Matt Strawn told a reporter in September, “Anybody
that tells one of our volunteers that they’re supporting Mitt Romney,
you bet we want that vote cast as soon as possible.” Yet as
numbers started to show a large gap between Democrats and Republicans
the change their message as Megan Stiles- Communications Director for
the Republican Party of Iowa said on October 1
st,
“Republicans tend to actually prefer to go to the polls and pull the
lever so to speak on Election Day.”