MEMO from Obama for America
January 30, 2012
To:
Interested Parties
From:
Sergio Bendixen, Obama for America Pollster
Gabriela Domenzain, Director of Hispanic Press
Re:
Republicans Seal Their Fate with Hispanic Voters in 2012
According
to recent polls, the two leading contenders for the 2012 Republican
presidential nomination, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, may very well
have already
sealed the political fate of their party with the Hispanic electorate –
the fastest growing voting bloc in the country. Their extreme
rhetoric
on immigration during the televised debates has rejected our history as
a nation of immigrants and alienated millions
of Hispanic voters nationally. Many Hispanics see Romney’s strong
opposition to the DREAM Act and to any type of comprehensive
immigration reform as more of a demagogic appeal to Tea Party voters
than an attempt to formulate a responsible policy.
Newt
Gingrich´s characterization of Spanish as “the language of living
in a
ghetto” is offensive at face value to Hispanics and neutralizes any
credit he may
have received for supporting legal status for “undocumented abuelitas.”
Jeb
Bush, the former governor of Florida, warned his party in a recent
Washington Post op-ed that Hispanic voters have “drifted away” from the
Republican Party in large part because
of the insensitive rhetoric of its presidential candidates. But
Hispanics’ opposition to the Republican candidates is much broader than
their rejection of their immigration rhetoric and positions. On
the
issues most important to Hispanic voters, Republicans
are on the wrong side.
THE LATEST
POLLS DEMONSTRATE REPUBLICANS WEAK STANDING WITH HISPANICS
The latest
national Univision/Latino Decisions
poll
of Hispanic voters clearly indicates the weak position
Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are in with Hispanic voters, and how much
of an advantage Barack Obama will have over them in the general
election. According to the survey, the President has a 72 percent
favorability rating among all Hispanic voters and a 25%
unfavorability rating. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are both deep
underwater, at 28/41 and 24/44, respectively.
When
it comes to the November election, President Obama may receive the
highest percentage of the Hispanic vote ever – higher than the 73
percent that Bill
Clinton got in his 1996 reelection. The Univision/Latino Decisions poll
has him defeating Newt Gingrich 70% to 22% and Mitt Romney 67% to 25%
— by
larger margins than the 67% to 31% the President received in 2008 over
McCain, who ultimately lost the election. Even a strong primary
performance by Romney in Florida, a state with the highest proportion
of conservative Hispanic voters, should not be taken as a sign of
growing Republican strength in the state. Romney currently leads
Gingrich 35-20 in Florida among Hispanic voters, according
to the Univision/Latino Decisions Poll. But in the 2008 primary, McCain
won the Florida Cuban vote 54-9 over Romney, and 53-21 over Romney with
non-Cuban Hispanic voters. Although Romney seems likely to achieve a
much more impressive primary victory this time
around, McCain still ultimately lost to Obama 57-42 among Hispanic
voters in Florida.
And a
Republican-leaning group poll [Resurgent Republic,
1/26/12]
last week showed the President easily beating a generic Republican in
Florida and seen favorably by the majority of Hispanic voters in the
state. If those numbers hold among Hispanic voters,
President Obama
would have a much greater chance of carrying Florida,
Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Virginia, and
Pennsylvania.
ON THE ISSUES
HISPANICS PREFER THE PRESIDENT OVER THE REPUBLICANS
It
is also clear from polling that the positions the Republican candidates
have taken on the issues most important to the Hispanic community are
directly at
odds with Hispanic voters. The speeches and policy statements of both
Romney and Gingrich on issues like the economy, the creation of jobs,
health care, public education, housing, programs for seniors, and
immigration are deeply unpopular with most Hispanics.
Hispanic
voters identified the economy as by far the most important issue in
determining their vote in 2012, and 61% of Hispanic voters
trust the
President
to improve the economy more, while just 24% trust Republicans more
[Univision/Latino Decisions,
1/25/12].
The GOP presidential contenders have made it clear
from Iowa to Florida that they support the failed economic policies of
previous Republican administrations – the middle class bearing the
brunt of lower taxes for millionaires. Hispanic voters strongly oppose
that point-of-view--just 31% prefer lowering taxes.
Although there is no doubt that Hispanics, like everyone else, have
been hit hard by the economic downturn our country has experienced only
18% blame President Obama for current economic conditions, compared to
66% who blame former President Bush.
Hispanics
strongly support the Affordable Care Act that will give every American
access to quality health care at an affordable cost and insure 9
million Hispanics
that currently have no health insurance; Romney and Gingrich have
promised to repeal the new health care law – a position held by just
28% of Hispanic voters according to the Univision/Latino Decisions poll.
Hispanics
strongly support our public schools and Pell Grants for the millions of
Hispanic students that cannot afford to pay for a university education;
Governor
Romney opposes smaller class sizes and his budget plans would require
cutting Pell Grants, as well as all other spending outside of defense
and Social Security, by 24 percent. The Hispanic community knows nearly
one in two Hispanic seniors count on Social
Security as their sole source of income; Romney supports a budget plan
that would enact deep cuts to Social Security benefits and Gingrich
supports dangerous privatization schemes that would endanger the future
financial stability of Social Security. Hispanics
were strongly impacted by the housing foreclosure crisis; the
Republican candidate – especially Romney – who has said: “Don’t try to
stop the foreclosure process. Let it run its course and hit the bottom”
– appear to support abandoning those that are losing
their homes through no fault of their own.
And
on the issue of immigration, an issue that Governor Romney has led the
charge in demagoguing, the damage that both Gingrich and Romney have
caused by pandering
to the extreme right of their party, may be
irreversible. Both
Gingrich and Romney oppose an earned path to citizenship, which 71% of
Hispanics favor. On the DREAM Act, which Romney has promised to
veto
and called a “handout,” the latest Univision poll not
only indicates that 85% of Hispanics support it, but also that the
majority of Hispanics are less likely to support a candidate who does
not.
Given
the President’s current strong standing in the polls nationally with
Hispanic voters, and the extreme positions and rhetoric of Mitt Romney
and Newt Gingrich, this upcoming election
could seal Republican’s fate with Hispanics not only in 2012, but for
generations to come.
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