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January 31, 2011
Jim Messina, BarackObama.com
Subject: 92% negative
Friend --
If you look at nothing else in the press coming out of Florida, check
out these numbers:
--
$15.3 million: How much
money Mitt Romney and his backers spent in the state (compared to $3.4
million spent by Newt Gingrich and his groups)
--
13,000: The number of
advertisements put on the air on Mitt's behalf as of mid-week last
week. Newt had about 200
--
92: The percentage of
these ads that were negative
That's ugly, and it tells us a lot about what to expect from Romney if
he wins the Republican nomination. They're going to try to spend and
smear their way to the White House.
These super PACs can dominate the airwaves, but what they can't do is
mobilize volunteers on the ground.
And that's how we're going to win. Please donate $3 or more today to invest in this
grassroots campaign.
If you do, I can tell you that your donation goes directly towards
building the most efficient and effective grassroots operation possible.
Right now, that might mean hiring a new field organizer, paying the
rent for a field office, or putting together an online training for new
volunteers.
The Florida primary will be a turning point in this race -- the other
side is looking at what could be months of brutal, negative tactics
that turn people off to politics altogether.
We're spending that time building a campaign to win in November. You
can help by donating $3 or more today:
https://donate.barackobama.com/After-Florida
Thanks,
Messina
Jim Messina
Campaign Manager
Obama for America
P.S. -- Here are two more numbers:
--
0: The number of field offices the Republican
candidates will have open in Florida after this week
--
11: The number of field offices we have open now,
with more coming soon
That is the kind of organization you're helping build
when you support this campaign with a donation.
MEMO
To:
Interested
Parties
From:
Stephanie Cutter, Deputy Campaign Manager
Re:
Mitt
Romney’s Negative Campaign is Backfiring
Mitt
Romney’s
win
in Florida came at a very steep price. First, he and his
allies had to spend more than $15 million – five times what Newt
Gingrich’s team spent – on
an air assault to take out what is widely regarded as weak
competition. Second, and more ominously for Romney, his
unprecedentedly negative, far-right Florida campaign continued to
damage him among the swing voters he would need in November.
As
a
new
Pew Research Center poll and other recent surveys have
discovered, Republicans are increasingly dissatisfied with their choice
of candidates.
Nearly three in five Republican primary voters want another
candidate to enter the race – a nearly fivefold increase since October.
In
fact,
Republicans’
disappointment in their frontrunner contributes to
the highest level of dissatisfaction in their field that Pew has ever
polled -- more than half
of Republican or Republican-leaning voters calling the field only fair
or poor.
Mitt
Romney
tried
to spin his win by predicting that “doing well in Florida
is a pretty good indication of your prospects nationally.”
Unfortunately, the same level of
dissatisfaction was also reflected in Florida’s exit polls last night.
Romney
Ran
an Unprecedented Negative Campaign to Beat the Weakest Field in
Memory
Team
Romney
wants
voters and the national media to believe its victory
reflects its candidate’s positions. In reality, it is a product
of the
fact that Romney and his
SuperPAC allies carpet-bombed Gingrich by spending five times as much
money on Florida’s airwaves, and running more than 60 television ads
for every one Gingrich and his allies aired. Nearly all of the
$15.3
million Romney’s campaign and its allies’ spent
on advertising in Florida was focused not on their own candidate, but
on the rest of a weak field of opponents, contributing to a campaign in
which more than nine out of every 10 ads were negative – by far the
most negative campaign in Florida’s history.
It’s
difficult
for Romney to claim Floridians voted
for him rather than against his opponents, since less than
one-tenth of one percent of the ads in Florida promoted Romney
positively. In fact, a single Spanish radio spot was the only
positive
Romney ad in the entire state during the last week of the
primary, and more Floridians reported in exit polls that Romney ran the
most unfair campaign.
The
More Voters Get to Know Romney, the More They Dislike Him
The
more
voters
get to know Mitt Romney and understand his record not as a
job creator, as he claims, but as a corporate buyout specialist who as
governor drove his state
to 47th in job creation, the more they dislike him. As
the New York Times
reported Tuesday, “the number of people who view him favorably has
plunged, especially among independent voters who will likely decide the
general election later this
year.”
Independents’
disappointment:
A
Washington Post/ABC poll came to the same conclusion, finding
that Romney’s favorable rating among independents sank while his
unfavorable rating rose by nearly the same amount. In fact, they’ve now
crossed, putting Romney underwater. His unfavorable
rating spiked 17 points, to 51 percent from 34 percent, as his
favorable rating fell to 23 percent from 41 percent, a drop of 18
points.
Republicans’
dissatisfaction:
Romney can take little comfort in his own party’s
support. The same Post/ABC
poll found his unfavorable rating more than doubling among Republicans,
jumping to 32 percent in late January from 14 percent less than a month
earlier. At the same time, his favorability dropped by 3
points.
Republicans’
disappointment
in
their frontrunner contributes to the highest level of
dissatisfaction in their field that Pew has ever polled -- more than
half of Republican
or Republican-leaning voters calling the field only fair or poor.
Even
more
disconcerting for Romney is that the trend is moving in the
wrong direction: the number who call the
field excellent or good has dropped five points, to less than 50
percent, between the beginning and end of January, and the number
calling it fair or poor rose eight points to top 50 percent over that
same period.
Voters’
Disapproval
of Romney Isn’t Normal, Even in a Contested Primary
Romney’s
free-fall
over
the past three months is not typical of a candidate in a
heated primary battle. Both President Obama and Hillary Clinton
had
significantly higher
favorable than unfavorable ratings at this point in the 2008 race, when
nearly 80 percent of Democrats rated their field as excellent or
good.
Unlike Romney, both candidates’ numbers had improved rather than
declined since the previous November, and voters’
satisfaction with their field continued to rise. Bush and Gore
enjoyed
similarly positive ratings.
Last
election,
three
in five Republicans called their party’s field
excellent or good – the same proportion of Republicans who this year
hope another candidate will get
in the race.
Pew
Survey of Voters Saying Their Field is Excellent or Good
Long
Primary Battle Ahead
The
2012
Republican
Presidential primary has been unpredictable, and the
format and timing of the process favors a prolonged fight for the
Republican nomination. In
fact, the race has barely begun – only 5% of delegates have been
decided.
Gingrich’s
strength
in
national polls (and particularly in some of the upcoming
states in February and March) give him an opportunity to earn delegates
in the races ahead.
A possible Santorum drop-out may also provide an important boost.
Largely
by
design,
the GOP primary calendar favors a longer nominating
contest. Even after the February contests, only 15% of
delegates will
be awarded. No candidate
has a chance to mathematically secure the nomination until at least
April.
Conclusion:
On
to Nevada
Romney’s
unique
ability
to push key constituencies away rather than attract
their support will continue to weaken his appeal to general-election
voters, no matter how
many primary delegates he secures. He continues to lose the
middle
class vote in primary contests – and less than 9% percent of his
donations in the 4th quarter of 2011 came from small-dollar
donors who gave $200 or less. By contrast, 98 percent
of President Obama’s donations in the same quarter were below $250.
As
the
Republican
race now moves to Nevada, Romney’s out-of-touch
positions on housing, seniors’ health and immigration – as well as his
lonely support of the Yucca Mountain
project Nevadans overwhelmingly oppose and President Obama ended – will
continue to repel the very voters who will decide the White House.
###