- Iowa Caucuses « Iowa Caucus Results
Jan. 3, 2012 Iowa Caucus Results
"Romney Wins By 8 Votes" - Des Moines Register*
"3 Bunched At Top In Crowded Race for G.O.P In Iowa" - New York Times (Washington Edtion)
"Romney, Santorum in virtual tie in Iowa" - Washington Post
"Two Locked in Iowa Dead Heat" - Wall Street Journal
Speeches and Statements: Romney | Santorum | Paul | DNC/IDP | Interest Groups || Bachmann (Jan. 4) || *Two Weeks Later
| BACHMANN |
GINGRICH |
HUNTSMAN |
PAUL |
PERRY
|
ROMNEY |
SANTORUM |
OTHERS |
TOTAL |
|
| Total |
6,046 4.98% |
16,163 13.30% |
739 |
26,036 21.43% |
12,557 10.33% |
29,805 24.53% |
29,839 24.56% |
273 |
121,503 |
Results as provided by the
Republican Party of Iowa
(Excel
Spreadsheet)
Results by: County | Bachmann | Gingrich | Paul | Perry | Romney | Santorum | Rep. Registration (Active) | Turnout
Analysis
The campaign in Iowa went through a number of ups and downs. Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll in August, but lost the bounce to Perry's entry. Perry was undercut by his debate performances. Cain achieved a bounce off his Presidency 5 showing. Cain's fall boosted Gingrich, who was then undercut by attacks. Santorum, who had campaigned in the state over 100 days visiting all 99 counties but made little headway in the polls, surged at the right time. Romney by contrast, had largely ignored the state, only ramping up his campaign here in November. It was a very different Romney campaign from 2008; as he noted in his Caucus Night remarks, "When I ran four years ago, we had 52 members of our full-time staff. This campaign, we've had five."
Active registration as of Jan. 3, 2012 totalled 1,980,687 comprising 614,913 Republicans, 644,223 Democrats, 719,405 no party, and a scattering of others. Despite Republicans' desire to make Obama a one-term president and reasonable weather, turnout fell short of the record level of 2008. In the 2008 Republican caucuses, 119,202 people participated, amounting to 20.6% of the 576,231 registered Republicans at that time. In 2012 somewhat more than 121,503 people participated (results of eight precincts missing), amounting to 19.8% of the 614,913 registered Republicans.
The outcome was the closest result in Iowa caucus history, giving a big boost to Romney and Santorum, with Paul finishing third. To be precise one should perhaps say "the outcomes." Following the tally on caucus night, Romney was reported as eking out an eight-vote win, but when the party released the ceritified results a couple of weeks later, Santorum finished ahead by 34 votes, with the caveat that results from eight precincts were missing.
Santorum showed broad geographic appeal, winning the most support in 65 counties (plus one tie). Romney did best in the more urban counties; he won eight of the 12 counties with highest numbers of active registered Republicans. All told Romney won in 15 counties. Ron Paul won in 16 counties (plus one tie). Rick Perry won in two counties.
Notes
- The precinct caucus meetings were only the first step in the process. County conventions occurred on March 10 (+), district conventions on April 21 (+), and the state convention in June, resulting in the final delegation (+).
Results by: County | Bachmann | Gingrich | Paul | Perry | Romney | Santorum | Rep. Registration (Active) | Turnout
Analysis
The campaign in Iowa went through a number of ups and downs. Bachmann won the Ames Straw Poll in August, but lost the bounce to Perry's entry. Perry was undercut by his debate performances. Cain achieved a bounce off his Presidency 5 showing. Cain's fall boosted Gingrich, who was then undercut by attacks. Santorum, who had campaigned in the state over 100 days visiting all 99 counties but made little headway in the polls, surged at the right time. Romney by contrast, had largely ignored the state, only ramping up his campaign here in November. It was a very different Romney campaign from 2008; as he noted in his Caucus Night remarks, "When I ran four years ago, we had 52 members of our full-time staff. This campaign, we've had five."
Active registration as of Jan. 3, 2012 totalled 1,980,687 comprising 614,913 Republicans, 644,223 Democrats, 719,405 no party, and a scattering of others. Despite Republicans' desire to make Obama a one-term president and reasonable weather, turnout fell short of the record level of 2008. In the 2008 Republican caucuses, 119,202 people participated, amounting to 20.6% of the 576,231 registered Republicans at that time. In 2012 somewhat more than 121,503 people participated (results of eight precincts missing), amounting to 19.8% of the 614,913 registered Republicans.
The outcome was the closest result in Iowa caucus history, giving a big boost to Romney and Santorum, with Paul finishing third. To be precise one should perhaps say "the outcomes." Following the tally on caucus night, Romney was reported as eking out an eight-vote win, but when the party released the ceritified results a couple of weeks later, Santorum finished ahead by 34 votes, with the caveat that results from eight precincts were missing.
Santorum showed broad geographic appeal, winning the most support in 65 counties (plus one tie). Romney did best in the more urban counties; he won eight of the 12 counties with highest numbers of active registered Republicans. All told Romney won in 15 counties. Ron Paul won in 16 counties (plus one tie). Rick Perry won in two counties.
Notes
- The precinct caucus meetings were only the first step in the process. County conventions occurred on March 10 (+), district conventions on April 21 (+), and the state convention in June, resulting in the final delegation (+).
- The confusion over the results, with Romney initially reported as the winner and Santorum reported as the winner a couple of weeks later, albeit with numbers from eight precincts missing, was rather embarassing. On March 19, 2012 the Republican Party of Iowa announced an Iowa Caucus Review Committee (+). The Committee presented its final recommendations on June 25, 2012
Copyright © 2012 Eric M.
Appleman/Democracy in
Action. All rights reserved.