Feb. 4, 2012 Nevada Caucus Results 


"ROMNEY WINS BIG" - Las Vegas Review-Journal

Speeches and Statements: Romney   |  NVGOP  |  DNC 


Republican Precinct Caucuses: Official
1,800 of 1,800 precincts reporting

GINGRICH

PAUL
ROMNEY

SANTORUM

TOTAL
Total
6,956

(21.10%) 6,177

(18.74%) 16,486

(50.01%) 3,277

(9.94%) 32,896
Carson City (24)
562
(32.2%)
268
(15.3%)
656
(37.6%)
252
(14.4%)
1,746
Churchill (19)
144
(18.8%)
119
(15.5%)
362
(47.3%)
140
(18.3%)
765
Clark (1,075)
2,749
(16.1%)
3,273
(19.2%)
9,797
(57.5%)
1,177
(6.9%)
16,996
Douglas (41)
600
(29.7%)
270
(13.3%)
835
(41.3%)
318
(15.7%)
2,023
Elko (41)
75
(8.9%)
208
(24.6%)
480
(56.9%)
81
(9.6%)
844
Esmeralda (5)
13
(22.0%)
20
(33.9%)
19
(32.2%)
6
(10.2%)
58
Eureka (4)
30
(30.3%)
18
(18.2%)
34
(34.3%)
17
(17.2%)
99
Humboldt (15)
91
(31.9%)
38
(13.3%)
130
(45.6%)
26
(9.1%)
285
Lander (9)
45
(24.6%)
24
(13.1%)
85
(46.4%)
29
(15.8%)
183
Lincoln (5)
16
(9.7%)
6
(3.6%)
138
(83.6%)
5
(3.0%)
165
Lyon (40)
419
(30.4%)
200
(14.5%)
513
(37.2%)
243
(17.6%)
1,375
Mineral (12)
39
(37.9%)
15
(14.6%)
37
(35.9%)
12
(11.7%)
103
Nye (33)
166
(16.7%)
454
(45.6%)
291
(29.2%)
80
(8.0%)
991
Pershing (6)
38
(24.8%)
21
(13.7%)
71
(46.4%)
23
(15.0%)
153
Storey (11)
48
(25.5)
52
(27.7%)
53
(28.2%)
35
(18.6%)
188
Washoe (450)
1,876
(28.0%)
1,168
(17.4%)
2,836
(42.3%)
817
(12.2%)
6,697
White Pine (10)
45
(19.3%)
23
(9.9%)
149
(63.9%)
16
(6.9%)
233
also a total of 69 no votes reported, not included above.

Analysis

As of January 2012 there were 400,310 active registered Republicans in Nevada, and of those 32,894 participated in the second-ever Nevada Republican caucuses. Turnout was down considerably compared to 2008 when 44,324 Nevada Republicans turned out for the party's first presidential caucus.  (Turnout in 2008 was likely boosted by the competive Democratic caucus on the same day generating more interest; this time Democrats held their caucuses earlier, on January 21 [1, 2]). 

Mitt Romney was expected to win here and his campaign on the ground appeared far and away the best organized.  Statewide, Romney won with just a tad smaller percentage of the vote than he had gained in 2008, 50.0% compared to 51.1% in 2008.  Romney fared particularly well in Clark County (Las Vegas), obtaining 57.5% of the vote; in the second most populous county, Washoe County (Reno), he achieved a more pedestrian 42.3%.  Romney carried all but three counties. 
The win provided another boost to his frontrunner status.  Gingrich did credibly given a fairly thin organization.  His 32.2% showing in Carson City was a notable bright spot.  Paul had a solid organization here, and he did increase his vote total and share of the vote.  Paul's best count was Nye County, where he obtained 45.6% of the vote.  Overall, however, he finished third and failed to achieve a breakthrough in a state that would seem sympathetic to his libertarian philosophy.
 

(update May 7, 2012)
The February 4 caucuses were only a first step.  The Paul campaign pursued a strategy of focusing on delegates as the process wound through county conventions to the state conventinon, and that approach does seem to have produced results (1, 2).

2008 Republican Caucus Results:  Mitt Romney 22,649 (51.1%); Ron Paul 6,087 (13.73%); John McCain 5,651 (12.75%); Mike Huckabee 3616 (8.16%); Fred Thompson 3,521 (7.94%); Rudy Giuliani 1,910 (4.31%); Duncan Hunter 890 (2.01%).