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Primaries
« 2012 Republican Primary and
Caucus Results--Summary Page
2012 Republican Primary and Caucus Results--Summary Page
Date |
State (# Del.) |
||
Jan. 3 |
Iowa
(28) |
Precinct Caucuses a |
Santorum
29,839
(24.56%), Romney 29,805 (24.53%), Paul 26,036 (21.43%),
Gingrich 16,163 (13.30%), Perry 12,557 (10.33%), Bachmann 6,046
(4.98%), Huntsman 739, Others 273. Total: 121,503. |
[Jan. 4 - Rep.
Michelle Bachmann ends her campaign] + |
|||
Jan. 10 |
New
Hampshire (12*) |
Primary |
Romney
97,591
(39.24%), Paul 56,872 (22.89%), Huntsman 41,964 (16.89%),
Santorum 23,432 (9.43%), Gingrich 23,421 (9.43%), Perry 1,764
(0.71%), Roemer 950 (0.38%), Others 2,481 (1.00)... Total: 248,475. |
[Jan. 16 -
Former Gov. Jon Huntsman ends his campaign, backs Romney] + [Jan. 19 - Gov. Rick Perry ends his campaign, backs Gingrich] + |
|||
Jan. 21 |
South
Carolina (25*) |
Primary |
Gingrich
244,113
(40.43%), Romney 168,152 (27.85%), Santorum 102,482
(16.97%), Paul 78,362 (12.98%),
Cain
6,338
(1.05%),
Perry
2,534
(0.42%),
Huntsman
1,173
(0.19%),
Bachmann
491
(0.08%),
Johnson
211
(0.04%). Total: 603,856. |
Jan. 31 |
Florida
(50*) |
Primary |
Romney
776,159
(46.40%),
Gingrich 534,121 (31.93%), Santorum 223,249 (13.35%), Paul 117,461
(7.02%), Perry 6,775 (0.41%),
Huntsman 6,204 (0.37%), Bachmann 3,967 (0.24%), Cain 3,503 (0.21%),
Johnson 1,195 (0.07%). Total: 1,672,634. |
Feb. 4 |
Nevada
(28) |
Precinct Caucuses |
Romney
16,486
(50.01%), Gingrich 6,956 (21.10%), Paul 6,177 (18.74%),
Santorum 3,277 (9.94%), No 69. Total: 32,965. |
Feb. 7 |
Colorado
(36) |
Precinct Caucuses |
Santorum
26,614
(40.31%), Romney 23,012 (34.85%), Gingrich 8,445
(12.79%), Paul 7,759 (11.75%), Perry
52
(0.08%),
Huntsman
46
(0.07%),
Bachmann
28
(0.04%),
Others 71
(0.11%). Total: 66,027. |
Minnesota
(40) |
Precinct Caucuses |
Santorum
21,988
(44.95%), Paul 13,282 (27.15%), Romney 8,240 (16.85%),
Gingrich 5,263 (10.76%), Write-In 143. Total: 25,953. |
|
Missouri
(0) |
Primary
b |
Santorum 139,272 (55.22%), Romney
63,882 (25.33%), Paul 30,647 (12.15%), Uncommitted, 9,853 (3.91%),
Perry 2,456 (0.97%), Cain 2,306 (0.91%), Bachmann 1,680 (0.67%),
Huntsman 1,044 (0.41%), Johnson 536 (0.21%), Meehan 356 (0.14%),
Drummond 153 (0.06%).
Total: 252,212. |
|
Feb.4- Feb.11 |
Maine
(24) |
Municipal Caucuses |
Romney 2,373 (37.97%), Paul 2,258 (36.13%), Santorum 1,136 (18.18%), Gingrich 405 (6.48%), Undec. 60 (0.96%), Others 18. Total: 6,250. |
Feb. 28 |
Arizona
(29*) |
Primary |
Romney
239,167
(46.87%), Santorum 138,031 (27.05%), Gingrich 81,748
(16.02%), Paul 43,952 (8.61%), Others 7,360. Total: 510,258. |
Michigan
(30*) |
Primary |
Romney
409,522
(34.37%), Santorum 377,372 (31.68%), Paul 115,911
(9.72%), Gingrich 65,027 (5.46%), Uncommitted 18,809 (1.58%), Perry 1816 (0.15%), Roemer 1,784
(0.15%), Bachmann 1,735 (0.15%), Huntsman 1,674 (0.14%), Cain 1,211
(0.10%), Karger 1,180 (0.10%), Johnson 458 (0.03%).
Total: 1,191,386. |
|
Mar. 3 |
Washington
(43) |
Precinct Caucuses |
Romney
19,111
(37.65%), Paul 12,594 (24.81%), Santorum 12,089 (23.81%),
Gingrich 5,221 (10.28%), Uncommitted 1,656 (3.26%), Write-Ins 93.
Total: 50,764. |
Mar. 6 |
Alaska (27) |
District Conventions |
Romney
4,554
(32.22%), Santorum 4,254 (30.09%), Paul 3,410 (24.12%),
Gingrich 1,878 (13.29%), Unpledged 39 (0.27%). Total: 14,135. |
Georgia (76) |
Primary |
Gingrich
425,395
(47.19%), Romney 233,611 (25.91%), Santorum 176,259
(19.55%), Paul 59,100 (6.56%),
Huntsman 1,813 (0.20%), Bachmann 1,714 (0.19%), Perry 1,696 (0.19%),
Roemer 1,142 (0.13%), Johnson 740 (0.01%). Total: 901,470. |
|
Idaho (32) |
Caucus |
Romney
27,514
(61.59%), Santorum 8,115 (18.16%), Paul 8,086 (18.10%),
Gingrich 940 (2.10%), Others 17. Total: 44,672. |
|
Massachusetts (41) |
Primary |
Romney
266,313
(71.89%), Santorum 44,564 (12.03%), Paul 35,219 (9.51%),
Gingrich 16,991 (4.59%), Huntsman
2,268
(0.61%),
Perry
991
(0.27%),
Bachmann
865
(0.23%),
No
Pref.
1,793
(0.48%),
Others
613
(0.17%). Total: 370,425. |
|
North Dakota (28) |
Caucus |
Santorum
4,510
(39.74%), Paul 3,186 (28.07%), Romney 2,691 (23.71%),
Gingrich 962 (8.47%). Total: 11,349. |
|
Ohio (66) |
Primary |
Romney
460,831
(37.96%), Santorum 448,580 (36.95%), Gingrich 177,183
(14.60%), Paul 113,256 (9.33%),
Perry
7,539
(0.62%),
Huntsman
6,490
(0.53%). Total: 1,213,879. |
|
Oklahoma (43) |
Primary |
Santorum
96,849
(33.80%), Romney 80,356 (28.05%), Gingrich 78,730
(27.48%), Paul 27,596 (9.63%), Perry
1,291
(0.45%),
Bachmann
951
(0.33%),
Huntsman
750
(0.26%).
Total: 286,523. |
|
Tennessee (58) |
Primary |
Santorum
205,809
(37.11%), Romney 155,630 (28.06%), Gingrich 132,889
(23.96%), Paul 50,156 (9.04%),
Perry 1,966 (0.35%), Bachmann 1,895 (0.34%), Huntsman 1,239 (0.22%),
Roemer 881 (0.16%), Johnson 572 (0.10%), Uncommitted 3,536
(0.64%). Total: 554,573. |
|
Vermont (17) |
Primary |
Romney
24,008
(39.45%), Paul 15,391 (25.29%), Santorum 14,368 (23.61%),
Gingrich 4,949 (8.13%)... Total: 60,850. |
|
Virginia (49) |
Primary |
Romney
158,119
(59.53%), Paul 107,451 (40.46%). Total: 265,570. |
|
Mar. 6-10 |
Wyoming
(29) |
County Conventions |
Romney
822
(38.99%), Santorum 673 (31.93%), Paul 439 (20.83%), Gingrich
165 (7.83%), Other 9 (0.43%). Total: 2,108. |
Mar. 10 | Guam (9) |
Territorial Convention |
Romney
wins all 9 delegates. 215 eligible to vote; 207 present unanimous
by show of hands. |
No. Mariana
Islands (9) |
Territorial Convention |
Romney
740
(87.26%), Santorum 53 (6.25%), Paul 28 (3.30%), Gingrich 27
(3.18%). Total: 848. |
|
Kansas
(40) |
CD Caucus |
Santorum
15,521
(51.09%), Romney 6,346 (20.89%), Gingrich 4,358 (14.35%),
Paul 3,900 (12.84%), Other 252 (0.84%). Total: 30,377. |
|
Virgin
Islands (9) |
Territorial Caucus |
Romney
wins 6 delegates and gains additional uncommitted for total of 7, Paul
1 and uncommitted 1. Total cast: 384. |
|
Mar.
13 |
Alabama (5) |
Primary |
Santorum
214,540
(34.51%), Gingrich 182,194 (29.30%), Romney 180,244
(28.99%), Perry 1,865 (0.30%),
Bachmann 1,700 (0.27%), Huntsman 1,044 (0.17%), Uncommitted
9,242 (1.49%). Total: 621,731. |
Am. Samoa (9) |
Territorial Convention |
Romney
wins all 9 delegates. |
|
Hawaii (20) |
Precinct Caucuses |
Romney
4,548
(44.5%), Santorum 2,589 (25.3%), Paul 1,975 (19.3%),
Gingrich 1,116 (10.9%). Total: 10,228. |
|
Mississippi (40) |
Primary |
Santorum
96,156
(32.73%), Gingrich 91,499 (31.14%), Romney 90,069 (30.66%),
Paul 12,941 (4.40%), Perry
1,350 (0.46%), Bachmann 969 (0.33%), Huntsman 412 (0.14%), Johnson 391
(0.13%). Total: 293,787. |
|
Mar. 17 |
Missouri (52) |
Caucuses |
no straw poll... |
Mar. 18 |
Puerto
Rico (23) |
Primary |
Romney
99,009
(82.90%), Santorum 9,561 (8.01%), Roemer 2,638 (2.21%), Gingrich
2,442
(2.04%),
Karger
1,711
(1.43%),
Paul
1,465
(1.23%),
Others
2,602
(2.18%).
Total:
119,428. |
Mar. 20 |
Illinois
(69) |
Primary |
Romney
435,859
(46.69%), Santorum 326,778 (35.01%), Paul 86,044
(9.32%), Gingrich 74,482 (7.98%), Perry 5568 (0.60%), Roemer 3723
(0.40%). Total: 933,454. |
Mar. 24 |
Louisiana
(46) |
Primary |
Santorum
91,321
(48.99%), Romney 49,758 (26.69%), Gingrich 29,656
(15.91%), Paul 11,467 (6.15%), Roemer
2,203
(1.18%),
Perry
955
(0.51%),
Bachmann
622
(0.33%),
Huntsman
242
(0.13%),
Crow
186
(0.10%). Total: 186,410. |
Apr.
3 |
Maryland (37) |
Primary |
Romney
122,400
(49.26%), Santorum 71,349 (28.72%), Gingrich 27,240
(10.96%), Paul 23,609 (9.50%), Huntsman
1,484
(0.60%),
Perry
1,108
(0.45),
Roemer
901
(0.36%), Karger
377 (0.15%). Total: 248,468. |
Washington, DC (19) |
Primary |
Romney
3,577
(68.04%), Paul 621 (11.81%), Gingrich 558 (10.61%), Huntsman 348 (6.62%),
under votes 152 (2.69%). Total: 5,256. |
|
Wisconsin (42) |
Primary |
Romney
346,876
(44.03%), Santorum 290,139 (36.33%), Paul 87,858
(11.15%), Gingrich 45,978 (5.84%), Bachmann 6,045 (0.77%), Huntsman
5,083 (0.65%), uninstructed 4,200 (0.53%), scattering 1,668
(0.21%). Total: 787,847. |
|
[April 10 - Former Sen. Rick Santorum ends his campaign] + ...Romney is presumptive nominee | |||
Apr.
24 |
Connecticut (28) |
Primary |
Romney
40,171
(67.43%), Paul 8,032 (13.48%), Gingrich 6,135 (10.30%), Santorum 4,072 (6.83%),
Uncommitted 1,168 (1.96%). Total: 59,578. |
Delaware (17) |
Primary |
Romney
16,143
(56.46%), Gingrich 7,742 (27.08%), Paul 3,017 (10.55%), Santorum 1,690 (5.91%).
Total:
28,592. |
|
New York (95) |
Primary |
Romney
118,912
(62.72%), Paul 27,699 (14.61%), Gingrich 23,990 (12.65%), Santorum 18,997 (10.02%).
Total:
189,598. |
|
Pennsylvania (72) |
Primary |
Romney
468,374
(57.96%),
Santorum 149,056 (18.44%), Paul 106,148 (13.14%), Gingrich
84,537 (10.46%). Total: 808,115. |
|
Rhode Island (19) |
Primary |
Romney
9,178
(63.02%), Paul 3,473 (23.85%), Gingrich 880 (6.04%), Santorum 825 (5.66%), Roemer 40
(0.27%), write-in 37 (0.25%), uncommitted 131 (0.90%).
Total: 14,564. |
|
[May 2 - Former Speaker Newt Gingrich ends his campaign] + | |||
May 8 |
Indiana (46) |
Primary |
Romney
410,635
(64.61%), Paul 98,487 (15.50%), Santorum 85,332 (13.43%),
Gingrich 41,135 (6.47%). Total: 635,589. |
North Carolina (55) |
Primary |
Romney
638,601
(65.62%), Paul 108,217 (11.12%), Santorum 101,093 (10.39%),
Gingrich 74,367 (7.64%), No preference 50,928 (5.23%).
Total: 973,206. |
|
West Virginia (31) |
Primary |
Romney
78,197
(69.56%),
Santorum 13,590 (12.09%), Paul 12,412 (11.04%), Gingrich 7,076 (6.29%), Roemer
1,141 (1.01%). Total: 112,416. |
|
[May 14 - Rep.
Ron Paul ends active campaigning in upcoming states] + |
|||
May 15 |
Nebraska
(35) |
Non-Binding Primary |
Romney
131,436
(70.89%), Santorum 25,830
(13.93%), Paul 18,508 (9.98%), Gingrich 9,628 (5.19%).
Total: 185,402. |
Oregon (28) |
Primary |
Romney
204,176
(70.91%), Paul 36,810 (12.78%),
Santorum 27,042 (9.39%), Gingrich 15,451 (5.37%). Total: 287,955. |
|
May 22 |
Arkansas (36) |
Primary |
Romney
104,200
(68.39%), Paul
20,399 (13.39%), Santorum 20,308 (13.33%), Gingrich 7,453 (4.89%).
Total:
152,360. |
Kentucky (45) |
Primary |
Romney
117,621
(66.77%), Paul 22,074 (12.53%),
Santorum 15,629 (8.87%), Gingrich 10,479 (5.95%), Uncommitted
10,357 (5.88%). Total: 176,160. |
|
May 29 |
Texas (155) | Primary c | Romney
1,001,387
(69.08%),
Paul 174,207 (12.01%), Santorum 115,584 (7.97%), Gingrich 68,247
(4.70%), Uncommitted 60,659 (4.18%), Bachmann 12,097 (0.83%), Jon
Huntsman 8,695 (0.59%), Roemer 4,714 (0.32%), Davis 3,887 (0.26%).
Total: 1,449,477. |
Jun. 5 |
California (172) |
Primary |
Romney
1,530,513
(79.51%), Paul 199,246 (10.35%), Santorum
102,258
(5.31%), Gingrich 72,022 (3.74%), Roemer 12,520 (0.65%), Karger
8,393
(0.44%). Total: 1,924,952. |
Montana (26) |
Non-Binding Primary |
Romney
96,121
(68.22%), Paul 20,227 (14.36%), Santorum
12,546 (8.90%),
Gingrich 6,107 (4.33%), No Preference 5,546 (3.87%).
Total: 140,457. |
|
New Jersey (50) |
Primary |
Romney
188,121
(81.26%), Paul 24,071 (10.40%), Santorum
12,115 (5.23%),
Gingrich 7,212 (3.12%). Total: 231,519. |
|
New Mexico (23) |
Primary |
Romney
65,935
(73.17%), Santorum 9,517 (10.56%), Paul 9,363
(10.39%),
Gingrich 5,298 (5.88%). Total: 90,113. |
|
South Dakota (28) |
Primary |
Romney
33,872
(66.23%), Paul 6,657 (13.02%), Santorum 5,844
(11.43%), Uncommitted 2,771 (5.42%),
Gingrich
2,001
(3.91%). Total: 51,145.
|
|
Jun. 26 |
Utah (40) |
Primary |
Romney
225,428
(93.05%), Paul 11,520 (4.75%), Santorum 3,594
(1.48%),
Gingrich 1,148 (0.47%), Karger 584
(0.24%). Total: 242,272. |
Notes:
a. Iowa caucus results as reported on Caucus Night had Romney winning by 8 votes. Certified results (1,766 of 1,774 precincts) released on Jan. 19 gave Santorum the 34-vote margin.
b. The Missouri primary on February 7 was non-binding; Missouri Republicans started their process on March 17.
c. The Texas primary date was not set until March 1, 2012 to legal battle over redistricting. The primary was scheduled for April 3, then moved to May 29.
* Penalties per Rule 16 are -
New Hampshire - 12 delegates.
South Carolina - 25 delegates.
Florida - 49 delegates.
Arizona - 29 delegates.
Michigan - 29 delegates.
Bumps in The Road to Tampa
Former Gov. Mitt Romney was seen as the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination even before he announced. He had laid the groundwork with his 2007-08 campaign, he could raise the money, his business and Olympic experience suggested he could fix the economy, and as a Republican who had governed in Democratic Massachusetts he could plausibly argue he would be able to appeal to the broad electorate in the general election. However, Romney first had to get through the Republican primaries, and many conservatives were decidedly unenthusiastic.
In the quest for an alternative to Romney, most of the Republican contenders had their moments in the spotlight. In the pre-campaign period, Rep. Michelle Bachmann won the Iowa Straw Poll, Gov. Rick Perry was seen as a formidable contender when he entered, and businessman Herman Cain gained a huge boost out of Presidency V in Orlando. From time to time, even into March, pundits discussed the prospect that there might be a brokered convention, which changes in Republican rules made more likely than in past cycles. There was uneasiness over Romney's prospects, and some delegate mathematicians believed Romney would not quite be able to achieve the requisite 1,144.
It came time for actual voters to weigh in. Romney and former Sen. Rick Santorum both won the Iowa Caucuses. As expected Romney won the New Hampshire Primary. Next came South Carolina, with "a thirty year track record of picking the eventual Republican Presidential nominee." Former Speaker Newt Gingrich achieved his moment by winning the primary. At the end of January Romney's win in Florida re-established frontrunner status, but Santorum rebounded on February 7. Both Santorum's and Gingrich's campaigns might not have lasted as long as they did without the backing of a couple of billionaires (Sheldon Adelson supporting Gingrich and Foster Friess supporting Santorum).
February marked somewhat of a lull in the campaign. Relatively few delegates were at stake. Behind the scenes, an interesting scenario unfolded, although it was only revealed a year later. Joshua Green, writing at Bloomberg Businessweek on March 22, 2013 (>), reported that starting in early February the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns engaged in negotiations to form a unity ticket; the negotiations went on over a period of weeks but ultimately broke down over who would lead the ticket. Super Tuesday, March 6, marked more wins for Romney but Santorum and Gingrich did well enough to continue. (Despite the various ups and downs, the Obama campaign never changed its view that Romney would be the nominee).
Romney's road to inevitability had quite a few bumps, but by the end of March and first week of April he was seen as increasingly likely to be the nominee, being far ahead in terms of number of delegates, backing of the Republican estalishment, and available financial resources. At the end of March, for example, Newt 2012 reported cash on hand of $1.2 million and debts of $4.3 million. Politico's Mike Allen reported on March 27 that Gingrich's campaign would lay off about a third of full-time staff, although the former Speaker vowed to continue on to Tampa.
Speeches by Obama (+) and Romney (+) on March 30 outlined the broad themes of a general election match-up between the two. Romney's wins in the three April 3 primaries further advanced that storyline. On April 3 and 4 Obama and Romney delivered contrasting speeches (+) to newspaper editors and executives that many saw as presaging the general election. On April 4 Romney campaign's Spencer Zwick announced formation of Romney Victory, a joint fundraising committee with Romney for President, the Republican National Committee, and several battleground fund states.
Santorum, who was the strongest challenger to Romney, had been looking towards the April 24 primary in his home state of Pennsylvania, and his supporters wanted to press on (+), although others were calling for him to bow out, saying it was time for unity. A confluence of factors including the health of his daughter Bella and the possibility that he might lose in his home state prompted Santorum to suspend his campaign on April 10 (+).
This made Romney the presumptive nominee. In the succeeding days more of the Republican establishment including House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and another half dozen governors endorsed his candidacy. Romney also began to make additions to his national campaign team.
Gingrich pressed on, presenting himself as the conservative alternative. In an April 20 memo (+) his campaign manager highlighted Romney's weaknesses, pointed out there were 17 states remaining, and cited the example of Ronald Reagan's campaign in 1976. "If Newt does well in North Carolina, it could -- just as it did for Reagan -- set off a firestorm in places like Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas and California," Vince Haley wrote. The scenario had one major problem. The North Carolina primary was on May 8; Romney swept all five primaries on April 24, even tiny Delaware where Gingrich had focused his attention. Gingrich suspended his campaign on May 2.
Ron Paul continued to draw large crowds into May (+) and his campaign worked to accumulate delegates through caucus/convention processes. Finally, on May 14 the campaign issued a statement that it would, while continuing on to the convention in Tampa, " no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted." The Paul campaign reported it woud send nearly 200 bound delegates to the convention (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).
There was no doubt that Romney would be the nominee, although enthusiasm was still a question; for some Republican voters Romney was their third or fourth choice.
According to Richard E. Berg-Andersson's The Green Papers (>), 19.2 million votes were cast in Republican primaries and caucuses: 10.0 million (52.13%) for Romney, 3.9 million (20.44%) for Santorum, 2.7 million (14.21%) for Gingrich and 2.1 milllion (10.89%) for Ron Paul.
In retrospect many Republicans believe that the 2012 primary campaign dragged on for too long. By the end of April, the Romney campaign had already recorded total receipts of over $100 million, but it finished the month with cash on hand of $9.2 million and would be facing an organization that had been in the making since 2009—first as Organizing for America at the DNC and then in the campaign launched in April 2011—and had cash on hand of $115.2 million. Not until June did the Romney campaign really begin to bulk up its staff for the Fall.
Running
the
Numbers
on
the
2012
Republican
Presidential
Primary
Campaigna. Iowa caucus results as reported on Caucus Night had Romney winning by 8 votes. Certified results (1,766 of 1,774 precincts) released on Jan. 19 gave Santorum the 34-vote margin.
b. The Missouri primary on February 7 was non-binding; Missouri Republicans started their process on March 17.
c. The Texas primary date was not set until March 1, 2012 to legal battle over redistricting. The primary was scheduled for April 3, then moved to May 29.
* Penalties per Rule 16 are -
New Hampshire - 12 delegates.
South Carolina - 25 delegates.
Florida - 49 delegates.
Arizona - 29 delegates.
Michigan - 29 delegates.
Bumps in The Road to Tampa
Former Gov. Mitt Romney was seen as the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination even before he announced. He had laid the groundwork with his 2007-08 campaign, he could raise the money, his business and Olympic experience suggested he could fix the economy, and as a Republican who had governed in Democratic Massachusetts he could plausibly argue he would be able to appeal to the broad electorate in the general election. However, Romney first had to get through the Republican primaries, and many conservatives were decidedly unenthusiastic.
In the quest for an alternative to Romney, most of the Republican contenders had their moments in the spotlight. In the pre-campaign period, Rep. Michelle Bachmann won the Iowa Straw Poll, Gov. Rick Perry was seen as a formidable contender when he entered, and businessman Herman Cain gained a huge boost out of Presidency V in Orlando. From time to time, even into March, pundits discussed the prospect that there might be a brokered convention, which changes in Republican rules made more likely than in past cycles. There was uneasiness over Romney's prospects, and some delegate mathematicians believed Romney would not quite be able to achieve the requisite 1,144.
It came time for actual voters to weigh in. Romney and former Sen. Rick Santorum both won the Iowa Caucuses. As expected Romney won the New Hampshire Primary. Next came South Carolina, with "a thirty year track record of picking the eventual Republican Presidential nominee." Former Speaker Newt Gingrich achieved his moment by winning the primary. At the end of January Romney's win in Florida re-established frontrunner status, but Santorum rebounded on February 7. Both Santorum's and Gingrich's campaigns might not have lasted as long as they did without the backing of a couple of billionaires (Sheldon Adelson supporting Gingrich and Foster Friess supporting Santorum).
February marked somewhat of a lull in the campaign. Relatively few delegates were at stake. Behind the scenes, an interesting scenario unfolded, although it was only revealed a year later. Joshua Green, writing at Bloomberg Businessweek on March 22, 2013 (>), reported that starting in early February the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns engaged in negotiations to form a unity ticket; the negotiations went on over a period of weeks but ultimately broke down over who would lead the ticket. Super Tuesday, March 6, marked more wins for Romney but Santorum and Gingrich did well enough to continue. (Despite the various ups and downs, the Obama campaign never changed its view that Romney would be the nominee).
Romney's road to inevitability had quite a few bumps, but by the end of March and first week of April he was seen as increasingly likely to be the nominee, being far ahead in terms of number of delegates, backing of the Republican estalishment, and available financial resources. At the end of March, for example, Newt 2012 reported cash on hand of $1.2 million and debts of $4.3 million. Politico's Mike Allen reported on March 27 that Gingrich's campaign would lay off about a third of full-time staff, although the former Speaker vowed to continue on to Tampa.
Speeches by Obama (+) and Romney (+) on March 30 outlined the broad themes of a general election match-up between the two. Romney's wins in the three April 3 primaries further advanced that storyline. On April 3 and 4 Obama and Romney delivered contrasting speeches (+) to newspaper editors and executives that many saw as presaging the general election. On April 4 Romney campaign's Spencer Zwick announced formation of Romney Victory, a joint fundraising committee with Romney for President, the Republican National Committee, and several battleground fund states.
Santorum, who was the strongest challenger to Romney, had been looking towards the April 24 primary in his home state of Pennsylvania, and his supporters wanted to press on (+), although others were calling for him to bow out, saying it was time for unity. A confluence of factors including the health of his daughter Bella and the possibility that he might lose in his home state prompted Santorum to suspend his campaign on April 10 (+).
This made Romney the presumptive nominee. In the succeeding days more of the Republican establishment including House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and another half dozen governors endorsed his candidacy. Romney also began to make additions to his national campaign team.
Gingrich pressed on, presenting himself as the conservative alternative. In an April 20 memo (+) his campaign manager highlighted Romney's weaknesses, pointed out there were 17 states remaining, and cited the example of Ronald Reagan's campaign in 1976. "If Newt does well in North Carolina, it could -- just as it did for Reagan -- set off a firestorm in places like Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas and California," Vince Haley wrote. The scenario had one major problem. The North Carolina primary was on May 8; Romney swept all five primaries on April 24, even tiny Delaware where Gingrich had focused his attention. Gingrich suspended his campaign on May 2.
Ron Paul continued to draw large crowds into May (+) and his campaign worked to accumulate delegates through caucus/convention processes. Finally, on May 14 the campaign issued a statement that it would, while continuing on to the convention in Tampa, " no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted." The Paul campaign reported it woud send nearly 200 bound delegates to the convention (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).
There was no doubt that Romney would be the nominee, although enthusiasm was still a question; for some Republican voters Romney was their third or fourth choice.
According to Richard E. Berg-Andersson's The Green Papers (>), 19.2 million votes were cast in Republican primaries and caucuses: 10.0 million (52.13%) for Romney, 3.9 million (20.44%) for Santorum, 2.7 million (14.21%) for Gingrich and 2.1 milllion (10.89%) for Ron Paul.
In retrospect many Republicans believe that the 2012 primary campaign dragged on for too long. By the end of April, the Romney campaign had already recorded total receipts of over $100 million, but it finished the month with cash on hand of $9.2 million and would be facing an organization that had been in the making since 2009—first as Organizing for America at the DNC and then in the campaign launched in April 2011—and had cash on hand of $115.2 million. Not until June did the Romney campaign really begin to bulk up its staff for the Fall.
Total
Receipts |
Total
Disbursements |
COH |
Debts |
|
Bachmann for President (+) 1 |
$9,427,351.34 |
$9,261,734.81 |
$165,617.53 |
$1,049,567.39 |
Friends of Herman Cain
Inc. (+) |
$16,914,477.94 |
$16,899,857.82 |
$4,117.46 |
$450,000.00 |
Newt 2012 (+) |
$24,751,773.99 |
$24,649,486.17 |
$75,046.13 |
$4,667,453.75 |
Jon Huntsman for
President Inc. (+) 2 |
$9,173,365.13 |
$9,173,365.13 | -- |
-- |
McCotter 2012 (+) |
$550,437.19 |
$549,822.09 |
$615.10 |
$105,636.24 |
Ron Paul 2012 PCC Inc. (+) |
$41,060,317.74 |
$39,968,390.37 |
$1,091,927.37 |
-- |
Pawlenty for President (+) |
$5,965,502.16 |
$5,965,502.16 | -- |
-- |
RickPerry.org Inc. (+) |
$20,593,463.65 |
$20,194,582.33 |
$394,512.46 | -- |
Romney for President Inc.
3 |
$100,394,962.81 |
$91,196,666.20 |
$9,211,335.34 |
-- |
Rick Santorum for
President Inc.
(+) |
$23,435,355.96 |
$23,160,617.50 |
$126,273.71 |
$732,035.38 |
1. Bachmann numbers are from the Feb. 2012 monthly report (covering Jan. 1-25), which is the most recent one found; subsequent reports are from her congressional committee.
2. Huntsman receipts includes $5.1 million in loans received from or guaranteed by the candidate.
3. Romney numbers are from the May 2012 monthly report (covering April 1-30).