2012 Republican Primary and Caucus Results--Summary Page

Notes:
a. Iowa caucus results as reported on Caucus Night had Romney winning by 8 votes.  Certified results (1,766 of 1,774 precincts) released on Jan. 19 gave Santorum the 34-vote margin.

b. The Missouri primary on February 7 was non-binding; Missouri Republicans started their process on March 17.
 
c. The Texas primary date was not set until March 1, 2012 to legal battle over redistricting.  The primary was scheduled for April 3, then moved to May 29.

* Penalties per Rule 16 are -
New Hampshire - 12 delegates. 
South Carolina - 25 delegates. 
Florida - 49 delegates. 
Arizona - 29 delegates. 
Michigan - 29 delegates.

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Bumps in The Road to Tampa
Former Gov. Mitt Romney was seen as the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican nomination even before he announced.  He had laid the groundwork with his 2007-08 campaign, he could raise the money, his business and Olympic experience suggested he could fix the economy, and as a Republican who had governed in Democratic Massachusetts he could plausibly argue he would be able to appeal to the broad electorate in the general election.  However, Romney first had to get through the Republican primaries, and many conservatives were decidedly unenthusiastic. 

In the quest for an alternative to Romney, most of the Republican contenders had their moments in the spotlight.  In the pre-campaign period, Rep. Michelle Bachmann won the Iowa Straw Poll, Gov. Rick Perry was seen as a formidable contender when he entered, and businessman Herman Cain gained a huge boost out of Presidency V in Orlando.  From time to time, even into March, pundits discussed the prospect that there might be a brokered convention, which changes in Republican rules made more likely than in past cycles.  There was uneasiness over Romney's prospects, and some delegate mathematicians believed Romney would not quite be able to achieve the requisite 1,144. 

It came time for actual voters to weigh in.  Romney and former Sen. Rick Santorum both won the Iowa Caucuses.  As expected Romney won the New Hampshire Primary.  Next came South Carolina, with "a thirty year track record of picking the eventual Republican Presidential nominee."  Former Speaker Newt Gingrich achieved his moment by winning the primary.  At the end of January Romney's win in Florida re-established frontrunner status, but Santorum rebounded on February 7.  Both Santorum's and Gingrich's campaigns might not have lasted as long as they did without the backing of a couple of billionaires (Sheldon Adelson supporting Gingrich and Foster Friess supporting Santorum). 

February marked somewhat of a lull in the campaign.  Relatively few delegates were at stake.  Behind the scenes, an interesting scenario unfolded, although it was only revealed a year later.  Joshua Green, writing at Bloomberg Businessweek on March 22, 2013 (>), reported that starting in early February the Santorum and Gingrich campaigns engaged in negotiations to form a unity ticket; the negotiations went on over a period of weeks but ultimately broke down over who would lead the ticket.  Super Tuesday, March 6, marked more wins for Romney but Santorum and Gingrich did well enough to continue.  (Despite the various ups and downs, the Obama campaign never changed its view that Romney would be the nominee).

Romney's road to inevitability had quite a few bumps, but by the end of March and first week of April he was seen as increasingly likely to be the nominee, being far ahead in terms of number of delegates, backing of the Republican estalishment, and available financial resources.  At the end of March, for example, Newt 2012 reported cash on hand of $1.2 million and debts of $4.3 million.  Politico's Mike Allen reported on March 27 that Gingrich's campaign would lay off about a third of full-time staff, although the former Speaker vowed to continue on to Tampa. 

Speeches by Obama (+) and Romney (+) on March 30 outlined the broad themes of a general election match-up between the two.  Romney's wins in the three April 3 primaries further advanced that storyline.  On April 3 and 4 Obama and Romney delivered contrasting speeches (+) to newspaper editors and executives that many saw as presaging the general election.  On April 4 Romney campaign's Spencer Zwick announced formation of Romney Victory, a joint fundraising committee with Romney for President, the Republican National Committee, and several battleground fund states. 

Santorum, who was the strongest challenger to Romney, had been looking towards the April 24 primary in his home state of Pennsylvania, and his supporters wanted to press on (+), although others were calling for him to bow out, saying it was time for unity.  A confluence of factors including the health of his daughter Bella and the possibility that he might lose in his home state prompted Santorum to suspend his campaign on April 10 (+). 

This made Romney the presumptive nominee.  In the succeeding days more of the Republican establishment including House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and another half dozen governors endorsed his candidacy.  Romney also began to make additions to his national campaign team.

Gingrich pressed on, presenting himself as the conservative alternative.  In an April 20 memo (+) his campaign manager highlighted Romney's weaknesses, pointed out there were 17 states remaining, and cited the example of Ronald Reagan's campaign in 1976.  "If Newt does well in North Carolina, it could -- just as it did for Reagan -- set off a firestorm in places like Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas and California," Vince Haley wrote.  The scenario had one major problem.  The North Carolina primary was on May 8; Romney swept all five primaries on April 24, even tiny Delaware where Gingrich had focused his attention.  Gingrich suspended his campaign on May 2.

Ron Paul continued to draw large crowds into May (+) and his campaign worked to accumulate delegates through caucus/convention processes.  Finally, on May 14 the campaign issued a statement that it would, while continuing on to the convention in Tampa, " no longer spend resources campaigning in primaries in states that have not yet voted."  The Paul campaign reported it woud send nearly 200 bound delegates to the convention (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). 

There was no doubt that Romney would be the nominee, although enthusiasm was still a question; for some Republican voters Romney was their third or fourth choice. 

According to Richard E. Berg-Andersson's The Green Papers (>), 19.2 million votes were cast in Republican primaries and caucuses: 10.0 million (52.13%) for Romney, 3.9 million (20.44%) for Santorum, 2.7 million (14.21%) for Gingrich and 2.1 milllion (10.89%) for Ron Paul. 

In retrospect many Republicans believe that the 2012 primary campaign dragged on for too long.  By the end of April, the Romney campaign had already recorded total receipts of over $100 million, but it finished the month with cash on hand of $9.2 million and would be facing an organization that had been in the making since 2009—first as Organizing for America at the DNC and then in the campaign launched in April 2011—and had cash on hand of $115.2 million.  Not until June did the Romney campaign really begin to bulk up its staff for the Fall.

	Total Receipts	Total Disbursements	COH	Debts
Bachmann for President (+) 1	$9,427,351.34	$9,261,734.81	$165,617.53	$1,049,567.39
Friends of Herman Cain Inc. (+)	$16,914,477.94	$16,899,857.82	$4,117.46	$450,000.00
Newt 2012 (+)	$24,751,773.99	$24,649,486.17	$75,046.13	$4,667,453.75
Jon Huntsman for President Inc. (+) 2	$9,173,365.13	$9,173,365.13	--	--
McCotter 2012 (+)	$550,437.19	$549,822.09	$615.10	$105,636.24
Ron Paul 2012 PCC Inc. (+)	$41,060,317.74	$39,968,390.37	$1,091,927.37	--
Pawlenty for President (+)	$5,965,502.16	$5,965,502.16	--	--
RickPerry.org Inc. (+)	$20,593,463.65	$20,194,582.33	$394,512.46	--
Romney for President Inc. 3	$100,394,962.81	$91,196,666.20	$9,211,335.34	--
Rick Santorum for President Inc. (+)	$23,435,355.96	$23,160,617.50	$126,273.71	$732,035.38