Independent Activity

Independent of potential presidential candidates, their advocates (and sometimes their opponents) are active on the Web working to spread the word.

Independent sites include active communities with a number of contributors, others that are the handiworks of one or two dedicated supporters, and more one-dimensional, static sites that are effectively online brochures or broadsides.

Some sites are framed as "draft" efforts designed to show and foster support. These may seek to identify state coordinators and build active communities, or they can be simple online petitions. Probably the most frequent sites are those done by an individual or a small group of supporters that have frequent postings on a presidential prospect's activities. These have an element of fan club boosterism, and tend to echo or repeat content from a potential candidate's official site, but others can be more thoughtful or thought-provoking. On the flip side are attack sites highlighting negative aspect of a presidential prospect's record. Also noted were a couple of sites that are seeking to raise money in the event a hopeful gets in the race. Finally there are also less serious, peripheral sites put up to hawk bumperstickers or to draw traffic to another website.

Independent sites range in sophistication from highly polished websites communicating across a number of platforms (Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, MeetUp groups and so forth) to simple blogs. Note that this survey does not delve into Facebook activity, although that does merit serious examination.

Content on independent sites typically includes recent articles and video clips, oftentimes there is a comment or discussion component, and sometimes there may be merchandise available. Independent on-line efforts can occasionally lead to off-line activity such as information tables at a political conferences or meetings.

The independent sites typically have limited lifespans. Some peter out as the authors run into time constraints or lose interest. If the principal makes it clear that he or she will not be a candidate or announces as a candidate the dynamics change, and the motivation disappears.

In the 2012 pre-campaign period, 2009-10, former Gov. Sarah Palin inspired far and away the most activity. Supporters of Rep. Ron Paul and former Gov. Mike Huckabee were active. Former Gov. Mitt Romney has inspired a range of activity. "Mitt Romney Central" was one of the best of the supporter blogs. A "Why Romney" site went up to correct false claims, and, on the opposing side, "Multiple Choice Mitt" featured side by side video clips to argue that the Romney is "on every side of every issue." Many prospects inspired draft efforts; some of these were fairly static. Gov. Mitch Daniels probably inspired the most sustained grassroots activity while Gov. Chris Christie may have inspired the most talk. Meanwhile, Govs. Tim Pawlenty and Haley Barbour, despite being seen as leading prospects, inspired very minimal activity (for Pawlenty there was one site put up by an Iowa county GOP chair that was not subsequently updated and only a 2008 Barbour for VP sited was observed).

It is interesting to consider what effect all this activity has. Is there a correlation between the amount of independent pre-campaign/pre-primary activity and the success or lack of success a campaign may encounter should the individual decide to become a candidate? Can a draft effort actually persuade a reluctant individual to get in the race?