MEMO from
Newt 2012
March 13, 2012
Gingrich Advisers Highlight Half Time
Strategy, Path to the Nomination
Atlanta, GA – Newt 2012
released today an internal memo from Randy Evans, Senior Adviser, and
Martin Baker, Newt 2012 National Political Director, to campaign staff,
laying out the delegath math heading into the Louisiana Primary on
March 24th, and a path to the Republican nomination:
TO: Newt 2012 Campaign Staff
FROM: Randy Evans, Senior Adviser and Martin Baker, National Political
Director
DATE: March 13, 2012
SUBJECT: An Historical Nomination Process Underway
Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that dominates the news media,
Newt Gingrich is well positioned to win the GOP nomination and here’s
why.
Today’s contests in Alabama, American Samoa, Hawaii, and Mississippi
are big, but it’s still early. Louisiana, on March 24th, will
actually be “halftime” in the race for the GOP nomination.
Heading into Louisiana, states with delegates totaling 1,141 will have
decided - just short of the 1,144 needed for the nomination. It
will be Louisiana that moves the process past the halfway mark with 34
states accounting for 1,187 delegates having been voted.
Yet by halftime, the process will be far from over. Just look at
the math.
One half of the 1,144 delegates needed for the nomination is 572.
To date, according to the RNC and factoring in results from Kansas and
Wyoming on Saturday, Mitt Romney has only 350 bound delegates.
Between, now and Louisiana, there are only 170 total bound delegates
available – and that count includes Missouri whose delegates, while
bound, will actually be elected at conventions later this spring.
Even if Romney could get 100% of the available bound delegates before
Louisiana (which he cannot), he would still be well short of 572.
Instead, with the proportional allocations that apply, Mitt
Romney’s more likely 57 additional delegates would only put him at 407
total delegates (35.6%) - well short of the 572 needed to be halfway to
the magic number.
With a steady 35% of delegates and no change in sight, the fact that
Romney advisers have undoubtedly told him is that he can no longer
force his nomination. Mathematically, the numbers are just not
there. Instead, with 4 candidates remaining, the GOP nomination
now moves into unchartered waters with history in the making.
The sequencing and pace of the second half favors Newt. When this
process started, Newt’s team had two goals: block an early Romney
nomination; and plan for a sequenced and paced second half.
Newt stopped Romney in South Carolina and subsequently weathered a
multi-million dollar barrage of attacks in Florida, surviving to win in
Georgia on Super Tuesday.
Starting with Louisiana, there is the second half and the sequence is
important.
After Louisiana on March 24th, there are primaries on April 3rd in the
District of Columbia (winner take all without Santorum on the ballot);
Maryland (a favorable state); and Wisconsin (Callista Gingrich’s home
state).
Then, the process slows – permitting all of the candidates to work the
states, not just the one with money.
On April 24th, more than four weeks after Louisiana, Senator Santorum
faces a ‘must win’ in Pennsylvania (whose delegates remain unbound
regardless of outcome) with other big contests that day in Connecticut,
Delaware, Rhode Island and delegate rich New York (95).
Two weeks later, on May 8th, there are more southern primaries in North
Carolina and West Virginia along with Indiana. On May 15, there
are primaries in Nebraska and Oregon.
Then, the delegate rich 3-week dash that could decide the nomination
begins with more southern primaries in Arkansas and Kentucky on May
22nd. They lead into Texas (155 delegates) on May 29th.
After 2 weeks of southern primaries, the process then turns on June 5th
to California (172 delegates), New Jersey (50), New Mexico and South
Dakota. California and New Jersey alone represent almost 20% of
the delegates needed for the nomination.
In total, the states in this final 3 week stretch have 509 total
delegates – or almost half of what is needed for the nomination.
The final primary (Utah) is not for three weeks afterwards on June 26.
So here is the bottom-line reality: this nomination will not be decided
until the fourth quarter – and that is not until June. It also
means that the candidate who closes strongest in this race is going to
win.
It is a long way until June 26th. Republicans indeed get to be a
part of history, not more of the same.
So buckle up. This race is not going to be won or lost over
backroom deals or endless and mind-numbing discussions in the media
over delegate counts. This race is going to be decided by a big
debate – a big choice – among GOP primary voters about the future of
the Republican Party; what it stands for, and which candidate has the
most compelling vision and most credibility to carry forward a
conservative governing agenda.
That is the debate Newt is going to win, and with it, the nomination
and the election.
###
R.C. Hammond
Press Secretary