PRESS RELEASE from NARAL Pro-Choice America
September 21,
2012
Memo to Interested Parties: NARAL
Pro-Choice America Strategy to Reach “Obama Defector” Women
This week, NARAL Pro-Choice America rolled out the next phase of its
2012 electoral program. The program centers around
targeting “Obama
Defectors” - women who voted for President Obama in 2008 but who are
currently supporting Romney, weakly supporting Obama, or holding back
from turning out to vote in 2012.
NARAL Pro-Choice
America enlisted the help of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (GQRR)
to create models targeting these women based on their pro-choice
values. This is the only turnout model like this in existence. It
focuses on 25 key counties, which allows for more efficiency and thus
allows us to maximize communications to a small, hard-to-find
audience. No other group will be able to find these women as
efficiently as NARAL Pro-Choice America.
While the economy remains a top issue in this election, there is no
doubt that is front and center. From campaign ads and convention
speeches to overall media coverage, the reproductive-rights issue can
add real value and NARAL Pro-Choice America is best positioned to
maximize those returns.
What We Did:
- During June and July, NARAL Pro-Choice America worked with GQRR
to
complete more than 20,000 interviews to identify the set of women in
battleground states who are most likely to have voted for President
Obama in 2008, but who are not supporting him strongly in 2012.
Using
microtargeting, these women were also categorized as pro-choice or
anti-choice. We built three models – choice, persuasion, and
turnout.
We then cross referenced them to identify the pro-choice women most
likely to be Obama defectors.
- GQRR identified two kinds of “Obama Defectors”: 1) Persuasion
Defectors --those most likely to have voted for Obama in 2008 and are
either supporting Romney, are undecided, or are only “soft” Obama
supporters in 2012 and 2) Turnout Defectors --those most likely to have
voted for Obama in 2008, are strong supporters now, but are less likely
to turn out in 2012.
- Women most likely to be pro-choice and most likely to be a
persuasion or turnout defector were identified in 25 counties in nine
battleground states: CO, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA, WI.
Findings:
- There are 338,000 women in these battleground counties who are
most
likely to fit the pro-choice Obama Defector persuasion profile.
- The majority of the most likely pro-choice Obama Defector women
are independent and between the ages of 18 and 39.
- If these voters are reminded of the contrast between President
Obama’s position and an anti- choice candidate’s position on choice,
they are more likely to vote for President Obama.
What it Means:
- NARAL Pro-Choice America will now be able to maximize efficiency
in
targeting its resources to communicate directly with prime voter
targets with a specific pro-choice message. This means more
communications to likely defectors and less wasted resources.
Media Coverage:
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and NARAL Pro-Choice
America Target Pro-Choice Obama Defector Women in 25 Key Swing State
Counties
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 21, 2012. Washington, DC.
Working with NARAL Pro-Choice America, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner
Research has built a one-of-a-kind “Obama Persuasion Defector”
model.
The model allows NARAL Pro-Choice America to identify the set of women
who are most likely to be pro-choice and to have voted for President
Obama in 2008, but who are now voting for Mitt Romney, another
candidate, are undecided, or are only weakly supporting the
President.
Additionally, GQRR built an “Obama Turnout Defector” model—women who
voted for the President in 2008 and strongly support him now, but are
less likely to vote in 2012.
Selected media coverage includes:
Contact:
Samantha Gordon