Dear Supporter:
During the course of my campaign for President, I have emphasized that
I am putting "all of my chips" on New Hampshire.
As I travel there, I see our message resonating more than anywhere
else. That’s great news, because it’s no secret that New Hampshire is
absolutely key to the nominating process.
Just ask Ronald Reagan or Bill Clinton.
Candidates who were previously obscure nationally can go to prominence
overnight as a result of a good showing, and for that reason, it is the
linchpin in our strategy.
Right now, campaigning in New Hampshire reminds me a lot of when I
first ran for governor in New Mexico. Slowly, but surely, retail
politics pays off. I can’t tell you how much I see my name recognition
climbing there.
The national press may not know it yet, but our momentum in the state
is on a near-vertical ascent.
Because it is such an important part of our plan, I have asked my
campaign strategist, Ron Nielson, to outline our plans for the state in
more detail. It is important to me that you know exactly where we are
headed, and how you can get more involved.
Please take a moment to read the memo from Ron below. Or, if it’s
easier, you can also read it on my website at:
http://www.GaryJohnson2012.com/new-hampshire-path.
I think you’ll find that the memo clearly explains our campaign
strategy for these next few months. But if it doesn’t, simply reply to
this email with your suggestions. As always, I want to hear what you
think.
Live free,
Gary
MEMORANDUM
TO:
Team
Johnson
FROM:
Ron
Nielson, Senior Advisor
Gary
Johnson
for President 2012
RE:
The
New
Hampshire Path
DATE:
September
6, 2011
Taking on the Establishment
As you know, one of Gary Johnson’s trademarks is transparency:
transparency in governing, and transparency in his campaign for
president. Thus, as we enter the crucial post-Labor Day push toward the
primaries and caucuses that will commence very early in 2012, Governor
Johnson has asked that we share, with great clarity, our strategy for
achieving “top tier” status among the candidates for the Republican
nomination – and ultimately, the nomination itself.
Governor Johnson is not an establishment candidate and does not enjoy
the same level of national recognition and financing as other
candidates. He has never run for national office and, despite his
unparalleled record as governor of New Mexico, he has not been
previously placed in the national spotlight. This simple lack of
recognition poses obvious challenges, including the reality that the
national polls reported in the media at this stage of the campaign are
largely the product of name recognition and the national exposure Gary
yet to gain.
Likewise, unlike most of the other candidates, Gary Johnson did not
enter this race with an established fundraising network. We didn’t have
a database; we had a Rolodex. That reality clearly presents challenges,
and demands a strategy based upon targeting resources and building a
truly grassroots campaign.
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Does Polling Matter?
Even with these realities, we have made tremendous progress – progress
that is only now beginning to register in the polls. As a professional
pollster, I can tell you that current polls are based more on name
recognition than on preference or understanding of the candidates.
National polls are also a ‘lagging indicator’ in terms of measuring the
progress of the kind of personal, on-the-ground campaign we have
conducted to date. When you consider the money that has been spent by
other candidates, as well as the exposure they have been granted by the
national media, it is remarkable that Governor Johnson is registering
equal or even better levels of support than several other, better-known
and better-funded candidates. (See the latest national CNN poll.)
…and as a matter of fact, if polling data at this point in the cycle
were predictive of the eventual nominee, Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis,
Bill Clinton and John McCain would never have been on the ticket, and
several other names we have since forgotten would have been nominees
instead. The volatility we are seeing in the race today indicates only
one certainty: that the majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning
Independents are still looking for a candidate they can
enthusiastically support…and the vast majority of those voters do not
yet know Gary Johnson.
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“The New Hampshire Path”
All of these factors present challenges – and more importantly, an
opportunity to execute a strategy we call the “New Hampshire Path.” In
1994, when I first started working with Gary Johnson, he came out of
the entrepreneurial arena to announce he was seeking the Republican
nomination for Governor of New Mexico, his name recognition was
essentially zero, he had no established base of support, and frankly,
the traditional Republican wisdom gave him no chance of success. Four
months before the Republican primary Gary was only at 2% in the polls —
we were actually thrilled that he registered at all. Within three weeks
of that time we had conducted a strong marketing campaign and Gary’s
support was in the low 20s. He took his case to the voters in a very
methodical, personal, and in some ways, unconventional manner – and he
won the nomination. He then took that case to general election voters,
and defeated an incumbent in a 2-1 Democrat state. And, of course, he
was reelected in that same overwhelmingly Democrat environment.
As the “first in the nation” primary state, New Hampshire presents an
opportunity to deploy a very similar strategy. It is a relatively small
state where voters demand their candidates be “real.” It is a state
where resources can be used very efficiently and very productively to
convey Gary’s message, and it is a state which historically is not
subject to domination or manipulation by special interests, the
‘establishment’, or those who place disproportionate emphasis on social
issues as opposed to core Republican principles of small government,
individual freedom and careful stewardship of managing the public’s
pocket book. In short, New Hampshire is a level playing field on which
Gary Johnson will compete very effectively if given the opportunity.
New Hampshire is the place where we can create momentum.
Being the site of the first primary of 2012, New Hampshire is the
center of attention for much of the nation’s media coverage of the
campaign, and as Gary gains measurable support there, it will translate
into broader support throughout the country. New Hampshire’s role in
the process is well documented, and our strategy is to take full
advantage of that reality.
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The Goal
We have developed a plan and a budget that will allow us to focus our
resources like a laser on New Hampshire and, we are confident, that
with the resources needed we can rapidly increase Gary’s profile,
recognition and support among New Hampshire primary voters. The plan is
simple, it is straightforward, and given the strength of our message
and Gary’s record, it will rapidly garner enough support in New
Hampshire to demand the attention of the national media – which will in
turn translate into substantial support in other key states as well.
Specifically, given the financial support to accomplish key tasks in
New Hampshire, we project that support for Gary will, within a short
time, be at 5-10% in that state’s polls among a very crowded field.
Upon reaching that benchmark, we will be in a position to raise enough
funds and organizational support to clearly demonstrate that Gary
Johnson is a serious contender for the nomination. Based upon what we
have seen in the more than 36 states Gary has visited so far, it is
obvious that the potential for a national groundswell of support
exists, with New Hampshire providing the spark with which to ignite it.
The budget above details our New Hampshire Path. In a nutshell, by
conducting what is essentially a statewide campaign for a “state”
election, we can achieve the 5-10% level of support through the prudent
expenditure of roughly $200,000. That will not only include literature,
signs and other grassroots tools, but also strategic media buys
targeted to potential primary voters.
The foundation for this strategy has been laid. As you know, Gary has
visited New Hampshire 15 times in the past several months, he announced
his candidacy there, and only last week, he completed a 9-day tour of
the state during which he was well-received and widely covered by the
local and regional media. We have a headquarters established in
Manchester with five excellent campaign staff members and a growing
network of volunteers.
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Conclusion
We are ready to take the campaign to another level in New Hampshire,
and we are confident that the results will be dramatic as the broader
electorate of the state gets the opportunity to know Gary Johnson,
learn of his record in New Mexico, and understand his vision for
leading America to freedom, prosperity and genuine strength.
While Gary will be spending much of his time and the campaign will be
focusing its media and organizational efforts in New Hampshire, we will
obviously continue to participate in major national Republican and
conservative events across the country. Likewise, we will continue to
grow our fundraising efforts and grass roots strength nation-wide,
including events and enlisting finance and strategic leadership in
every state.
When Gary Johnson made the commitment in 1994 to run for governor and
provide the leadership New Mexico needed, few believed he could
actually do it, very few. Those naysayers were wrong and even his
political adversaries today recognize that it was a serious mistake to
underestimate him. He has made the same commitment to serve America,
and just as he did when he climbed Mt. Everest, Gary Johnson knows the
path to the Republican nomination, and he won’t stop climbing until he
reaches the summit.
The next few months will be an exciting journey, beginning in New
Hampshire, and we are anxious to get going.
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