MEMO from Romney for President
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Rich Beeson, Political Director
SUBJECT: The Road Ahead - A Reality Check
DATE: February 7, 2012
Since launching his campaign for
President in June, Governor Romney has dominated the debates, travelled
tens of thousands of miles rallying Americans with his conservative
message of American renewal and clearly emerged as the one Republican
who can defeat President Obama and restore American greatness.
As the campaign moves forward toward Super Tuesday, it has become
apparent that Mitt Romney is the only candidate with the organizational
strength and broad-based appeal to secure delegates in all remaining
primaries and caucuses. Of course, there is no way for any nominee to
win first place in every single contest -- John McCain lost 19 states
in 2008, and we expect our opponents to notch a few wins too. But
unlike the other candidates, our campaign has the resources and
organization to keep winning over the long run. A winning conservative
message, hard work and old fashioned delegate math will win this race
for Governor Romney.
Past Contests
After a virtual tie in Iowa, Governor Romney won resounding victories
in New Hampshire, Florida and Nevada. He now has a significant delegate
lead, and he is the only candidate to have earned delegates in every
available contest.
Future Contests
The Reality of February
It is difficult to see what Governor Romney's opponents can do to
change the dynamics of the race in February. No delegates will be
awarded on February 7 -- Colorado and Minnesota hold caucuses with
nonbinding preference polls, and the Missouri primary is purely a
beauty contest. Except for the Maine and Wyoming nonbinding caucuses
running through February, the next contests are on February 28 in
states where Governor Romney is strong. Arizona's 29 delegates will be
bound in a winner-take-all contest. Michigan, the state where Governor
Romney grew up, binds 30 delegates.
March Contests
The rules for the March states offer even less comfort to Governor
Romney's opponents. With so many states and territories voting,
organization and resources are key. Ours is the only campaign to be
active in all of these states, and we have the resources and
organization to maximize delegate totals according to each state's
rules. Speaker Gingrich and Senator Santorum have no plan in the
majority of the March states (although the Paul campaign has waged a
systematic effort in a number of them). Governor Romney is the only
candidate prepared to compete in simultaneous contests across the
country.
Speaker Gingrich indicated Saturday night that the Southern states in
March were his strength. This is a flight of fancy and not grounded in
reality. In Virginia, Gingrich failed to qualify for the ballot.
Because only Governor Romney and Congressman Paul will be on the ballot
(and write-ins are not permitted), one candidate will receive either
all or a significant majority of Virginia's 46 bound delegates, which
are awarded to the candidate who receives more than 50% statewide and
in each CD. And Texas, which Speaker Gingrich cited as a firewall in
his bitter post-Nevada press conference, has moved from Super Tuesday
to at least April 3, and possibly as late as June.
Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Mississippi offer a mix of
proportional allocation, proportional allocation with vote thresholds,
and winner-take-all by CD rules. The bottom line is that it will be
difficult for Speaker Gingrich to take large delegate prizes from any
of these states. More likely, the delegates will be split among
multiple candidates.
In addition, Speaker Gingrich faces other March states that are far
less favorable to him: Washington, Alaska, Idaho, Massachusetts, North
Dakota, Ohio, Vermont, Guam, Kansas, Northern Marianas, Virgin Islands,
American Samoa, Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and Illinois will all be casting
votes.
Competing in the March states will take resources, a national
organization, and broad-based appeal that Speaker Gingrich, Senator
Santorum and Congressman Paul simply do not have. This is exactly the
sort of operation Governor Romney has been building from the beginning
of this campaign.
Conclusion
Speaker Gingrich's and Senator Santorum's campaigns have resource
challenges. The remaining February states may not be kind to them, and
their hopes for a comeback in March may be very difficult and based on
an incomplete understanding of the delegate selection rules. Even
"success" in a few states will not mean collecting enough delegates to
win the nomination.
In contrast, Governor Romney will be competing across the country and
collecting delegates in state after state, even if other candidates
pick up some wins. This is exactly the sort of methodical, long-haul
campaign we planned for, and we are well on the way to victory.