TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Rich Beeson, Political Director
SUBJECT: Romney’s Pro-Growth Message Rallies Republicans
DATE: March 14, 2012
While Rick Santorum is taking a victory lap after Alabama and
Mississippi, the fact remains that nothing has changed or advanced his
chances of getting the Republican nomination.
Tuesday’s results actually increased Governor Romney’s delegate lead,
while his opponents only moved closer to their date of mathematical
elimination. Governor Romney now leads in delegates over Senator
Santorum by a two-to-one margin – with at least 511 delegates to
Senator Santorum’s 256 delegates. Speaker Gingrich has 138 delegates.
The math is simple. Governor Romney gained at least 41 delegates with
his victories in Hawaii and American Samoa, and strong percentages of
the vote in Mississippi and Alabama. Last night’s results give him 50%
of all the delegates awarded to date and 45% of the delegates needed to
clinch the nomination. He has twice the number of delegates as Senator
Santorum and has received over one million votes more than Santorum in
the GOP primary contests to date.
Further, despite Senator Santorum’s wins last night, Governor Romney
has received more votes in Southern contests than Senator Santorum,
even without counting Virginia, where Santorum’s team failed to qualify
for the ballot. Governor Romney has also won more delegates in the
South to date than either Senator Santorum or Speaker Gingrich.
Santorum and Gingrich now trail Governor Romney by margins they cannot
mathematically make up. Senator Santorum is 255 delegates behind
Governor Romney and Speaker Gingrich is 373 delegates behind. In order
to win, both Santorum and Gingrich need to start netting an impossible
number of delegates to overtake Governor Romney.
In the contests since Super Tuesday, Governor Romney won at least 80
delegates, Senator Santorum won 70 and Speaker Gingrich won 24; a net
of –10 for Santorum and –56 for Speaker Gingrich. What does this mean?
To put it simply, the past week has been yet another missed opportunity
for them to close the gap. Instead of closing the gap, they watched the
gap grow.
Currently, of all the remaining delegates, Senator Santorum must win
69% and Speaker Gingrich must win 78% to reach the 1,144 delegates
necessary to win. Their track records demonstrate why this is
impossible-- so far, Senator Santorum has won only 26% of the delegates
awarded and Speaker Gingrich has won only 14%. In addition, with only
four upcoming contests (Utah, New Jersey, DC, and Delaware) truly
“winner take all,” there are limited opportunities to post large
delegate gains.
So, despite Santorum wins over the last few days in Kansas, Alabama and
Mississippi, Governor Romney’s wins over the same period in Wyoming,
the Northern Marianas, Guam, the US Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and
American Samoa have helped expand his delegate lead, pushing him closer
to the nomination.