PRESS RELEASE from the Romney for President
MEMORANDUM
To:
Interested
Parties
From:
Neil
Newhouse – Romney Campaign Pollster
Re:
The
State Of The Race: Ballot Narrowing Despite Obama Attack Ads
1.
Barack
Obama V. 2012 is not keeping up with Barack Obama V. 2008.
Four
years ago today, candidate Barack Obama led John McCain 47.0%-42.5%
(+4.5%) in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. Today, the
race
is even tighter for now President Obama. The most recent Real
Clear
Politics average puts the race at 46.8% Obama-44.4% Romney
(+2.4%).
And,
for the incumbent President to be polling well below the 50% mark does
not bode well for his re-election prospects.
2.
The ballot
is narrowing despite the Obama $28.7 million ad advantage.
According
to The Washington Post,
since the unofficial start of the general election campaign on April 10
(when Senator Santorum suspended his campaign), President Obama’s
campaign has run $51.4 million in paid television advertising, while
the Romney campaign has run $22.7 million (after having spent $87
million in winning the GOP primary). Of Obama’s $51.4 million,
more
than half of it has been in negative advertising. [1]
What
has that bought the Democrats? A closer race – Obama has slipped
and support for Gov. Romney has increased.
Real
Clear Politics Average:
| Date |
Romney |
Obama |
Advantage |
| 4/10/12 |
43.2 |
48.5 |
-5.3 |
| 7/15/12 |
44.4 |
46.8 |
-2.4 |
3.
After
weeks of negativity from the Obama campaign, the ballot is within the
margin of error.
The
three most recent national polls (released since Friday afternoon),
show the Presidential race to be a dead heat – Rasmussen has the race
tied, while both the Gallup tracking and the recent McClatchy/Marist
poll show President Obama with a two-point margin.
Most
Recent National Ballots:
| Date |
Poll |
Romney |
Obama |
Advantage |
| 7/12-14/12 |
Rasmussen
Tracking |
45% |
45% |
0 |
| 7/8-14/12 |
Gallup
Tracking |
45% |
47% |
-2 |
| 7/9-11/12 |
McClatchy/Marist |
46% |
48% |
-2 |
Further,
if
the point of the Obama negative onslaught is to undercut the
Governor’s advantage on handling the economy, recent polling would
indicate it has fallen short. In the most recently released Washington
Post/ABC
News Poll (conducted July 5-8), Governor Romney leads President Obama
48%-45% on which candidate would better handle the economy.
Bottom
Line
President
Obama’s
campaign will never have a more substantial advertising
advantage than it has had over the past few weeks, yet there is no
evidence to suggest that the ballot has moved. If throwing the kitchen
sink at Gov. Romney while leveraging a two-to-one ad-spending advantage
doesn’t move numbers for the President, that’s got to tell you
something about the state of the electorate: Voters are frustrated with
President Obama’s failure to keep his promises from the 2008 campaign
and don’t truly believe the next four years will be any different from
the last three and a half. The Obama campaign’s misleading advertising
can’t make up for the failed policies of this Administration.
To
View This Press Release Online, Click Here: http://mi.tt/OILbcE
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