TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Nick Ryan, RWB Fund
DATE: February 1, 2012
RE: State of the race
The Republican race for President has already been historic in its results and if one thing is clear, it’s that this race will be a long one and the eventual nominee will need to compete in many states to secure the nomination.
This race is still extremely unsettled and we are likely facing a long, bumpy primary season ahead. Such a scenario should not be looked upon with fear or concern for our chances of defeating Obama in the fall, as some in the party establishment would have us believe. It will be good for our party. In 2008, the Democrats went through a similar process and it did not hurt them. The tests of a long steady race will ultimately make our nominee that much stronger to face Obama in the general.
I want to share with you the state of the primary campaign and why it is now clear this race is about playing slow and steady into the spring and, most likely, early summer. This primary campaign cycle has been one of the most volatile we’ve ever witnessed with huge surges and even bigger falls – occurring on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis. For the first time ever, we have seen a presidential primary play out on national TV through an unprecedented number of debates. The rise and decline of all candidates can be directly linked to their debate performances. In the low-turnout primaries that have been held so far, the debates have almost eclipsed the effectiveness of traditional paid media, giving lesser-known candidates like Rick Santorum a great advantage.
The expectation for this race has been that Mitt Romney is the inevitable nominee. He has the experience of running four years ago and the checkbook to fund a very robust campaign. However, despite pouring tens of millions into the race so far, he has failed to truly grab the title. As the field of candidates narrows, it becomes increasingly harder for Romney to seal the deal and his opportunity for a knock out punch has come and gone.
The Mixed Results Through Florida
There have been four contests so far and three different winners. Santorum in the conservative midwest state of Iowa, Gingrich in his neighboring southern state of South Carolina and Romney in the more moderate northeast New Hampshire and in the widely varied electorate found in Florida.
Heading into Florida, the race was essentially down to three candidates – Romney, Santorum and Gingrich. The fourth, Paul, will get Libertarian votes. No more. No less. But once again, Florida’s outcome has not significantly changed the balance of the race.
Florida is a high population, expensive primary state with a complex demographic. Romney was the only candidate who played there with both a ground game and paid media. His PAC deserves credit for running a high-octane campaign to discredit Gingrich by airing TV ads and dropping mail for months. His campaign and PAC spent over $10 million in this one state. Compare that to Newt and his supporting PAC spending roughly $6 million and Santorum’s supporting PAC only $250,000. It has long been expected Romney would win Florida until Gingrich knocked him out of first with a strong South Carolina win. Although Gingrich faltered and Romney once again took the lead, he was unable to achieve the coup de grace he needed to become the nominee. If anything is clear – after $15 million spent in attacks on the top two polling candidates – two candidates emerged from Florida damaged with the conservative base of the party.
Consider Florida a wash. This race is still wide open.
February’s Smaller Contests
To better understand the path forward, we need to look no further than the primary calendar. There is a huge “break” until the next group of votes are cast. There are more than three weeks until the next debate and five weeks until the next significant election day, an eternity in this fast paced election cycle. There are a few small caucuses and primaries between – Nevada (where Romney won by 50% four years ago), Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri (where Gingrich is not even on the ballot), and Michigan (Romney’s home state). None of the candidates will sweep all these contests. In fact, they are almost assured to have different winners and produce mixed results.
Super Tuesday’s Mixed Results
Then comes Super Tuesday. March 6. This is an important day – with 10 states and over 400 delegates in play – but it still may not deliver a decisive nominee from the voters. Although the establishment and media have portrayed Romney to be the only candidate with a national campaign, it is simply not true, and frankly is not possible for any candidate to play in all of these states. They will pick and choose where they can have the biggest and best impact. Rest assured, no one candidate will win them all.
So, if Super Tuesday on March 6 is not decisive in this race? Beyond Super Tuesday it’s a long slog of state primaries. Many in traditional southern and midwestern states like Alabama, Kansas, Mississippi and Louisiana which will not bode well for Romney. No one will emerge from March with enough delegates to win. April is much of the same with Texas’s enormous 155 delegates up for grabs and Santorum’s home state of Pennsylvania. It is clear that Santorum has a huge opportunity to continue his slow and steady climb.
What Happens to Newt Gingrich
Newt Gingrich has been a volatile candidate from the beginning of this races. What if Gingrich doesn’t make it to Super Tuesday?
Newt has a tendency to implode or make unforced errors, and his surges have largely depended on making the media his foil in debates. After the past two debates in Florida, he is already on the decline and won’t have an opportunity to pull up again until late February.
What happens when voters start scrutinizing his crazy policy ideas like colonizing the moon? To underscore the potential minefield Gingrich walks on this campaign – it is not his past or his struggles with ethics that hurt him the most. To be blunt, it’s his erratic behavior and lack of discipline that lead to unforced errors and media narratives that are largely unflattering. For instance, who on earth thought heading into the Florida primary there would be any discussion of colonizing the moon and possibly giving the moon – the moon—statehood. How many lives does Newt have?
Newt Gingrich is a very smart man and clearly resilient. He has managed to remain in the race so far only because of the unique way this cycle has played out across the nation through dozens of debates. There are only so many times Gingrich can rise again from his own ashes, and his last two debate performances have failed to gain him any momentum.
While the plethora of debates have provided big highs and big lows for Gingrich, overall, they have benefited Santorum probably more than any other.
Rick Santorum’s Path to the Nomination
Simply put, Rick Santorum has grown into a serious, steady, solid conservative presidential candidate before our eyes. His blue collar background lends a genuineness lacking from the other candidates.
Santorum’s in-depth knowledge on a variety of policy topics is rarely matched and he has used the unusually large number of debates to refine his tone – a skill that was recently recognized when just days ago National Review called him “the adult in the room.”
Santorum has the best favorability rating of all the candidates remaining, largely due to his impressive policy gravitas, true conservative values and direct but respectful attacks to his opponents. Santorum has engaged the other candidates on genuine differences of policy and has not engaged in the cat fights over capitalism, wealth, tax returns, and whether or not someone is or is not a lobbyist. To that end, Santorum is the only candidate who has maintained his integrity throughout.
As for Romney, you can objectively question if he has a glass ceiling in each and every state. He holds onto roughly 25% of the vote but cannot seem to break through despite spending tens of millions – to win two state contests. When times are good for him, he can shoot up and when times are bad, he holds onto the core 25% of the party that is most comfortable with a moderate nominee.
Conservative voters looking for an alternative to Romney are turning to Gingrich and Santorum. But as we’ve outlined, Gingrich is a very volatile candidate whose campaign resembles a yo-yo. It swings wildly up and then wildly down – largely because of his own performance (both good and bad) and not because of other campaigns, TV ads, etc.
Conclusion
Time is on our side. The long primary schedule, with so many smaller states playing a critical role in deciding the Republican nominee, works to Santorum’s advantage. Look at what happened in Iowa. When voters have the opportunity to break through the static of paid media and televised debates and really get to know the candidates, they choose Santorum.
Gingrich is constantly fighting himself. Romney is fighting everyone hard – and spending harder – even in states where he should be on top. Support for both of those candidates is thin and fickle. Santorum on the other hand is slowly rising by virtue of his own hard work and conservative record.
Without access to Romney’s checkbook, this primary process plays to Rick Santorum’s advantage. When Republican primary voters look for a consensus conservative alternative to Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum is the natural favorite candidate. Once the media storylines write Newt Gingrich out of the race and his poll numbers fade, we are looking forward to a one on one contest between Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. We fully believe Rick will win that race.