| COLORADO | 9 Electoral Votes |
 |
Obama | Romney ||
Visits
||
Ad
Campaign
Colorado was very much a battleground state. Indeed, the Wesleyan Media Project (1, 2) reported that the Denver media market was the top market in the country by volume of presidential ads in the period from October 1-29, 2012.
In the Nov. 2008 general election, Democrats had a narrow registration edge — Dem. 902,444 (34.36%) to Rep. 892,791 (34.00%). At the time of the 2010 midterms Republicans had gained the advantage — Rep. 874,962 (35.32%) to Dem. 812,389 (32.79%) yet U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) was still able to eke out a narrow win over Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R). By the end of January 2012 the Republicans' registration advantage had grown further; Democrats faced a disadvantage of more than 100,000. One key to the Obama's winning Colorado in Novermber was Democrats' success in paring the registration deficit significantly in the closing months of the campaign (see table below).
The Obama campaign emphasized its ground game, reporting the following accomplishments:
- Field organizers and volunteers collected 157,000 voter registration forms [does not include online registrations].
- We knocked over 1 million doors in the last 4 days of GOTV.
- Turnout among our least likely to vote GOTV turnout tiers exceeded vote goal.
The campaigns targeted several demographic groups. According to the Census Bureau's estimate as of July 1, 2011, 20.9% of the state's population is of Hispanic origin (1,070,566 of 5,116,796) (+). The Pew Hispanic Center reported that, "Hispanics made up 14% of Colorado voters this year, up from 13% in 2008," and they supported Obama by 75% to 23% (+). Another demographic group of interest, singled out by former state GOP chair Dick Wadhams, was independent/unaffiliated women in the Denver suburbs (Jefferson and Arapahoe counties); Wadhams said those voters would be crucial.
The Commission on Presidential Debates' first presidential debate took place on Oct. 3, 2012 at the University of Denver, putting a national (and international) spotlight on the state.
Adding interest were several competitive U.S. House races, the battle for control of the state legislature, and the Amendment 64 campaign.
Critics charged Secretary of State Scott Gessler (R) had attempted to suppress the vote in a couple of ways. Gessler's office sought to prohibit counties from mailing ballots to voters deemed "inactive" (+), and it engaged in an effort to identify non-citizen voters that drew criticism from progressives (PDF, +). (ProgressNow Colorado even launched a "Gessler Watch" website). Perhaps stung by the criticism, the Secretary of State's office ran in Sept.-Oct. 2012 what it termed "the largest voter registration initiative in the state’s history," an $850,000 campaign including television, radio, print and online ads.
The majority of Coloradans voted before Election Day. 1,868,867 mail-in ballots were received and accepted (including 633,024 Democratic and 656,650 Republican) and 250,803 early vote ballots were cast (including 85,623 Democratic and 86,954 Republican). According to the United States Election Project at George Mason University, Colorado had the third highest turnout as a percentage of voting eligible population (after Minnesota and Wisconsin).
Newspaper Endorsements (Sample)
Active Registration
Colorado was very much a battleground state. Indeed, the Wesleyan Media Project (1, 2) reported that the Denver media market was the top market in the country by volume of presidential ads in the period from October 1-29, 2012.
In the Nov. 2008 general election, Democrats had a narrow registration edge — Dem. 902,444 (34.36%) to Rep. 892,791 (34.00%). At the time of the 2010 midterms Republicans had gained the advantage — Rep. 874,962 (35.32%) to Dem. 812,389 (32.79%) yet U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet (D) was still able to eke out a narrow win over Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R). By the end of January 2012 the Republicans' registration advantage had grown further; Democrats faced a disadvantage of more than 100,000. One key to the Obama's winning Colorado in Novermber was Democrats' success in paring the registration deficit significantly in the closing months of the campaign (see table below).
The Obama campaign emphasized its ground game, reporting the following accomplishments:
- Field organizers and volunteers collected 157,000 voter registration forms [does not include online registrations].
- We knocked over 1 million doors in the last 4 days of GOTV.
- Turnout among our least likely to vote GOTV turnout tiers exceeded vote goal.
The campaigns targeted several demographic groups. According to the Census Bureau's estimate as of July 1, 2011, 20.9% of the state's population is of Hispanic origin (1,070,566 of 5,116,796) (+). The Pew Hispanic Center reported that, "Hispanics made up 14% of Colorado voters this year, up from 13% in 2008," and they supported Obama by 75% to 23% (+). Another demographic group of interest, singled out by former state GOP chair Dick Wadhams, was independent/unaffiliated women in the Denver suburbs (Jefferson and Arapahoe counties); Wadhams said those voters would be crucial.
The Commission on Presidential Debates' first presidential debate took place on Oct. 3, 2012 at the University of Denver, putting a national (and international) spotlight on the state.
Adding interest were several competitive U.S. House races, the battle for control of the state legislature, and the Amendment 64 campaign.
Critics charged Secretary of State Scott Gessler (R) had attempted to suppress the vote in a couple of ways. Gessler's office sought to prohibit counties from mailing ballots to voters deemed "inactive" (+), and it engaged in an effort to identify non-citizen voters that drew criticism from progressives (PDF, +). (ProgressNow Colorado even launched a "Gessler Watch" website). Perhaps stung by the criticism, the Secretary of State's office ran in Sept.-Oct. 2012 what it termed "the largest voter registration initiative in the state’s history," an $850,000 campaign including television, radio, print and online ads.
The majority of Coloradans voted before Election Day. 1,868,867 mail-in ballots were received and accepted (including 633,024 Democratic and 656,650 Republican) and 250,803 early vote ballots were cast (including 85,623 Democratic and 86,954 Republican). According to the United States Election Project at George Mason University, Colorado had the third highest turnout as a percentage of voting eligible population (after Minnesota and Wisconsin).
Newspaper Endorsements (Sample)
| OBAMA |
ROMNEY |
| Aspen
Times
(Oct.
18,
2012)
+ Aurora Sentinel (Oct. 18, 2012) + *Cortez Journal (Oct. 22, 2012) + The Denver Post (Oct. 19, 2012) 401,120 (12) + The Daily Camera [Boulder] (Oct. 14, 2012) + *The Durango Herald (Oct. 20, 2012) + and Post Independent [Glenwood Springs] (Oct. 26, 2012) + |
*Canon City Daily Record (Oct.
22, 2012) + Colorado Springs Gazette (Oct. 2, 2012) + Daily Sentinel [Grand Junction] (Oct. 14, 2012) Longmont Times-Call (Oct. 14, 2012) + Pueblo Chieftain (Oct. 14, 2012) + *Reporter Herald [Loveland] (Oct. 13, 2012) + |
*Text of endorsement
is the same.
Active Registration
| report date |
Rep. |
Dem. |
Unaff. |
Lib. |
Grn. |
ACN |
Other |
Total |
|||
| Feb. 1 |
793,098 |
37.23 |
680,099 |
31.92 |
640,350 |
30.06 |
9,567 |
4,107 |
3,216 |
32 |
2,130,469 |
| Mar. 1 |
796,856 |
37.34 |
680,220 |
31.87 |
648,996 |
30.41 |
9,684 |
4,163 |
3,230 |
47 |
2,134,196 |
| April 1 |
803,721 |
37.08 |
685,258 |
31.62 |
660,988 |
30.50 |
9,990 |
4,242 |
3,255 |
71 |
2,167,335 |
| May 1 |
810,608 |
36.90 |
692,964 |
31.54 |
675,327 |
30.74 |
10,235 |
4,345 |
3,330 |
139 |
2,196,948 |
| June 1 |
823,266 |
36.99 |
706,480 |
31.74 |
676,068 |
30.38 |
10,977 |
4,648 |
3,743 |
303 |
2,225,485 |
| July 1 |
829,259 |
37.16 |
713,506 |
31.98 |
668,182 |
29.95 |
11,301 |
4,813 |
3,511 |
343 |
2,231,315 |
| Aug. 1 |
819,398 |
36.48 |
709,496 |
31.58 |
695,921 |
30.98 |
12,124 |
5,088 |
3,858 |
477 |
2,246,362 |
| Sept. 1 |
837,732 |
35.95 |
739,778 |
31.75 |
728,794 |
31.28 |
13,358 |
5,501 |
4,177 |
660 |
2,330,000 |
| Oct. 1 |
871,275 |
34.78 |
806,876 |
32.21 |
798,422 |
31.88 |
15,982 |
6,244 |
4,733 |
1,197 |
2,504,729 |
| Copyright © 2012, 2013 Eric M. Appleman/Democracy in Action. |
 |