MEMO from the NRCC

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL AND NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: JUNE 6, 2012
SUBJECT: CALIFORNIA PRIMARY RESULTS
 
The Democrats’ delusional plan to win back the House starts and ends in Nancy Pelosi’s home state. Democrats need to run the table in California, and a combination of redistricting and flawed Democrat candidates have dealt them a losing hand. Democrat incumbents are on the run from their records after finding themselves in totally new districts. Some have even moved in the hopes that their records wouldn’t follow them, but these Democrats still face voters unimpressed with their commitment to Washington’s job crushing policies. Meanwhile, a dynamic and diverse field of Republican candidates are holding these Democrats accountable with an outside Washington message about jobs and the economy.
 
CHALLENGERS
 
CA-03: Kim Vann (R) v. John Garamendi (D)
 
Democrat John Garamendi has found himself in one of the most competitive races we’ve seen in the Golden State in years. Redistricting has shifted Garamendi’s district from solid Democrat to a real toss-up: from a PVI of D+11 to only D+1. Meanwhile, the congressman’s own missteps, votes and campaign fumbles have put him in a dicey spot as he seeks another term. Garamendi launched an extremely early television blitz with a recycled ad from an old statewide campaign. As a result, Garamendi’s burn rate left him with only $255,000 cash on hand at the end of the last quarter. That puts Republican challenger Kim Vann at near parity with the incumbent. Why is Garamendi running scared? For starters, National Journal recently rated him more liberal than his neighboring member of Congress, Nancy Pelosi. Secondly, he faces a strong and credible challenge from Vann, a Colusa County Supervisor from a family of rice farmers, who has a mainstream message about creating jobs and growing the economy.
 
CA-09: Ricky Gill (R) v. Jerry McNerney (D)
 
Following a razor-thin victory in 2010, Democrat Jerry McNerney faces an uphill battle in his quest to stay in office. The new district he must run in is a predominantly Central Valley district making it rough territory for this long-time Bay Area politician. While McNerney can move to a new area, he can’t hide from his record. McNerney supported the failed Obama stimulus and a $500 million giveaway for the bankrupt company Solyndra, which laid off its employees. The fact that Jerry McNerney chose to support a program that sent taxpayer money to a financially unstable company like Solyndra and then received contributions from the company’s billionaire investor is an example of the very thing California voters hate about Washington politicians. This will present a real problem for McNerney as he faces Lodi native Ricky Gill in this agricultural district.  Gill, who served on the California State Board of Education, has already outraised McNerney.
  
CA-24: Abel Maldonado (R) v. Lois Capps (D)
 
Democrat Lois Capps has experienced one of the most dramatic shifts of redistricting in the state. Her Santa Barbara-area district has been downgraded from a D+12 PVI all the way down to a D+3 as the district moved inland and picked up additional Republicans. Her challenger, Republican Abel Maldonado, won the district where he’s now challenging Capps when he ran for Lt. Governor. Maldonado, a local farmer, is in the unique spot of having exceptionally high name ID for a challenger and starts out in this race with a leg-up. Combine that with his independent record and crossover appeal, and Maldonado has made this into a race.
 
 
OPEN SEATS 
 
CA-21: David Valadao (R) v. John Hernandez/Blong Xiong (D)
 
Democrats had already all but forfeited this race to Republican David Valadao, and Tuesday’s primary results confirm they have hit a dead end. Democrats had two major recruitment fails before reluctantly settling for Fresno City Councilman Blong Xiong, who was trailing fellow Democrat John Hernandez Tuesday night. In Hernandez, Democrats will be left with a candidate who has no significant resources, campaign infrastructure or national support. Contrast that to Republican David Valadao, an incredibly strong candidate who fits this Central Valley district well. Valadao, a dairy farmer, has been a pragmatic voice for his constituents at the state Capitol and will have strong crossover appeal to voters here.
 
Valadao was receiving an impressive 59 percent of vote with 88 percent of precincts reporting.
 
CA-26: Tony Strickland (R) v. Julia Brownley (D)/ Linda Parks (No Party Preference)
 
This race has been another disaster for Democrats, and Tuesday night’s returns only made matters worse for them. After two candidates in a row fled this race, the Democrat they were left with, Julia Brownley, was limping over the finish line at the end of the night. Brownley is such a weak candidate that the DCCC and their Super PAC were forced to spend over $1 million (including $200,000 in the past week) in the primary to fight off Linda Parks. Meanwhile, Republican Tony Strickland has represented much of this district already, and has been one of the top fundraisers in the country. Last quarter, he raked-in an impressive $770,000, putting him in a strong position to win this district in November.
  
CA-41: John Tavaglione (R) v. Mark Takano (D)
 
Republican John Tavaglione is running a strong campaign in this open seat. Tavaglione has been elected to the Riverside County Board of Supervisors since 1994, making him a popular elected official who is viewed as accessible and pragmatic. In contrast, Mark Takano has run for Congress twice already and lost.
 
Republican candidates received a combined 55 percent of the vote in this district Tuesday.
 
CA-47: Gary DeLong (R) v. Alan Lowenthal (D)
 
Gary DeLong is a popular Republican from the swing area of this district: Long Beach. As a city councilman here, DeLong has a record of reaching across the aisle and not only working with Democrats but winning their votes in elections. DeLong has consistently outraised Democrat Alan Lowenthal. He ends the primary with a higher cash on hand despite having had a competitive race. At a time when voters are looking for people to solve problems, DeLong will offer voters a pragmatic approach while Lowenthal is nothing but a boiler plate partisan.
 
 
INCUMBENTS
 
CA-07: Dan Lungren (R) v. Ami Bera (D)
 
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result – which is exactly what Democrats are planning for California’s 7th Congressional District this year. Fresh off a shellacking in the 2010 elections, failed Democrat candidate Ami Bera is back for another go around with the same challenges he faced when voters rejected him last time. Bera lost by 7 points despite throwing nearly $3 million at the race and outspending Republican Dan Lungren by $1 million. This Sacramento-centric district lost some Republicans in redistricting, but remains right-of-center and is close enough to the old district to make this a re-run that Bera will not want to watch. While Obama barely edged out a win in 2008 under the new district lines, President George W Bush garnered 56 percent of the vote in 2004 and Republicans carried the newly drawn district in the 2010 U.S. Senate race.
 
Lungren received an impressed 53 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s election.
 
CA-10: Jeff Denham (R) v. Jose Hernandez (D)
 
Voters will have a clear choice in this race. Republican Jeff Denham has been a check and balance in Washington during his first term in Congress. Democrat Jose Hernandez would be nothing more than a rubber stamp in the Obama-Pelosi agenda. He’s on record supporting all the failed policies that are hurting California families. While national Democrats may be eager for a loyal foot soldier, voters here are looking for a voice who will represent them, and Jeff Denham offers that.
  
CA-52: Brian Bilbray (R) v. Scott Peters/Lori Saldana (D)
 
Despite spending over $1 million, most of it his personal money, the national Democrats’ candidate Scott Peters was locked in a tight race with Lori Saldana. Republican Brian Bilbray has been a solid representative for this San Diego district, focusing on creating jobs and turning around the economy. No matter which Democrat ultimately emerges from this race, voters will be presented a real contrast on the issues. As a city councilman, Peters was the grandfather of the pension scandal that has bankrupted the city and forced potential cuts to benefits. His fiscal irresponsibility might fit in well in Washington, but that’s not what California families want.
 
CA-36: Mary Bono Mack (R) v. Raul Ruiz (D)
 
Mary Bono Mack fits this district well and is strongly positioned for reelection in November. She’s been a strong voice for her constituents in Congress, and while Democrats have sought to draw attention to this race as they always do, their candidate offers voters nothing other than the same failed policies out of Washington.
 
Bono Mack was garnering an impressive 58 percent of the vote in this district Tuesday night.