MEMO from the Republican National Committee
May 11, 2012


FROM: RNC Political Director Rick Wiley

TO: Eric Appleman

RE: Obama's Disaster in North Carolina

As part of our ongoing effort to keep you informed of our path to victory, I wanted to share exciting news concerning North Carolina -- a vital swing state and home to the Democratic National Convention.

On the heels of primary voting in the state Tuesday, I'm happy to report we're looking even stronger than before and poised for victory in November.

To be straightforward, Tuesday's primary was a huge embarrassment for President Obama and a victory for Republicans.

On Tuesday, 21 percent (or 199,426 voters) of those who voted in the Democrat primary chose "no preference" rather than voting for President Obama. This means more than one-fifth of the president's fellow Democrats chose Anyone-But-Obama on their ballots. The president's unlucky number must be 14, since these nearly 200,000 voters are fourteen times greater than the president's own 2008 win margin of 14,000 votes.

All in all, this speaks to a larger issue within the Democratic Party in North Carolina. Since 2008 nearly 48,000 voters between the ages of 18 and 25 have dropped off the voter registration rolls. Of these, nearly 40,000 were registered Democrats - 80 percent of the total voters lost. These nearly 40,000 missing young Democrats are three times the size of Obama's 2008 victory margin and represent a key coalition in the president's election strategy that will be next to impossible to contact and turn out a second time around.

In contrast, turnout and enthusiasm increased across the board for Republicans. Compared to 2008, the number of people voting Republican in the North Carolina primary increased by nearly 87 percent, or 449,060 votes. And 8,225 more voters chose a Republican ballot Tuesday than decided to choose a Democrat ballot. That's not the only good news. The RNC has opened Victory Offices in North Carolina earlier than ever before for the 2012 cycle, and we expect to see these positive Republican voting trends continue as we expand our voter outreach efforts across the state.

But for those of you who are close observers of North Carolina politics, none of this news is a surprise. Voters have seen how the president's failed economic policies have contributed to the 9.7 percent unemployment rate in North Carolina and the 1,000 jobs lost there last month. Some local Democrats like Gov. Bev Perdue, Rep. Heath Shuler and Rep. Brad Miller know this hard reality all too well, forcing them to decide not to run for office rather than face voters.

Additionally, the scandals plaguing President Obama's ground game in North Carolina and playing out in local media are reinforcing voter beliefs that Democrats are the problem - not the solution.

North Carolina's Democratic Party is currently entangled in an embarrassing sexual harassment scandal that has discredited the party's leadership and thrown President Obama's statewide campaign operations into disarray. Their executive director has resigned, and the state chairman will soon follow. The scandal will continue to play out in the local media, ensuring it stays at the forefront of voters' minds.

Meanwhile, in Greensboro, Obama staffers are taking the stand in former vice presidential candidate John Edwards' campaign finance corruption trial.

In short, what a disaster for the Obama campaign. It's safe to say the Tar Heel State is a major headache for Chicago.

But then again, there is one bright spot for the president: at least he didn't lose any delegates to a convicted prisoner like he did in West Virginia.