PRESS RELEASE from the Center
for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (CIRCLE)
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
CONTACT: Amy Steele, Luna Media Group
Youth Turnout on Super
Tuesday 5%; Paul, Santorum and Romney
Tied for Youth Support
At this Point in '08, Obama Had Drawn More
Than Twice as Many Youth
Votes as Top Three 2012 Republican Candidates Combined
MEDFORD/SOMERVILLE, Mass. –
Approximately 5% of
eligible citizens under the age of 30 participated in the Super Tuesday
contests, according to preliminary, exclusive analysis by the Center
for Information & Research on Civic Learning & Engagement (
CIRCLE).
Youth turnout was lower yesterday than it was in 2008 in all the states
that also held primaries and caucuses in 2008, partly because only the
Republican primaries were contested this year.
Combining the five Super Tuesday states in which exit polls were
conducted with adequate youth samples, CIRCLE estimates that 88,000
total youth voted for Rep. Ron Paul, with about 88,000 who voted for
former Sen. Rick Santorum, about 86,000 for former Gov. Mitt Romney,
and about 43,000 for former Speaker Newt Gingrich. These estimates
essentially show a three-way split in total youth votes for Paul,
Santorum and Romney on Super Tuesday. The candidates performed
differently in each state, however: Paul came in first among youth
voters in Virginia; Santorum, in Ohio and Tennessee; Romney, in
Massachusetts; and Gingrich, in Georgia.
In all of the primaries and caucuses so far (excluding states where
there were no exit or entrance polls about youth vote choice), youth
vote tallies stand at approximately 201,000 for Romney, 200,000 for
Paul, 162,000 for Santorum, and 87,000 for Gingrich. By this time in
the 2008 primary campaign, Barack Obama had drawn more than six times
as many youth votes as any of the Republican 2012 candidates, with
about 1,365,000 youth votes (although more primaries were contested on
or before Super Tuesday in 2008). For a graph created by CIRCLE’s team
of researchers that shows the GOP candidates' race for the youth vote
over time, please visit:
http://www.civicyouth.org/?p=3485
“So far, the Republican primary shows a strikingly even race for the
youth vote, with no candidate really winning the young Republicans’
allegiance,” said CIRCLE director Peter Levine. “The results so far
suggest that Republicans have some work to do to build youth support.”
At this point, Romney has won the youth vote in three states (Florida,
Arizona, and Massachusetts); Paul, in six states (Iowa, New Hampshire,
South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan and Virginia); Santorum, in two states
(Ohio and Tennessee); and Gingrich, in one state (Georgia).
Because of a lack of available data, the CIRCLE turnout estimates do
not include young people who participated in this year’s uncontested
Democratic primaries.
Comparisons to past years must be made with caution, because turnout is
affected by the date of the caucuses and by the nature of the
Democratic and Republican presidential campaigns, which are different
in every cycle. For example, in 2008 both the Republicans and Democrats
held primaries, but in 2012 only the Republicans held a competitive
primary.
Georgia
Youth voter turnout in the Georgia Republican primary was 5%, with just
over 70,000 young people voting on Super Tuesday. 31% of youth who
voted yesterday in Georgia chose Newt Gingrich, while 24% chose Ron
Paul and 22% voted for each Romney and Santorum. This is below the
youth turnout in Georgia on Super Tuesday in 2008, when turnout in the
Democratic and Republican primaries combined was 21%.
Massachusetts
Roughly 29,000 young people participated in yesterday’s Massachusetts
Republican primary, making up 3% of youth in the state. Half of young
people who voted did so for Romney, which represented the least support
among any age group in Massachusetts.
Ohio
While the Republican primary in Ohio was highly contested, youth
turnout was far below the 2008 primary turnout. Yesterday, 7% of Ohio
youth turned out to vote in the Republican primary, compared to 25% in
2008, when there was both a contested Democratic and Republican
primary. Roughly 131,000 young people voted yesterday, with 37%
choosing Santorum, 28% choosing Romney and 25% choosing Paul.
Oklahoma
About 26,000 young people voted in yesterday’s Republican primary in
Oklahoma, which is 5% of the state’s youth. There were not enough youth
in the exit poll sample to report young people’s vote choice.
Tennessee
Santorum received his strongest youth support yet in Tennessee,
receiving 43% of the vote from those youth who participated yesterday.
About 44,000 youth voted in the Republican primary, representing 5% of
the state’s youth, down from 2008 when both parties had contested
primaries.
Vermont
About 4,000 young people voted in yesterday’s Republican primary in
Vermont, which is 4% of the state’s youth. There were not enough youth
in the exit poll sample to report young people’s vote choice.
Virginia
While Mitt Romney took 60% of the overall vote in Virginia, he only
received 39% of the youth vote in the Virginia primary. Ron Paul won
61% of young people’s vote in the state yesterday. (Paul and Romney
were the only candidates to meet requirements to be listed on the
Virginia GOP primary ballot.) Only 2% of young people in Virginia voted
in the Republican primary, about 32,000 young people. This represents a
large decrease from the 2008 primary when 16% of Virginia youth voted
in either the Democratic or Republican primary.
Similar data for the other states that voted on Super Tuesday is not
available, as entrance or exit polls were not done in Alaska, Idaho,
North Dakota and Wyoming.
Definitions
Youth: For the purpose of this
press release and
estimation of youth participation on Super Tuesday, we define “youth”
as citizens who were eligible to vote on March 6, 2012, as permitted by
state election law.
Number of youth who participated:
An estimate of how many youth participated in caucuses or primaries.
Youth share: An estimate of the
number of young people
who participated in the primary as a percentage of the number of all
people who participated.
Youth turnout rate: An estimate
of the number of young
people who participated in caucuses or cast ballots as a percentage of
the total number of young people who were eligible to participate on
March 6, 2012.
The youth turnout rate is the best indicator of how young Americans are
engaging in the political process. The other statistics—the sheer
number of youth participants and the youth share of the electorate—can
change because of factors unrelated to youth engagement.
To sign-up to receive copies of CIRCLE's cutting-edge research on young
Americans and next-day voter turnout estimates for the 2012 elections,
please email
amy@lunamediagroup.com.
To obtain more extensive information about young voters in the
states that participated in the Super Tuesday contests, click on the
states below:
###
CIRCLE (www.civicyouth.org) is a
nonpartisan, independent, academic research center that studies young
people in politics and presents detailed data on young voters in all 50
states. CIRCLE was founded in 2001 with a generous gift from the Pew
Charitable Trusts and is part of the Jonathan M. Tisch College of
Citizenship and Public Service at Tufts University. CIRCLE's reputation
for reliable, independent, timely research has been hailed by experts
in the field of civic partnership, such as Harvard University professor
Robert Putnam who said CIRCLE had brought "the best and most serious
research to one place."
The Jonathan M. Tisch College of Citizenship and Public Service (http://activecitizen.tufts.edu/)
is
a
national leader whose model and research are setting the standard
for higher education’s role in civic engagement education. Serving
every school of Tufts University, Tisch College creates an enduring
culture that prepares students to be lifelong active citizens.
Tufts University (www.tufts.edu), located
on three Massachusetts campuses in Boston, Medford/Somerville and
Grafton, and in Talloires, France, is recognized as one of the premier
research universities in the United States. Tufts enjoys a global
reputation for academic excellence and for the preparation of students
as leaders in a wide range of professions. A growing number of
innovative teaching and research initiatives span all Tufts campuses,
and collaboration among the faculty and students in the undergraduate,
graduate, and professional programs across the university's schools is
widely encouraged.