Pundits Throw Caution to the Win
If Republicans were hoping for answers, then Super Tuesday was a super disappointment. In a fifth of the United States, the only real certainty after last night's primaries is that voters are still looking for Mr. Right. Sure, Gov. Mitt Romney won more states (and delegates), but the results for the front-runner are mixed. In Ohio, where Gov. Romney eked out a 12,360-vote win, the word "squeaker" couldn't have been used more if Stuart Little were involved. The margin of victory was so slim between Gov. Romney and Sen. Rick Santorum that the 13,848 Buckeyes who voted for non-candidates could have changed the outcome.
Even with the win, people are stunned that Romney spent five times more money than Santorum and barely beat him. "Mitt Romney has been running since 2006, has the best organization, and the most money. He won his home state of Michigan by less than 3%. He won Ohio barely after pouring in money," said Erick Erickson. Santorum cruised past Romney in the social conservative vote, with almost 75% of his Ohio totals coming from that base. He won 3-1 with voters who are looking for a candidate with "strong moral character" or a "true conservative." And, perhaps most surprisingly, he topped Romney with the state's Independents, which somewhat debunks the myth that Santorum can't compete for swing voters. Even young people between 18-29 flocked to Santorum (43% to Romney's 16% in Tennessee; 37% to 27% in Ohio). Where Romney excelled was among Buckeyes who think "beating Obama" is the most important attribute in a nominee.
The Massachusetts Governor racked up the delegates in Tuesday's contests, making him far and away the front-runner in the overall count (415 to Santorum's 176). But with next Tuesday's primaries locked in the Midwest and the South (where Romney is weakest), anything is possible. Santorum's camp, which is calling itself the MacGyver of the group, isn't giving up. "We are a very small staff doing our best... Take a look at Michigan last week," said a Santorum spokesman. "We came within three points of beating Mitt Romney in his home state, but Newt Gingrich got seven points. We could have used those seven points."
Apart from Georgia, which the Speaker won, and Virginia (where neither he nor Santorum made the ballot), Santorum beat his old congressional colleague in all eight remaining states. In every case except Tennessee and Oklahoma, the margins for the Pennsylvania senator were huge. Santorum doubled--and in some cases tripled--Gingrich's tally: Vermont 24%-8%; Massachusetts 12%-5%; Ohio 37%-15%; Oklahoma 34%-28%; Tennessee 37%-24%; North Dakota 40%-9%; Idaho 18%-2%; and Alaska 29%-14%. Gingrich has never been in a more influential position in deciding the outcome of the nomination; he could be a kingmaker if he stepped out of the race and threw his support to another candidate.