FROM: Sean Spicer, RNC Communications Director @seanspicer

TO: Interested Parties

RE: Weekend Messaging Memo

 

"The Brokered Convention." "The White Knight." "The Endless Primary."

Over the last few weeks, pundits have made some incredibly improbable predictions for the 2012 Republican primary.

But while this intense focus on the process of the primaries makes for great chatter, it has turned some myths into inaccurate conventional wisdom. The stories, forecasts, and endless buzz are no doubt engaging, but they are rooted in neither facts nor precedent.

It's time for a reality check.

Myth 1: A long primary is a bad primary

How quickly we forget recent history.

Even in early February, the pundits were lamenting an endless, arduous primary. But in 2008, the Democratic primary was contested into early June. Barely two months into the 2012 race and it's being treated as though it's vastly longer than the 5-month 2008 race.

Until the very end, Clinton and Obama were haggling over Superdelegates, waging searing attacks, and griping over DNC rules and bylaws as they scrambled for every last vote.

When Obama attacked Hillary over her healthcare plan, she famously shot back, "Shame on you Barack Obama," accusing him of lies and hypocrisy and fuming that he would dare attack another Democrat over universal healthcare.

Clinton attacked him over ties to slum lord Tony Rezko. She clobbered him with the 3am phone call. She pegged him as an elitist after he ridiculed Americans who "cling to their guns and religion."

The fights got personal, and the internecine battle was waged publicly in debate after debate and in the endless news coverage.

"A present for McCain as the other side fights" read a New York Times headline. From AFP: "Democrat Dead-Heat 'Not Good News' Says Dean." And from the Boston Globe: "McCain Media Adviser Says Democrats Hurting Themselves."

Democrat leaders issued dire warnings. "This idea of backbiting and sniping on an hourly basis is undermining our ability to win an election,"said Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT). Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) argued, "As far as the delegate count and the interests of a Democratic victory in November go, there is not a very good reason for drawing this out."

Then Barack Obama won the General Election, and Democrats, riding on his coattails, expanded their majorities in the House and Senate.

Myth 2: A short primary is a good primary

Meanwhile, John McCain wrapped up the nomination in early March, which, according to today's conventional wisdom should have given him an unbeatable advantage over his bloodied and bruised eventual rival.

If only. With the media focused on the Democrats and their ongoing primary, McCain flew largely under the radar.

But, for perhaps a better analogy, go back to 2004 when Democrats were attempting to unseat an incumbent president.

It was on March 2-today's date, in fact-that John Kerry became the de facto nominee. Eight months later, President Bush not only beat Kerry, he won more states than he did in 2000.

Compare that to Republicans' last victory over a sitting president. In 1980, Ronald Reagan did not clinch the nomination until May 20.

Myth 3: The Primary Calendar is a Result Only of the RNC Rules Change

After 2008, the RNC sought to change the primary calendar in an effort to give more states a voice in the process. The committee charged with this task unanimously approved the new calendar, which the full Republican National Committee then approved with a two-thirds vote.

Because of the proportional allocation of delegates in earlier states, it was expected this would most likely lead to a somewhat longer process. But much of the actual primary scheduling was more a function of state politics than RNC rules.

For example, California, a delegate treasure-trove with 172 delegates, chose to put their primary in June. There was no RNC policy that required this. It was a choice made in California.

Then there's Texas, with 155 delegates, whose primary would be fast approaching were it not for a prolonged redistricting process and legal battle. Again, it's unrelated to the calendar or rules put forth by the RNC.

Myth 4: The primary has turned off Republican voters

Gallup polling from yesterday says otherwise.

According to Gallup, Republicans are more enthusiastic than Democrats, 53 to 45 percent. Republicans in 2012 are more enthusiastic than Republicans in 2008 by 53 to 44 percent. And Republicans have given more thought to the election than Democrats by 70 to 58 percent.

The bottom line from Gallup: "The 2012 GOP nomination battle...has certainly provided a strong basis for Republicans to become engaged in this year's election."

In addition they point out, " Gallup's latest trial heats for the fall election show both Republican front-runners statistically tied with Obama among registered voters."

So much for that long, destructive primary.

Remember: We've only been at this for two months, and 172 out of 2286 delegates have been awarded. In a few more months, the primary will seem like a distant memory.

Ultimately, one of the four current candidates will be the Republican nominee. Our party will then unite 100 percent around him. The momentum and enthusiasm of the primaries will carry us forward toward victory in November and on to the White House.

###