Obama  |  (Romney)

The Obama campaign made some noise about Arizona being in play (+) and built a modest organization in the state, but in the end shifted resources to other states.  Republicans' more than 5 percentage point registration advantage meant that the state was always stretch for the Democrats.  The end result was very similar to 2008; the Romney/Ryan ticket obtained 53.65% of the vote compared to 53.64% for the McCain/Palin ticket in 2008. 

The principals made relatively few visits (+) to Arizona.  For the Democrats, Joe Biden did a fundraiser in Phoenix on April 19, and Michelle Obama did a fundraiser in Tucson on April 30.  On the Republican side, Mitt Romney participated in several events on April 20 and fundraisers in Scottsdale on June 25.  Both members of the Libertarian team visited.  Gary Johnson spoke at Arizona State University in Tempe on Sept. 26.  Jim Gray's Aug.15 trip included a press conference and rally with the Caravan for Peace in Phoenix; he visited again on Oct. 9-10 speaking at the Phoenix School of Law and at a Law Enforcement Against Prohibition event on Tuesday and doing a meet and greet in Yuma on Wednesday.

The state's largest newspapers split in their endorsements, as the Arizona Republic backed Romney (Oct. 21) and the Arizona Daily Star endorsed Obama (Oct. 21).

In other contests, former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona (D) fell short in the U.S. Senate race, losing to Rep. Jeff Flake (R) by three percentage points.  Democrats could point to successes in three U.S. House races where they won by margins of less than five percentage points (Ann Kirkpatrick in the 1st CD by 48.8% to 45.1%, Ron Barber in the 2nd CD by 50.4% to 49.6% and Krysten Sinema in the 9th CD by 48.7% to 44..6%).  Libertarian candidates achieved relatively strong 4- to 6-percent showings in several of these contests.  Democrats also made gains in state legislative races.

The Latino Vote
Hispanics comprise a significant proportion of the Arizona's population; according to the Census Bureau's estimate, as of July 1, 2011, 30.1% of the state's population was of Hispanic origin (1,949,294 of 6,482,505) (+).  About 90% were of Mexican origin.  According to the 2010 Census, as highlighted by the NALEO Educational Fund, 40.8% of the population of Phoenix and 41.6% of the population of Tucson were Latinos (+).  However, as Bill Hart and E.C. Hedberg note in their report "Arizona's Emerging Latino Vote," about one-third of Arizona Latino adults are not citizens and thus ineligible to vote.  Further, Hart and Hedberg note, "The state’s Latino population is substantially younger than that of non-Hispanic Whites. The median age for Arizona Latinos is 25; for non-Hispanic Whites, it
is 44."  The NALEO Educational Fund projected that Latinos would only account for 12% of the vote in 2012 (+). 

Arizona was at the center of the debate on illegal immigration as a result of S.B. 1070, the Support Our Law Enforcement and Safe Neighborhoods Act, signed into  law by Gov. Jan Brewer in April 2010.  The U.S. Supreme Court issued a mixed ruling on the law on June 25, 2012 (+).  Hart and Hedberg write that many Arizona Latinos were energized by the debate over S.B. 1070 and the charged rhetoric of recent years. The One Arizona coalition formed to turn out the Latino electorate in the 2010 mid-term elections, and member groups continued their work in the 2012 cycle.  Mi Familia Vota played an integral role in building coalitions on the c3 and c4 level.  On the ground, Mi Familia Vote engaged thousands of Latinos to register (+) and sign up on the Permanent Early Voting List (PEVL). The group registered over 7,100 new Latino voters and signed up over 19,000 Latinos on PEVL.  Arizona Advocacy Network Foundation worked on voter education and voter protection efforts (+).  These groups also kept a close watch as over 600,000 early and provisional ballot remained uncounted on Election Day (+).

Native American Vote
Arizona has the third largest Native American population of any state; there are more than 20 tribes and Indian reservations comprise more than a quarter of the land area.  The Obama campaign had a well organized national effort to attract the Native American vote.  Of note, President Obama received an early endorsement from one Arizona tribe as the San Carlos Apache Tribal Council voted to support his re-election in a Jan. 24, 2012 meeting.

	Obama		Romney		Others		Total
Apache	17,147	66.34	8,250	31.92	451	1.74	25,848
Cochise	18,546	37.85	29,497	60.19	960	1.96	49,003
Coconino	29,257	56.56	21,220	41.02	1,254	2.42	51,731
Gila	7,697	35.76	13,455	62.50	375	1.74	21,527
Graham	3,609	30.44	8,076	68.12	170	1.43	11,855
Greenlee	1,310	44.05	1,592	53.53	72	2.42	2.974
La Paz	1,880	32.88	3,714	64.96	123	2.14	5,717
Maricopa	602,288	43.75	749,885	54.48	24,385	1.77	1,376,558
Mohave	19,533	27.90	49,168	70.23	1,309	1.87	70,010
Navajo	16,945	45.39	19,884	53.26	506	1.36	37,335
Pima	201,251	52.65	174,779	45.72	6,220	1.63	382,250
Pinal	44,306	40.90	62,079	57.31	1,930	1.78	108,315
Santa Cruz	9,486	68.27	4,235	30.48	173	1.25	13,894
Yavapai	33,918	33.82	64,468	64.29	1,897	1.89	100,283
Yuma	18,059	43.05	23,352	55.66	542	1.29	41,953
Total	1,025,232	44.59	1,233,654	53.65	40,368	1.76	2,299,254

  59.9% of the votes for president cast in Maricopa County.

Notes:
Bill Hart and E.C. Hedberg.  "Arizona's Emerging Latino Vote," Arizona State University, Morrision Institute for Public Policy, Oct. 2012.